He Who Dances with the Tiger Risks Getting Bitten
Over 125 seasons, the Detroit Tigers are 9688-9575 (50.3) with 17 playoff appearances, 11 pennants, and four World Series trophies. Unfortunately, Detroit has lost the World Series in their last two appearances, and they haven't won the Fall Classic since 1984. The Verlander/Scherzer/Miggy core had a nice run with three consecutive ALCS appearances from 2011-2013. Unfortunately, they had to break up the band, and the Tigers hadn't made the playoffs since 2014, until their playoff berth last October. AJ Hinch’s club won 86 games last year in the weaker AL Central, before going on to lose to their division rival Cleveland Guardians. A team strapped for starting pitching managed to play through with Tarik Skubal and some spare parts. Reese Olson and Tarik both pitched well, and the strong pen behind them made it a tough series for Cleveland. The Guard Dogs capitalized on one bad inning from the 2024 AL Cy Young winner and scored 5 runs in the 5th to run away with the ALCS berth vs the Yankees. Despite the loss, the vision was there. Scott Harris, AJ Hinch, Jeff Greenberg, and the rest of the Tigers’ player ops group has something special here. Not only are they on the map again, they’re leading the AL Central this year with a 12-8 record and a +23 run differential. A casual MLB fan might ask; I know Skubal, who else is on that team? Let’s break the roster open and take a look.
Two Former Number One Picks Breaking Out-
So far this season, Spencer Torkelson has been the personification of the Chinese parable “He who dances with the Tiger risks getting bitten.” Tork is slugging .630 with a 1.017 OPS in 88 PA’s. Spencer is one of the Tigers’ two former number one overall picks, and he has been such a disappointment that the Tigers couldn’t guarantee him a roster spot this spring. Detroit saw his limited defensive value when they drafted him to play first base out of Arizona State, but they were expecting much more than the .693 OPS he put up from 2022-2024. So far in 2025, the numbers from Tork look legit. He has a 16.3% barrel rate and an elite .411 xwOBA. Scott Harris and company were hoping Spencer could at least hit 30 homers a year if nothing else, but he’s only 25 years old and seems to have figured something out.
Spencer Torkelson 2025 Metrics (Baseball Savant)
The Tigers had the number one overall pick two years before they took Torkleson in the COVID draft, they used it on Casey Mize out of Auburn. Mize has had a combination of underperformance and injury prior to this year, but he’s battled to get back to his old form. Casey got Tommy John in 2023, and still didn’t look like his best self last season. This year, he’s averaging 94.3 MPH on his four seam, his splitter is nasty, and he’s carrying a 2.22 xERA in his first four starts. His xBA is an excellent .167, indicating his early performance is much more than luck, and he’s generating quite a bit of soft contact according to barrel rate and hard hit rate. At this point, Mize is 27 and may never be an ace. The good news is, the Tigers already have their ace. If Mize can be a reliable #4 starter behind Tarik, Jack Flaherty and Reese, Detroit will be a formidable adversary come October.
Free Agent Additions-
The Detroit Tigers spent $77.3M in free agency this winter, with a significant portion spent to bring Jack Flaherty back to Comerica. Including his four starts this season, he has a 2.88 ERA in 22 starts as a Tiger. He was effective in LAD after the trade, but the only place Jack has looked like a front line starter since he left St. Louis is Detroit. His 4.30 xERA and 24.7% indicate regression, but he has a strong 28.7% K rate and seems primed for another solid campaign as a mid rotation starter. He’s making $25M this year, with a $10M player option, which Jack seems likely to decline unless he has a serious injury.
Tommy Kahnle joins a successful bullpen that came through in some big post season situations last year. Tommy is a changeup merchant, throwing it 73% of the time last year and holding hitters to .157 BA. It’s only April, and Kahnle is closing games with his dominant changeup. He’s a rental for $7.75M this year, but he already seems like a good signing with his performance out of the gate. Lastly, Gleyber Torres is *gasp* not in a Yankees uniform anymore. Yankee fans wanted him gone, the front office wanted him gone, and it seems like Gleyber wanted to leave. Scott Harris kept it simple with another one year signing of Gleyber for $15M. This gives flexibility to Detroit if they’re out of the race at the deadline, though it looks increasingly likely that they will be a contender. Gleyber is a bad defender, but the Tigers had a 95 wRC+ last season and needed Torres for his bat. He has a .776 OPS so far, right in line with his career .774 mark.
Tommy Kahnle Pitch % by Season (Baseball Savant)
Two Good Lefty Hitters-
The only two hitters in Detroit last year with an OPS+ over 110 were both lefty hitting outfielders, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Riley is only 24 years old, and a more well rounded player than Kerry. While he lacks the power of Carpenter, he’s an above average left fielder capable of playing center field here and there. He posted an .827 OPS and made his first All Star team last year, as part of Detroit’s new young core. Kerry is 27 and more of a DH hybrid than any kind of web gem type, but his .853 OPS more than makes up for the lack of defense. From 2024-2025, Carp is hitting .286/.34/.584/.923, which is 58% above the league average bat. The .923 OPS is actually 9th in Major League Baseball since Opening Day 2024 (minimum 350 PA), which means the Tigers have a top 10 MLB hitter.
Kerry Carpenter Standard Batting 2024-2025 (bRef)
Best Pitching Prospect in MLB
Yes, Roki Sasaki is really good. He also lacks command of his best pitch, which gives Jackson Jobe the number one spot for now in my mind. What separates Jackson is that he has four above average offerings that he can mix and match. That makes him a unicorn as a prospect, even if his command could improve a bit. His best pitch seems to be the slider, which is drawing a .115 BA in a limited sample. Jobe isn’t getting quite as much swing and miss as you might expect with a devastating slider, 97 MPH four, and three other good pitches. He’s sitting at a 17.1% K rate, not good enough for your #1 prospect trying to break out. The 50% GB rate is encouraging, as is the velocity. Time will tell if he can level up on the strikeouts, but he’s already making an impact, with a 2.70 ERA in his first four career starts. He’s still only 22, so there is plenty of room for growth for a kid who has a floor as a #4 starter and the ceiling of Cy Young awards.
Jackson Jobe Stuff+ (Fangraphs)