Grading the Rafael Devers Trade
Rafael Devers (Right) of the San Francisco Giants with Buster Posey (Left), President of Baseball Operations (Jeff Chiu/AP)
At the time of the trade, the Boston Red Sox had won five in a row, sitting half a game back in the Wild Card race. Sure, they may not win the AL East this year, but make no mistake; they are in the playoff race. So, who would have thought Boston would make likely the biggest trade of the season by trading their star slugger, Raffy Devers, to the San Francisco Giants? Painting Corners wrote out some mock trades last month as we anticipated Devers getting traded at some point this year, but even we didn’t expect an imminent deal. To me, this trade reeks of annoyance, frustration, and a final conflagration of the relationship between a star player and a historic franchise that seems increasingly apathetic about actually winning anything. Did John Henry decide he was done writing checks to a crybaby? Or did Craig Breslow engineer a trade because his models said he should? It could be a combination of the above, but one certainty is Buster Posey and Zack Minasian were ready for an opportunity to bring a star player to the Bay Area.
Boston Red Sox traded DH Rafael Devers to San Francisco Giants for LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Jordan Hicks, RHP Jose Bello and RF James Tibbs III.
Craig Breslow and the Red Sox
Talent coming in: The most valuable thing the Red Sox are getting is a fresh start and relief from a contract with over $250M left on it. The best talent acquired by Breslow and the front office in this deal is Kyle Harrison, a 23-year-old lefty starter with three years of experience in the show. He throws his four seam 65% of the time, followed by a slurve and changeup. He’ll start in Worcester to work on his secondary pitches presumably, but he’ll no doubt be up with the big league team soon given the starting pitching situation. He’s pitched to a 4.48 ERA over his young MLB career, so he’s a solid back-end starter. He’ll need a plus breaking pitch to be more than that. Jordan Hicks was a reliever that the Giants converted that went reasonably well. He put up a 4.83 ERA for the Giants, but his FIP was a markedly better 4.13. Despite his 97 MPH fastball, he’s a ground ball guy more than a swing and miss. I’m a believer in Jordan as a starter, and he’s still only 28 years old on a team-friendly 4 year/ $44M deal.
Regarding the prospects, James Tibbs is the higher profile of the two. He’s a 23-year-old left-handed hitter out of Florida State. Baseball America ranked him the 3rd best prospect in the Giants org entering 2025 behind Bryce Eldridge and Carson Whisenhunt. He has a .379 OBP with a .857 OPS in Eugene, the Giants’ high A affiliate. Tibbs has a knack for getting on base, and he has 55 grade power, but he will likely be relegated to a corner as a below-average outfielder. He has a plus arm, so he could have a home in Fenway’s right field if he can hit enough. Lastly, 20-year-old Jose Bello is a reliever in rookie ball with a four seam, cutter, slider, and changeup. His stuff will play up in the pen, as he’s recently been transitioned from the rotation out to relief. He should be able to get to the big leagues years down the line as middle relief if he can stay healthy, potentially high leverage if his slider gets even better.
2025 James Tibbs Scouting Report (Baseball America)
Talent going out: Devers was not amenable to playing 1B after being moved to DH, but it wasn’t the only conversation. There were many discussions that left Raffy feeling he wasn’t valued, and the Sox front office with the feeling that Devers wasn’t a team player or a good leader. Raffy placed in the MVP five times over the last six seasons, winning a World Series in 2018, two Silver Sluggers, and making 3 All Star teams. He’d be the best hitter on most teams, with an .877 OPS over the last five seasons. He’s on the best left-handed hitters in the league at large, but the conflict with the Boston org continued to grow until they felt it was untenable and no longer worth the production. He’s also a bad defender of course, which was part of what precipitated Boston going after star Gold Glove 3B Alex Bregman. Devers refused to play first base without the Sox committing to him there permanently, and we’ve seen the contrast with his press conference in San Francisco. The slugger expressed willingness to play first for Bob Melvin and the Giants, despite an outright refusal to play there for Boston. Once first base wasn’t an option, it greatly reduced the flexibility of the roster for the franchise, a demerit on Raffy’s value to the organization.
Rafael Devers 2021-2025 Batting Stats (bRef)
Conclusion and Final Grade: Once Breslow signed Bregman, you could feel the tension and foreshadow potential disarray within the clubhouse. It’s a shame, but it might be best for all parties. Devers wasn’t happy and neither were the Red Sox. With this deal, ownership can and should find another use for this money, while also acquiring young controllable starting pitching and a young hitter with potential. If ownership and the front office don’t spend the money they just saved, this would be an albatross of the highest order. We’ve all heard the cries from Boston fans reminiscent of 1789 France, the last thing the Red Sox should do is prove these fans right by losing their checkbook. If their next couple moves make sense, Red Sox Nation could simmer down, but it will reach a boiling point if this trade resembles the Mookie Betts debacle. Ultimately, this could be a nice retool with an opportunity to invest in the 2025 Wild Card hunt, as well as this offseason when the winter meeting rolls around.
Grade: B
Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants
Talent coming in: Simply put, the Giants have re-established themselves as a legitimate threat to the Dodgers in the NL West with this trade for Devers. They haven’t won the NL West in four years, but this year things have fallen into place. Logan Webb is having a career year, and Robbie Ray has had a career resurgence. The Giants lineup has Jung-Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames, not to mention another big year from Heliot Ramos. Familiarity breeds contempt, and the Red Sox saw a $250M DH who complained when they looked at Raffy. The Giants see their new #3 hitter, a guy that transforms their lineup at below market price (look at Soto or Vlad Jr.). The Giants have been embarrassed a few times over the last few years due to their inability to bring star players in via free agency. Farhan Zaidi wasn’t able to land the star, and Posey pulled it off in his first year at the helm by doing it via trade. It’s true the Giants will have to overlook the drama that their new star helped cause, but the drama is also the catalyst for the opportunity. If the organization hadn’t clashed with Devers to begin with, Posey wouldn’t have had the chance to pull off this deal. Because of it, they have a top 20 hitter in the MLB.
Giants New Lineup with Rafael Devers (Fangraphs)
Talent going out: The Giants are taking a risk here in acquiring a slugger with limited to no defensive value, but it was a necessary risk that makes them considerably better in the interim. They’re taking on a significant financial obligation, but they’re also losing starting pitcher depth. Posey was able to offload the 4 year/$44M deal with Jordan Hicks, a contract that I would assume they saw as a liability. Along with Hicks, former top-prospect Kyle Harrison is now also out the door. Kyle has been a bit disappointing to date, but it’s certainly a loss for an org to lose a talented 23-year-old lefty with MLB experience. Thankfully, they do have Carson Whisenhunt leading the next wave of talent, and he projects to be a solid mid rotation starter. Jose Bello is just a complex level guy with a breaking ball, but James Tibbs is a loss as the #3 prospect in the system. The Giants are counting their blessings that Breslow didn’t insist on Bryce Eldridge or Whisenhunt, and Tibbs was the next best farm talent they could offer.
Giants Starting Rotation with Verlander on the IL (Fangraphs)
Conclusion and Final Grade: These organizations are looking at the same player from an entirely different angle. There was too much history, conflict, and discontent between the Red Sox and Devers to avoid the divorce, and the Giants were able to look at Raffy with rose colored lenses. San Francisco is only a couple games back in the NL West, and I credit them for making the right move at the right time. The models every GM is using now are clearly missing something, because every model has the Red Sox winning this deal in lopsided fashion. One key ingredient here is immediate impact, the Giants have needed a 30 HR hitter for 20 years since Bonds left. They finally have their guy, and this move gives a viable lineup to score runs in a playoff series. Parting with starting pitching depth is tough in a baseball generation where you need eight to nine starters over a full year. Justin Verlander just went on the IL, and we’re already seeing how they could use Hicks and Harrison right now. To me, that’s a bigger loss than Tibbs, but it is worthwhile to take this offense to the next level without giving up Eldridge or Whisenhunt. Great job to Buster and Zack.
Grade: A
What grade would you give this trade? Let us know in the comments below.