Casey Mize and a Potential Departure from the Motor City

Casey Mize of the Detroit Tigers (USA TODAY SPORTS/Rick Osentoski)

A subplot in the miserable, no good, terrible Tigers season, in addition to the Tarik Skubal trade speculation, is that starting pitcher Casey Mize is likely leaving too. 

The 29-year-old right-hander has had a very good season so far. When healthy (he's had two IL stints), he's pitched 47.2 innings with a 2.27 ERA (2.37 FIP, 1.7 fWAR). That low ERA goes with a 26.5% K and 6.5% BB. His 20% K-BB is a career high by a large margin. In fact, his production this year has beaten nearly all of his career highs. His Statcast page is covered in red, led by a Pitching Run Value in the 88th percentile, 85th percentile average exit velo, and several other important and predictive stats (Chase %, Whiff %, K%, BB%, Hard-Hit%, Extension) in the 74th percentile or better.

Casey Mize 2026 Metrics (Baseball Savant)

Mize was born in Alabama and played baseball at Auburn. He lives in Nashville during the off-season. He was drafted 1st overall in 2018 by the Tigers and has been with the major league team since August 2020. He's had a rocky road with Detroit, as he's fought inconsistency and injuries, which culminated in him going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in June 2022. He did not pitch in 2023 as he recovered from the surgery. 

In the 2+ seasons since he's returned from Tommy John, he's seen all of his notable statistics increase in efficiency and effectiveness. He pitched 149 innings last year (ranked 72nd amongst starting pitchers), which is one inning off from his professional career total (150.1 IP in 2021). His fWAR in 2025 had him tied for 48th amongst SP with at least 100 IP. From 2025 until today, his 4.1 fWAR has him tied for 28th amongst SP.

All of these statistics point to a pitcher who, despite some chronic-ish injuries, is a very good pitcher. An argument could be made that he's a top 25 SP in today's game. People have said that a MLB player begins to find their groove between the ages of 27-29. Mize appears to fall in this trend as a pitcher who has fully healed from his surgery and has grown to understand how to pitch successfully against MLB hitters. 

Mize was drafted 1.01 on the strength of his splitter. This year, he's thrown the splitter 26.7% of the time and that has generated extremely positive results. His splitter has generated a 32.4% whiff with an average exit velocity of 81.3 mph. That means hitters are swinging and missing the pitch often and when they do make contact, they are hitting it weakly. With batters slugging .236 against the pitch, it's been his most lethal pitch. Also, his slider has produced a 34.7% whiff  and his 4-seam fastball has yielded a .180 batting average. 

The former 1.01 pick is a pending free agent this winter. The Tigers organization recently took Mize to arbitration over $20,000. Yes, it is a comically low number for an organization to fight for but it spoke volumes of how the team feels about Mize. Business is business but conversely, it’s hard for business to not feel personal. 

Ultimately, it's poor practice to take one of your foundational players to arbitration over (metaphorically) pennies on the dollar. 

I do not know how Mize feels about the city or the team that drafted him, but for the oft-injured pitcher, whatever payday he may fetch on the open market (which he assuredly will), should be worth it to him. If tight-fisted owner Chris Ilitch is going to let Skubal walk in free agency, it could stand to reason that he lets Mize walk too, which would be a bitter pill to swallow. Losing two front line starting pitchers, especially for an organization that doesn't have any notable pitching prospects in the upper minors/pipeline, would be a costly blow. That would leave Detroit with the emotionally fragile and declining Framber Valdez, who could opt-out of his deal, Troy Melton, former top prospect Jackson Jobe, and Keider Montero. 

A good comparison is Ranger Suarez. Suarez was a very effective pitcher for Philadelphia but felt a bit underrated. When he hit free agency last winter, he ended up signing a 5-year deal worth $130M. The left-hander was a similar age and his new AAV of $26M/yr feels like it's in the right range for Mize. In today's game (pending with potential salary cap), this AAV is very manageable for a pitcher who has the ability to pitch deep into games with success.

Ranger Suarez Red Sox Contract (Spotrac)

If Ilitch and POBO Scott Harris can massage the relationship, re-signing Mize makes plenty of sense for Detroit. But with Scrooge McDuck managing the purse strings, it remains to be seen if he will ante up for the team's former top pick rather than keeping Mize in the Olde English D through his prime.

About the Author

Michael L. Skupin is a grizzled millennial who loves talking about sports, being a dad/husband, and anything else. You can find him on Substack @mls07 for more baseball news. He formerly wrote under the pseudonym of Wyatt B. Lake.