2025 PC Trade Deadline Sellers Guide
Eugenio Suárez (left) and Josh Naylor (right) of the Arizona Diamondbacks (Michael Chow/USA Today)
This was supposed to be the Vlad Guerrero Jr. deadline, just like last year was supposed to be the Garrett Crochet deadline and 2023 was the Shohei Ohtani year. Of course, Vlad Jr. was extended for several years by the Toronto front office and won’t be going anywhere. That’s not to say there won’t be big players moved though, with sluggers in contract years like Josh Naylor or starting pitching with multiple years of team control like Sandy Alcantara. Major League level talent is being valued over prospects to an extent we haven’t seen in a long time. Particularly with the expanded playoff bracket, we will see the majority of teams buy or hold based on my projections, with 11-12 clubs selling at different levels of intensity. A few teams, like the White Sox and the Rockies, are probably willing to trade almost any decent player in arbitration that another team is willing to provide a top 100 prospect for. Most teams, like the Orioles for example, will likely have more players on expired contracts and will be hesitant to trade their talented guys until team control through 2026 or 2027. With the All Star Break upon us, I want to provide both a seller’s guide and a buyer’s guide, for those who aren’t quite caught up on the prospective 2025 trade deadline or even where your team stands in the buy/sell dichotomy.
The Sellers
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles may be the most disappointing team on this list, but unfortunately, playoffs are reached on wins, not potential. Baltimore has a competitive window for the next few years, but they have a glaring need for starting pitching. They’ll trade Charlie Morton, their 41-year-old replacement for Corbin Burnes, to a playoff club that needs innings from an SP4. Uncle Charlie has a 5.18 ERA, but his xERA is an entire run lower at 4.17. Zach Eflin would have fetched a nice return in previous years, but he’s gotten rocked this year and it’s gotten progressively worse each month. Tomoyuki Sugano is another innings eater with an expiring contract, though he pitches to contact and won’t miss many bats. Ryan O’Hearn is the starting DH for the AL team in the ASG game next week, he earned it with an .846 OPS. Teams will definitely pay for a middle-of-the-order hitter like O’Hearn, just as they’ll pay for a center fielder with league average offense like Cedric Mullins. Cedric is only hitting .216, but he’s a solid glove with both power and speed. Lastly, out of the pen, both Seranthony Domínguez and power lefty Gregory Soto are having good years. Soto is a lefty with a 30.7% whiff rate; teams will be clamoring for him even more if the Red Sox don’t sell on fellow lefty Aroldis Chapman.
2025 Baltimore Orioles Starting Rotation (Baseball Reference)
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland only has a 7.5% shot at grabbing a WC at this point, and they have no shot at the division crown. The main intriguing piece by far is 2X Rivera Reliever Award Winner Emmanuel Clase, who led the league for three consecutive years in saves from 2022-2024. His 0.61 ERA last season was one of the best ever, and he placed 3rd in the AL Cy Young. It feels and looks like he has taken a step back this year, but he’s only 27 and his decline could very well be temporary. Clase, the best closer of the decade, is under team control for 3+ years, so he’ll be able to net an unusually good package as a traded reliever. Typically, guys who only throw an inning at a time will not get the return of an everyday player or starting pitcher. Clase is young, affordable, and dominant– the Guardians will miss him no doubt. To soften the sting, his setup guy Cade Smith had a 1.91 last year while finishing 9th in the AL Cy Young voting; he is more than capable of taking over as the Guard Dogs’ new closer. Paul Sewald and Jakob Junis are both competent veteran relievers with expiring deals, so they are both highly likely to change uniforms as well. It’s certainly possible Carlos Santana is traded, but he’s not having a good year, and it would be a nice gesture from the front office to let Carlos finish his career in Cleveland where it all started 15 years ago.
Emmanuel Clase Season by Season MLB stats (Baseball Reference)
Kansas City Royals
The Royals have a 12% shot at a Wild Card according to Fangraphs. It’s possible the front office stands pat, but the more likely scenario is they move off of their potential rental pieces and net some younger talent. For the Royals, the main candidate with that description would likely be 2024 Cy Young contender Seth Lugo. Lugo had a career year last season after converting to the starting rotation after a successful career as a reliever. He worked a league-leading 33 starts spread over 206 innings, with 16 wins and a 3.00 ERA. Lugo has a 2.67 ERA this year, though some of his advanced metrics have slipped since 2024. Seth is only making $15M this year, but that’s a decent amount of cash for a small market club. He has a player option for the same amount next season, which he is almost certain to decline, essentially making him a rental playoff-quality frontline starter, and perhaps a unicorn this deadline. Michael Lorenzen has a mutual option with the Royals for $12M next season, and both sides almost never accept those options. Therefore, Lorenzen is also a rental, but cheaper than Lugo both in salary and talent required. He’s probably a solid SP4 on a contender, with a 4.61 ERA and 4.12 xERA in 2025 after a career year in 2024. Losing these two guys will impact the Royals’ rotation certainly, but both are due for bigger paydays this winter and hitting the open market either way.
White Sox
Pope Leo’s has improved a bit this year, but they certainly aren’t the 2005 White Sox. Staying under 100 losses this year would be a huge win, and it’s not out of reach at this point. Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery are up now, which could lead to a few guys on the roster being moved. 2B Lenyn Sosa is only 25 years old, hitting .280/.304/.460 against righties this year. He’s even arbitration eligible until 2027, so teams have a shot at a solid young hitter playing the keystone if they’re willing to provide some quality talent in return. Mike Tauchman is a 34-year-old veteran who functions well as a 4th outfielder and carries a .830 OPS right now. I’m not sure I see Luis Robert Jr. being traded this month, since he’s been one of the worst players in baseball this season. He was a prized asset, but 2026 is a $20M club option and I’m not sure he’ll even be picked up based on his .209/.277/.356 line over the last two seasons. On the pitching side, Chris Getz picked up Adrian Houser on a minor league deal this year, and he’s already more valuable than anyone could have projected. He’s got a 1.56 ERA over 9 starts, and should fetch a return this deadline as a veteran starter who can eat innings for a contender. Aaron Civale could also be an innings eater for a modest return, but he’s got a 5.17 ERA and a terrible 6.1 K-BB% so far in 2025. Lastly, the sweeper specialist Steven Wilson is under team control through 2027 and should get some interest from clubs looking for middle relief. He has a 1.59 ERA, though his xERA is 4.52 and his walk rate is 12.4%. Even still, just about every contender could use another reliever to keep the rest of the pen fresh and Wilson is a good candidate for the job.
Luis Robert Jr. MLB Profile (Baseball Reference)
Athletics
The A’s have no better shot at the playoffs this season than the White Sox; there’s no question they should be sellers to some extent. Luis Severino has given up the most hits and earned runs of anyone in the league this year; he’s hit 11 batters and 11 losses. Sevy is 0-9 with a 6.68 ERA at Sutter Health, compared to a 3.04 ERA in eight road starts this year. Teams could look at Severino to plug into their rotation, but he’s still owed about $49M on the rest of his deal. That will scare away some teams, particularly if they only need an arm to backfill for an injury. Jeffrey Springs will be 33 in September, but he’s still an effective lefty with a 3.61 ERA on the road this year. He’s making $10.5M this year, with the same salary guaranteed for 2026. The acquiring club would have a $15M club option for Springs with a $750K buyout. There isn’t a ton of other talent that will be available from this team, since the A’s do anticipate being competitive in the near future. Sean Newcomb is a crafty veteran lefty who can start or relieve, and he’s quite cheap at only $1M for the full season. There are plenty of teams who could use a lefty with experience, such as the Mets who have lost their lefties due to injuries.
Atlanta Braves
Seemingly nothing has gone right for the Braves this season, whether it be close games, injuries, or otherwise. Ozzie Albies is only hitting .219/.291/.317 this season, but he has All Star level success and he’ll cost only $7M in 2026 and 2027. It’s possible he’ll be traded this season, if Alex Anthopoulos can get enough of a return to sell low on a core player. Marcell Ozuna hit 79 HR in 2023 and 2024 combined, but he hasn’t had the same level of power this year. He’s only hitting .236 with 12HR in 2025, compared to .302 with 39 HR when he finished 4th in the NL MVP last season. He still has a .748 OPS this year though, and teams will be interested in adding a thumper with a MVP contender resume like the Big Bear. Raisel Iglesias is similar as an older veteran having a down year, 35 years old with a career worst 4.54 ERA. Still, teams like the Dodgers and Phillies could badly use Raisel even at 80% of his best self. Chris Sale won his first Cy Young at 35 years old last year with a 2.38 ERA, and he’s been almost as good this season. Sale’s only owed $18M in 2026, and he has a lengthy injury history. Atlanta could get a huge haul by selling high on the best starting pitching available, a clear step up from Seth Lugo if future Hall of Famer Chris Sale is indeed available on the market.
Miami Marlins
Former NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara finally seemed to be in better form last month after a brutal April and May. He looked more rusty from TJ than you might expect, leading the entire MLB with 73 earned runs. He regressed again after a solid June, with 11 runs in 11 innings over two July starts, fostering a debate among execs on how close Sandy is to his old self. The velocity is there– he’s averaging 97.1 MPH on his sinker and 97.4 on his four seam. His command has been rough though, and he’s leaving a lot of mistakes in the zone. Alcantara’s 2+ years of team control, as well as his Cy Young pedigree will net a large return for teams looking to acquire a frontline playoff starter, even despite his struggles this season. It’s possible the Marlins hold on and try to sell their Sandy stock closer to its former value this offseason, banking on a return to form. The Marlins top reliever available, Anthony Bender, has 2+ years of team control, and has been effective this year despite a concerning drop in strikeout rate YoY (from 25.9% to 18.7%). Lastly, their lefty slugger Jesús Sánchez will be a solid addition for a playoff team as a strong side platoon bat in the corner outfield. He has a career 99 OPS+ overall, but his numbers against RHP are substantially better. His career slash against RHP is .257/.328/.457, while his .519 career OPS vs LHP is essentially unplayable. Sánchez is under team control through 2027 just like the first two guys, and he’s worth about 1.3 bWAR per 162 games. While he’s probably not worth playing everyday, he is certainly good enough for a roster spot and a lottery ticket prospect down in the DSL or something equivalent.
Jesús Sánchez Career MLB Platoon Splits (Baseball Reference)
Washington Nationals
The Nats don’t have a superstar to trade like they did back in 2022, but they do have a brighter future because of the infamous Soto trade. They netted their current shortstop in CJ Abrams, an MVP candidate in James Wood, their ace in MacKenzie Gore, not to mention Robert Hassell Jr. and #2 club prospect Jarlin Susana. Since the Nationals could be competitive in 2026, it wouldn’t really make sense to sell low on Nathanial Lowe (no pun intended). However, Josh Bell will be moved if the new leadership can get anything for him. Bell is hitting .217 with a .679 OPS and no defensive value, but his xSLG is .448. He’s got a solid K-BB rate, and his bat speed is still there. I suspect Bell will be a cheap power source, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that he's a switch hitter. Since Mike Rizzo was fired after a long tenure, you’ll likely see the front office play it safe until they know their roster. I would imagine they’ll take offers for their closer Kyle Finnegan, who is sporting a 2.36 ERA and 18 saves in a career year. If they can get anything for Andrew “The Sheriff” Chafin”, he’ll likely be on the move after 20 solid appearances for DC. Similar to Josh Bell, Michael Soroka’s advanced metrics are much better than his leading numbers. He’s got a 5.35 ERA, but a 3.19 ERA and .219 xBA. He’ll probably yield the biggest return of the four, since he can get you 15-18 outs in a game, and provide stability to an open starter spot. All four guys are potential rentals and will likely play in another uniform a few weeks from now.
Josh Bell 2025 MLB Metrics (Baseball Savant)
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are out of the playoff picture for 2025 and have been for some time. The question is whether they’ll sell on guys who could help the Pirates in 2026 and beyond or not. Due to the thin talent pool at third base right now, there have been Ke’Bryan Hayes rumors, but it’s hard to imagine a club taking on that contract for a guy who has a .576 OPS over the last two years. There have also been plenty of rumors regarding Bryan Reynolds, but he’s having his worst season since the Covid shortened 2020 season. Reynolds is hitting .224/.287/.368, not regarded as a good defender, and Bryan is still owed about $80M in guaranteed money. Isiah Kiner-Falefa or IKF, is good as gone because he’s an above average defender at multiple infield positions, most notably shortstop. He’s one of the most shortstop viable options on the market right now, if not the most. While his glove is valued, he has a career .662 OPS and has little pop in his bat.
IKF’s contract is affordable as well. He’s only owed a couple million dollars in the last few months of the year; affordability only adds to his market value. While Mitch Keller is unlikely to be moved after signing an extension in 2024, his rotation mate Andrew Heaney is basically guaranteed to be moved as a veteran lefty hitting the market in November. The Heandog had a bumpy June after a hot start to the year, but he’s durable, cheap, and keeps his ERA around 4.50 or better consistently. Lastly, All Star closer David Bednar has a 2.70 ERA this year after a disastrous 2024 in which he lost the closer role and got briefly demoted to AAA. He is under team control for 2026 as well, so it may be tempting for Ben Cherington to cash on Bednar while he has closer level value again.
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Martinez is playing on a QO right now, and hasn’t been worth the $21M salary so far given his 4.85 ERA. Still, he has success historically and teams will likely have to part with very little other than paying the remainder of his salary. Martinez won’t blow you away with his strikeout numbers or his ground ball rate, but he can succeed as a reliever or a starter and he had back to back good seasons in 2023 and 2024. Emilio Pagán and Taylor Rogers are both having good years out of the Cinci pen, and their 2026 FA leads to trades at the deadline. Austin Hays has an .819 OPS after an off year in 2024, and he’s hitting .366.422/.732 in 45 PA’s against LHP in 2025. There are plenty of strong side platoon options available, but Hays is a rare, weak-side platoon guy in this market who can mash against lefties (career .821 OPS). Austin signed a one year prove-it deal last winter. Now the Reds will cash in on Hays before he cashes in himself this offseason after a bounceback year.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The two obvious position players on the move are two talented guys putting up numbers in contract years, Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. Eugenio is older at 33, but he has the advantage of playing third base as opposed to first, and plays it at roughly average level. With his bat and the thin 3rd base market, that makes him quite valuable to several teams. 29 HR and a 135 OPS+ would be valuable even as a DH to be fair, but teams won’t be able to find any comparable hitter at the hot corner this year unless Alex Bregman somehow becomes available from Boston. Naylor is hitting 2.95 with a 128 OPS+, within the vicinity of his teammate’s production from across the diamond. On the pitching side of things, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are also in contract years, but Gallen has been awful. He has a 5.66 ERA at home this year, and has an ERA closer to 6.00 overall for much of this year before two dominant July starts. Teams have noticed though and many folks seem to think Gallen is back to his typical form, just in time for Mike Hazen to trade him. Kelly has less ceiling of course, but he also seemingly has a higher floor with a 3.41 ERA in 19 starts. It could also be worth noting that Merrill was 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA for the 2023 World Series run, when the Snakes ultimately lost to the red hot Texas Rangers. Lastly, the reinvented Shelby Miller has a 1.98 ERA this season as the closer, with a nasty four seam/split combo that seemingly no one can hit right now. Over the last three seasons, he has kept his WHIP under 1.00 in all three campaigns with a 2.96 ERA over 124 games.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies will probably stave off the threat of losing more games than the historically terrible 2024 White Sox, but it’ll be tight. This organization is poorly run in almost every way, but there’s a couple guys worth talking about. In the context of the deadline, Ryan McMahon is the only position player both available and somewhat interesting. Ry Mac is making $12M this year, $16M in both 2026 and 2027. Nolan Arenado is the main reason why Ryan hasn’t won a Gold Glove yet, but he has an elite 78 runs saved at the hot corner over his career. However, he does carry a career 29.1% K rate, and a 32.2% K rate this season. His standard hitting numbers can be a bit deceiving from playing at Coors, but we can use OPS+ as it adjusts for parks. From 2021-2025, Ryan has a .741 OPS but only a 95 OPS+, he is about 5% below average as an MLB hitter. Still, with his durability and glove, he can be a valuable player as long as he doesn’t kill you defensively. Every club needing a third baseman will want Eugenio Suárez, but only one club can get him. The next phone call will likely be to Colorado, assuming Alex Bregman isn’t moved this deadline.
Ryan McMahon Rockies Contract (Spotrac)
Germán Márquez is a free agent after 2025, after playing 10 years for the Monfort family. Márquez pitched to a 2.97 ERA and 8.6K/9 in June, after a rough start to the year. Clubs looking for an innings eater on the cheap will likely be interested in the veteran workhorse. Lastly, 29 yo reliever Jake Bird has 3+ years of team control, along with swing and miss stuff. Bird has a 3.62 ERA, a 27.4% K rate, and a nasty sweeper. 2025 might not be the year he gets moved, but he almost certainly will before he hits the open market in 2029.
A Few Clubs on the Fence
With the Red Sox recently getting hot, their playoff odds currently inch closer to 50% every day. According to Fangraphs, they have a 44.9% chance at a playoff berth right now, which to me is high enough to keep Aroldis Chapman and Alex Bregman. Apparently, AJ Preller and the Padres want Jarren Duran badly, and the Red Sox have a crowded outfield with Jarren, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, and Cedanne Rafaela all in the mix. The Rays are right above them at 48.6%, and could part with some of their arbitration guys in contract years. They have team options for 2026 on guys like Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, but it’s possible they move their salaries for young MLB ready guys. Zack Littell is a free agent in a few months, has a 3.56 ERA in 19 starts, and could help the Rays or someone else down the stretch. That would be disheartening to see considering the success of this club, but we can’t rule out the possibility given the team’s history.
Some other teams in limbo are the Cardinals, Twins, and the Rangers, who are below 30% chance of making the playoffs rather than over 40%. The Texas Rangers have a few arms in contract years like Tyler Mahle and Patrick Corbin that they could flip, but it may make more sense for them to sit and see if they can make a run via the AL Wild Card. Adolis García has had an OPS under .700 in back-to-back years, but a club could buy low and get him for the rest of 2025, as well as 2026. The Twins are probably fielding calls on controllable arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, but I don’t see them selling themselves out of contention for 2026. Clubs playing Wild Cards have moved relievers in the past for quick returns, while holding onto their core. This could fit the Twins, who have two dominant relievers in both Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax. Harrison Bader could be a hired gun for a team needing a strong outfield glove capable of playing centerfield, and the Twins could net a solid prospect for him without having to sacrifice a core part of their lineup. Lastly, the Cardinals are unusual for this list in that they were not projected as a playoff team by almost anyone. They are playing well over the level expected, and they find themselves with a solid 28.9% shot at the playoffs and a 23.8% chance at a Wild Card specifically. There aren’t a lot of guys in contract years on this roster, Miles Mikolas is but he’s not particularly valuable. Their other veteran starter Erick Fedde had decent value this past winter, but he’s regressed and looks like a SP5 again. I do think there is a really solid chance the Cards move Ryan Helsley, simply because he’s an elite closer in a contract year that could net them a decent return. Is it worth holding onto him for a sub 30% chance at the playoffs? Probably not, considering the strength of the rest of the roster.