Phillies Trade Deadline Primer
Taylor Ward of the Baltimore Orioles (Photo by Joe Sargent/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The Phillies are far from a perfect team, but they have managed the best record in the Majors since announcing Don Mattingly as manager. At the core of this team is still a championship caliber foundation, but there are some things around the edges that need to be ironed out if they want to compete against the top teams in the National League.
In order to draft a strategy for the upcoming deadline, we'll look into the team's statistical weaknesses and which players likely to be on the selling block could help.
Right handed bats that get on base.
Phillies lineup sorted by OPS (Baseball Reference)
The Phillies do not have a single right handed batter with an OPS north of .700 on the team this season. This has caused the team to struggle mightily against left handers; they are ranking bottom five in the league in batting average and on-base percentage against lefties. The Phillies as a whole also rank bottom five in walks drawn this year, an issue that has followed the team from seasons past, with a swing-happy approach that has struggled in prior postseasons. To try and fix both of these issues at once, I looked at a couple potential trade targets specifically in the outfield where the Phillies still have some holes even after the Derek Hill trade:
Lane Thomas - OF (KC): Lane Thomas would be an affordable piece as he is only signed on a deal for 1-year/ $5.5M. Thomas has experience playing in center field, a great arm and a good approach at the plate – almost never chasing and whiffing very little. His .350 OBP would rank third in the Phillies organization this year and his .716 OPS would be the highest among any right handed bats. The Royals seem to be out of contention already with a young core that can afford the luxury of patience. While he is not the biggest upgrade it would be a cheap addition that can give Philly some depth.
Thomas´s approach, defense and running percentiles
Taylor Ward - Corner OF (BAL): Ward is a less likely alternative given that the Orioles are better positioned than the Royals in the standings and his contract is bigger than that of Thomas, but he is the better batter and therefore would be my ideal candidate. Similarly to Thomas, he has shown some tremendous plate discipline that would immediately give the lineup a different look; he has a walk rate that ranks top-5 in the Majors. Unlike Thomas, Ward is probably exclusively a left fielder, but he may provide the upside of some power as he hit 25 or more homers in each of the last two years with the Angels, although those numbers have not yet translated to this season in Baltimore. Ward is on a 1-year/$12M deal so he would not be super expensive either, it will be more so a matter of whether the Orioles want to move him.
Taylor Ward stats in the last 3 seasons
Ketel Marte - Second Baseman (ARI): The Diamondbacks GM has already shut down the rumors surrounding a potential Marte trade, but let's allow ourselves to believe that was a simple PR move. If the D-Backs are open to moving Marte then the Phillies should go all-in on him even if the fit is not perfect in principle. As much as I like Stott, he is nowhere near the caliber of player that Marte is and would be the center piece of a Phillies offer with top prospects attached. Marte is a three-time All-Star and a two-time Silver-Slugger and has finished top-5 in MVP voting twice in his career. More importantly, Marte crushes lefties which is exactly what this team needs. Despite the D-Backs playing .500 baseball so far this season, they have 5 teams positioned ahead of them for the last wild-card and the rumours of discomfort in the organization with their superstar may push them to finally make the move. We are all allowed to dream.
Marte’s career numbers against left-handers
Starting Pitching Depth
Aaron Nola
The Phillies have one of the best one-two punches at the top of the rotation with Sánchez and Wheeler, but they will need more help beyond that if they want to compete. Luzardo has been hit or miss so far, and while he has the upside of a playoff starter, there is still a lot of season to be played and the Phillies need more assurances. Nola has been terrible and Painter has been sent down to the Minors, so who can help round out this rotation?.
Antonio Senzatela (COL): Senzatela’s value may never be higher than now, yet he would still be a cost-effective option. He is one of the National League’s best relievers, throwing 40 innings with a 2.23 ERA this season. Senzatela was a starter in his career before this season and while his numbers were not good, there are two reasons to believe he could give the Phillies some useful depth. The first reason is simple, half of his game as a starter was in Coors Field and we know what that place does to a pitcher. The second reason is he has revamped his pitching arsenal and mix this season. He cut down the usage of his four-seamer and added a cutter and a sinker which are now his second and third most used pitches. With the Rockies having the worst record in the Majors, they may be willing to give up Senzatela easily, making him a flyer the Phils can afford to take.
Senzatela’s pitch mix in 2026
Casey Mize (DET): Detroit may be preparing to sell if they don’t turn it around soon and while Skubs is the crown jewel, Mize is another important asset they may dispose of, especially with the season he is having. Mize is a former number one pick and is pitching for a 2.58 ERA in 10 games this year. He has playoff experience and boasts a 4.02 ERA in almost 100 career starts with the Tigers. Mize will be a free agent next year and I believe the Tigers may be inclined to move him, regardless whether they keep Skubal or not. If they plan to keep Tarik, they may not have enough money to re-sign both and if they don’t re-sign Skubal, then they might trade him for a younger pitching prospect more in-line with their young core of position-playing prospects.
Casey Mize stats last two seasons (Baseball Reference)
Joe Ryan (MIN): This would be the dream scenario for the Phillies and so it is obviously the most unlikely. The Twins have been better than expected this season, only 2 games back from the last American League wild card spot. Ryan is a front-of-the-line starter and has been for the last 3 years with a 3.39 ERA in 69 starts since 2024. Not only would he give the Phillies a fourth playoff-quality starter right now, but he is also in his arbitration years and would not reach free agency until 2028 when Zack Wheeler’s contract is scheduled to come off the books. Minnesota has been reluctant to move him in each of the last two seasons, so it will be interesting to see whether they retain him again or decide to shop him now while they can bargain with the team control.
Joe Ryan stats last three seasons (Baseball Reference)
Lefty Reliever
This is, in my opinion, the least of the Phillies concerns right now so I will be brief. Alvarado and Banks have not been good, to the point that Banks was sent down to Triple-A. Mayza has been good, but you need more than one lefty reliever to compete, as evidenced by the Mariners last year, so here are some options to look at as a partner for Mayza.
Sam Moll (CIN): Moll has been really good this year, and he’s had an ERA under 3.5 in 3 of his last 4 seasons. At 34 years old there is not a lot of upside, therefore it should also be little cost. With another year of control and currently earning the league minimum there is little risk.
Aroldis Chapman (BOS): This would be going all in. The Red Sox have the worst record in the AL East and Chapman is on an expensive deal. Despite his age, ¨The Cuban Missile¨ is still one of the best relievers in the game with 60 saves and an ERA under 2.50 since the start of 2024. Chapman has a mutual option for 2027 so the Phillies could get him off the books then if needed be.