The End Of An Era With Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander of the Tigers (MLB.com)
Justin Verlander recently announced his retirement at the end of this season, concluding a legendary 23-season career. He joins Clayton Kershaw, Joe Kelly, Charlie Morton, and others as recent retirees after their respective mythical careers. Let’s take a stroll down memory lane in celebration of one of baseball’s best.
Verlander was taken second overall by the Tigers in the 2004 draft, behind Matt Bush, out of Old Dominion University.
Baseball America’s initial draft report on the then-21-year-old noted that he had the highest upside anywhere in the draft. The report expressed concerns over Verlander’s control, citing his ODU stats concerning 48 strikeouts in 38 innings despite 21 walks. An anonymous AL scouting director cited in the report expressed a hopeful notion that Verlander had the potential to become a true ace.
He was right. That draft yielded a number of All-Stars, especially in the first round, but none had pro careers like Verlander. He was called up quickly and made his Major League debut at age 22 on July 4, 2005. The rookie allowed four runs off seven hits over 5.1 innings. The Tigers lost that game to the Cleveland Indians 5-4. Justin made just one more start that year, but the upside of such an athletic, high-velocity arm was very clear despite woes with command and durability.
Such fears were thrown out the window after Verlander’s 2006. He went 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA over 186 innings. He wasn’t the strikeout artist and Cy Young winner yet, but he helped the Tigers turn it around after an 119-loss season in 2003 and make it to the World Series. He tossed 5 innings in Game 1, but allowed 6 earned because Albert Pujols could hit anything in 2006. Verlander was excellent in the regular season, but struggled in the same manner as Clayton Kershaw when he reached October. Regardless, he was awarded the AL Rookie of the Year for his loud entrance into the league.
In 2007, Verlander improved his record to 18-6 with a 3.66 ERA and 183 Ks and made his first All-Star appearance. The main high point of the season was his no hitter against the Brewers, the first no-no in 55 years for the Tigers franchise. That outing was just a taste of what was to come for the entire league. Verlander was more than just durable, he was often more dominant as the lineup turned over for a second, third, and sometimes fourth time. He threw 101 mph in his 103rd pitch of that game against the Brewers just to be sure every hitter promptly sat down in the dugout.
2008 was nearly the opposite, Verlander led the league in losses with a 4.84 ERA despite taking the ball for 201 innings. The concerns of command and pitchability came back to bite the Tigers ace… but not for long. In 2009, Verlander went 19-9 with a 3.45 ERA and led the league with 269 strikeouts. He finished third in AL Cy Young voting that year. It was at this point that Justin had established himself as one of the most suffocating starters in baseball history. He managed to post similar numbers in 2010 and sign a five-year, $80 million commitment to stay with Detroit.
Verlander’s career became remarkably dramatic during his peak. His 2011 season was one of the best of his career, as he won the Triple Crown by leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. He won the AL MVP, becoming the first pitcher to do so since 1992, and the only one until the emergence of Shohei Ohtani, who of course is a two way player. Justin put up another no-no, this time against the Blue Jays. It was at this point that going to see a Verlander start might mean you were going to witness history. 2012 was similar, but Verlander missed the Cy Young in one of the closest AL races in history. Justin put away concerns about his postseason abilities when he tossed a CGSO in Game 5 of the ALDS to send the Oakland Athletics home. Detroit then swept the Yankees to put Verlander back into a World Series rotation. October luck came back to bite him when Pablo Sandoval went on an absolute tear in Game 1 to ruin the flamethrower’s day. His luck finally flipped in 2013 after a slight step back during the regular season, but he crushed the A’s (again), then Boston in the ALCS.
The first real decline scare came during his 10th big league season where he needed core muscle surgery. He recovered well, but posted his worst ERA since 2008 while Max Scherzer won the Cy Young. 2015 was full of injuries too, as a triceps strain and lingering fatigue sidelined the ace. When he did return, Verlander looked just like himself with a 3.38 ERA. 2016 was the first year where Statcast managed to capture his dominance, albeit with “diminished” velocity.
Justin Verlander Advanced Metrics 2016 (Baseball Savant)
2016 Cy Young voting was a massive controversy for the right-hander. He was narrowly beaten out by former teammate Rick Porcello. Regardless, Verlander had pivoted to a mix more focused on smart sequencing rather than just blowing away hitters with a heater up and a curveball down (though he still did plenty of that). Verlander was then traded to Houston, where he put his postseason woes behind him to become the ALCS MVP and help the Astros win the 2017 World Series (but they may have been helped more by creatively banging on a trash can). Oh right, he also married Kate Upton in Italy.
The Tuscan Wedding of Kate Upton and Justin Verlander by KT Merry
2018 proved that his veteran-style approach and strong sequencing was no fluke. He posted a 2.52 ERA with 290 strikeouts and led the majors with a 0.90 WHIP… and then he was snubbed in Cy Young voting by Blake Snell who had a shinier ERA. Still having something to prove, Verlander tossed another no hitter against the Blue Jays and won the Cy Young in 2019. The only real struggle of his season was the very end, where the October struggles returned and the Astros lost the World Series to the Nationals.
Injury came back to haunt Justin, who needed Tommy John surgery in 2020. For context, he had already been pitching for 21 years without a significant elbow injury. The ‘21 season was lost to rehab and many thought the decline the league had been waiting for was finally coming.
That didn’t happen. In 2022, he posted arguably one of his best seasons ever when he posted a 1.75 ERA and won his third AL Cy Young unanimously. Locations, managed contact, and pinpoint command brought Verlander his final Cy Young award, not just throwing 240 innings and spamming 100 mph at the top of the zone as he did with the Tigers.
Verlander’s “decline” started after his storied 2022. He signed with the Mets, but quickly strained his teres major. He still posted a 3.15 ERA with the Mets before being traded back to the ‘Stros. In 2024, the injuries continued to pile up as he landed on the IL for shoulder inflammation and neck discomfort. His elite stuff had diminished and he finished the season with a 5.48 ERA. His historic durability still led him to sign with the Giants at age 42, where he finished the year with a 3.85 ERA and 137 Ks.
Detroit brought the former ace back home for one final season. He’s been sidelined by hip and hamstring injuries and recently announced his intent to retire at the end of this season. He’s been honored with Manfred Jr.’s “legend pick” for this year’s Midsummer classic.
As of July 8th, Verlander is the oldest active MLB player at 43, and will end his career with the following:
2006 Rookie of the Year
3x Cy Young Awards
10 All-Star Selections
2022 AL Comeback Player of the Year
2x World Series Champion
2017 ALCS MVP
2011 American League MVP
All of this as well as over 3,500 innings pitched, over 3,500 Ks, and a YTD record of 266-159 and a career 3.33 ERA. Justin Verlander has pitched since George W. Bush was president, the publication of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, and the launch of YouTube. Verlander’s 21-year MLB career can drink, skydive, rent a car, and play high-stakes bingo.
To steal a Moneyball line, how can you not be romantic about baseball, especially when there are careers like that of Justin Verlander. He pitched alongside Hunter Brown in 2022, who grew up watching him and even modeled his mechanics after the Cy Young winner. Tarik Skubal was giddy when he found out he would share a rotation with the Tigers legend.
When we’re all 80 and every pitcher averages 99 mph with pinpoint command, we’ll likely say that pitchers in the olden days were better. Names like Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Jacob DeGrom, and particularly Justin Verlander will dominate those arguments until the end of time.
About the Author:
This article was produced by amateur stat nerd and pitching enthusiast Ransom Fassett, you can find him and more deep-dive reviews on Substack.