Buying into the High Stock that is Franklin Arias
Photo Credit: MLB Pipeline X Account
If you are a Boston Red Sox fan, this has been a nightmare of a baseball season. The team is 12 games under .500 for the first time since 1997 and they are only in the wild card mix because the American League is in a historically bad place. The recent injury updates regarding Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet used whatever wind was left in the sails, leaving the Red Sox nation stuck in the middle of the Atlantic with little direction or plan from ownership.
If there is any type of excitement the fans can have and should have, it’s turning to the pipeline. The Red Sox have plenty of promise still with Anthony Eyanson leading the way onto the mound. For the position player group, Franklin Arias continues to soar up the prospect rankings and fans can buy into the stock.
Red Sox 2026 Top 5 Prospects (BaseballAmerica)
Pinch me if you’ve heard that before. After the Red Sox parted ways with their veterans after 2022, all signs pointed towards looking at the future. The draft selections made in particular to Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, and Roman signaled that they were the “second coming” and the trio that would help take this proud franchise to the land of milk and honey. The front office paraded those three right in our faces for years and preached patience.
Anthony has shown a lot of promise since being brought into the fold. He started off slower, which was expected, but once he got on a roll he became the center piece of the Red Sox offense. In 2025, Anthony overall slashed .292/.396/.463/.859. His ability to make hard contact, get on base, and to see the ball as well as he can is really admirable for a 21 year old. Injuries have hindered the start of his career, but the ceiling is sky high. Kristian Campbell, remains a mystery. He signed the contract extension, made the Opening Day roster, won the rookie of the month (April 2025), and had a horrendous month of May where he was ultimately sent back down to Worcester, where he is currently playing. You can argue the Red Sox stunted his development and the results are what they are right now. Campbell is hitting .222 with a .651 OPS and a 81 wRC+. His role further in the organization remains a mystery.
Then you get to Marcelo Mayer, who has yet to play a fully healthy season. However, he has impressed at the MLB level mainly with his defense. Mayer has been great at second base and also at shortstop, ultimately where he was pegged to play since draft night. Although, the bat remains to be a tough go of things, as he’s hitting .224 with a .600 OPS. He’s struggled mightily against offspeed and breaking pitches, but can crush fastballs. Fans were very excited for these players, but with Arias it feels different.
Whatever is going on down in the minors with the bat speed program, it is working. Numerous hitting prospects have thrived this season such as Henry Godbout, Justin Gonzales, and Arias. Arias makes much more sense, especially when you compare him to Mayer and the type of power and hit tool he’s shown.
Arias started the 2025 season in Salem and then got the promotion to Greenville. He did finish the year with ten games in Portland, where he showed flashes of his power (slugged .435) and raised his ISO from .115 in High-A to .175. You could see it potentially turning a corner and it indeed has started this season.
Arias has spent the entire year with the Portland Sea Dogs and what he has done this season has turned major heads. Arias raised his batting average from .278 to .317, on base percentage .335 to .399, slugging percentage from .388 to .582, and his OPS .723 to .981. The slugging is the most notable and the ISO (isolated power) rising from .111 overall to .265. That’s a major jump. Last season, he hit eight home runs combined between all minor league systems and this year he has already hit 13.
For comparison, Mayer never showed that type of power in Portland nor even in Worcester. In 2023 (Portland) Mayer slugged .355 and did see it rise to .480 in 2024. The main thing with Mayer is that the power has yet to translate to the MLB level. It’s strange because in Worcester in 2025, Mayer had a hard hit rate of 48.5%, which was huge. For Arias there’s belief that the power will translate to the MLB level when the time comes.
Marcelo Mayer’s Scouting Grades in 2024 (Baseball America)
His approach is great, ranking in the 97th percentile for strikeout rate, doesn’t swing and miss, and makes plenty of contact in the zone. One thing Arias does have compared to Mayer is the display of isolated power, which makes him more of a threat in the lineup.
Something the Red Sox should not do is stunt Arias’ development. Let him cook and cook slowly. You can sense that they rushed Campbell and brought Mayer up out of need. For Arias, as exciting as he is, the Red Sox don’t need to rush it.
It’s very early and it’s very easy to get excited about prospects, but there is a case to be made that Arias’ ceiling could potentially be higher than what Mayer and even Campbell were projected to be. Given the position he plays, he’s a player that is on the radar to fill a void.