PC Top 10 Starting Pitchers in MLB
Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Teams are hunting stuff+ like Phoenicians hunting for figs, particularly forward-thinking clubs like the Dodgers and Rays. You have guys like Jacob DeGrom, who is probably the nastiest pitcher of his generation, but only averaged nine starts over the last four years. There seems to be a correlation with velocity, particularly velocity + spin, and injuries. Most front offices expect to use somewhere between seven and ten starters over a full year, so innings and starts are highly-valued assets. Aaron Nola has thrown an MLB-leading 778 innings over the last four seasons to the tune of a 3.95 ERA, and earned a 7-year/ $172M extension from the Phillies for his reliability. With consistency in mind, this list will convey our top picks to perform over a full MLB season, which includes the postseason, of course. For me, a playoff workhorse like Nathan Eovaldi gets a boost from his playoff sheet, particularly when he went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA on the Rangers’ WS run. Track record is important, but upside is a factor. A young starter with electric stuff like Hunter Greene has more upside than a crafty sinker baller veteran like Jose Quintana. We attempted to balance the force in the clash of archetypes – sinkerballers vs. fly ball pitchers, stuff+ vs. durability, track record vs upside – as we made our ranking, here.
Top 10
1. Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers
The reigning AL Cy Young award winner has now posted back-to-back sub 1.00 WHIP seasons, but last year, he topped 150 innings for the first time in his MLB career. He threw 192 regular innings and won the Triple Crown before carrying his team to the ALDS. Opponents posted a sub-.250 wOBA against Tarik’s main three pitches: his four seam, change, and sinker. His fourth and fifth pitches both drew batting averages under .170, so no one could really hit any of his pitches the entire year. He continued the dominance into October, with a 2.37 ERA over three postseason starts. The last piece for Skubal was health and now we’ve seen him do it both over a full season and in the big games. He’s only 28 years old; the lefty has demonstrated his status as the best pitcher in the game.
Tarik Skubal 2024 Pitch Tracking (Baseball Savant)
2. Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies
Believe it or not, Zack Wheeler is the MLB leader in ERA (min. 500 innings) from 2022- 2024. His 3.01 ERA paces ahead of both Framber and Corbin. When the Mets let Wheeler go, they thought he was a mid-rotation starter, while Wheeler saw himself as a frontline guy. Not only has Zack proved he’s an ace, he’s the best starter in the National League right now. He’s a combination of durable, nasty, and clutch. Wheeler turns 35 in May, but he’s also coming off a career year, leading the NL with a 0.955 WHIP and 6.3 hits/9. We can’t talk about him without mentioning his 2.18 career playoff ERA. The NL Cy Young runner-up is a big part of why the Phillies have had deep October runs the last few years.
3. Paul Skenes – Pittsburgh Pirates
After only 23 starts last season, Paul Skenes has already found himself to be a consensus top three starter in Major League baseball. He had an elite 33.1% K rate, a 1.96 ERA, and few hitters could touch either of his fastballs even though he threw them a combined 81% of the time. He throws his four seamer about 40% of the time, and averages about 99 miles an hour with it. Opponents hit only .184 vs. his two seam in 2024, and only .102 vs his sweeper (5-49). In 2025, we could be discussing Skenes as the #1 pitcher in the MLB. More importantly to folks in Pittsburgh, could the Pirates actually be relevant again?
Paul Skenes 2024 Pitch Tracking (Baseball Savant)
4. Corbin Burnes – Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin surprised most in the MLB community when he signed with the Snakes – at least until everyone learned he lived in the area. Burnes projects to age well; he’s a workhorse, and he’s got multiple plus pitches. His cutter has been one of the best pitches in the league for much of his career, but batters hit .251 against it last year and as a result, he tweaked the usage from 55.4% to 45%. Over the last five years, we’ve seen Corbin’s K rate from 36.7% all the way down to a career low 23.1% in 2024. Though I expect that rate to buoy back to the mean, it was actually a positive indicator for me that Burnes put up a 2.92 ERA despite a career worst strikeout rate. He’s a gamer, and I expect him to continue putting a 3.00 ERA over 30 or so starts. His ceiling is another Cy Young award, but his floor is pretty high given his durability and he’s still only 30 years old.
5. Logan Webb-San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb always seems to go under the radar, largely because he doesn’t have much starpower. What he lacks in overpowering stuff, he provides in consistency. He’s a groundball machine, finishing fourth in the MLB last year with a 56.8% GB rate in 2024. He has durability in spades; he’s led the league in innings in back-to-back seasons, and he’s started at least 32 games each of the last three seasons. His changeup has gotten hit a bit in recent years, prompting Logan to increase his sinker usage and dropping his changeup usage all the way down to 11.5% from 30.5% year-over-year. A plus, offspeed offering could take Webb’s game to the next level. He’s 28 years old and has room to make one more jump to enter Cy Young territory.
6. Garrett Crochet – Boston Red Sox
Crochet is a converted reliever, and the White Sox actually did something well when they moved him to the starter role. His funky, unorthodox delivery from the left side is reminiscent of Chris Sale, as is the K rate. Crochet’s 35.1% K rate (98th percentile) was superior even to Paul Skenes, and he managed a 0.95 WHIP in the first half last year. Unfortunately, he went 0-6 with a 5.12 ERA and seemed to wear down a bit down the stretch. I would guess apathy played a small role; it couldn’t have been easy to get charged up to pitch for the worst team in MLB history. Now, he’s in Boston on a contender, and looking to earn the 6yr/$170M contract that Jeff Passan just announced as I’m writing this. I expect Garrett will get top-of-the-ballot votes this year for AL Cy Young, and he has a good shot to win it if he manages to cross the 150 inning threshold.
7. Cole Ragans – Kansas City Royals
John wrote a masterpiece on why baseball nerds love Cole Ragans – two main reasons being the development of a devastating slider (33.7% whiff in 2024) and an improved windup. Ragans was a lottery ticket middle reliever when the Royals acquired him for Aroldis Chapman from the Texas Rangers, and has since paid off. Cole almost immediately turned heads with a 2.64 ERA and 11.2 K/9 in his 12 KC starts back in 2023. He carried the success over to 2024, and cemented his status as the ace of the Royals with a 3.14 ERA and 5.0 bWAR. Cole finished fourth in the AL Cy Young, and led the league in K/9. His chase rate was 62nd percentile, but his whiff was 90th, indicating guys are swinging through his pitches that are in the zone. His repertoire is highly effective – mostly four seam, changeup and slider – but I’d like to see him throw the knuckle curve a bit more in 2025. Ragans has super high upside, but he is not without risk as a 2X TJ surgery recipient.
Cole Ragans Pitch % by Season (Baseball Savant)
8. Logan Gilbert – Seattle Mariners
It would be valid to say that Logan plays in a pitcher-friendly park, but T-Mobile has nothing to do with his MLB’s best pitching extension and an excellent 4.6% BB rate. Similar to Ragans, Gilbert’s 2024 campaign solidified his status as the ace of his team. He threw an MLB-leading 208.2 innings, and provided a 3.23 ERA – a half run better than 2023. One major difference in his style was that his trademark slider became his number one pitch, and his split-finger fastball roughly doubled in usage. The result was a more balanced attack, and hitters had to think about the slider, four seam, and split in any given at bat. Logan is 6’6”, pretty lanky, but extremely durable. His insane 7’6” extension also results in his pitches being extremely difficult to pick up and his velocity plays up as well. Like Crochet, Gilbert is in line for an extension, especially after the Mariners extended his buddy, Cal Raleigh. He’s averaged a 3.38 ERA and 32 starts a year from 2022-2024, and I’m projecting a bit of a bump in performance given his constant pitch tinkering and contract motivation.
9. Blake Snell – Los Angeles Dodgers
If we were to put guys in a binary workhorse/dominant split, Snell would be firmly in the nasty and dominant box. He’s a 2X Cy Young award winner, one in each league, and those are the only two seasons he’s thrown over 130 innings. He’s another dominant, funky, lefty – a theme on this list – and his 34.7% K rate last year was 98th percentile. He missed Spring Training last year when Scott Boras botched his free agency, but the Seattle native went 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA after the AS break when he was settled in. The curveball is his wipeout pitch; opponents hit .111 with 1 HR in 138 PA last season. He’s a four pitch guy and all of them are very good. Because of the curveball dominance, he’s kicked up the usage quite a bit. The main drawback to Blake, apart from his lack of durability, is his control. He does tend to lose the strike zone sometimes, as evidenced by a 10.8% BB rate last year. Even when he isn’t walking guys, he gets into more full counts than any Cy Young caliber pitcher I’ve seen. Due to this, he’s often a five and dive starter and very rarely goes seven innings. Still, there’s almost no one I’d rather have for those five innings than Snellzilla.
Blake Snell Seasons by Innings (bRef)
10. Framber Valdez- Houston Astros
Framber is the groundball king, leading the MLB with a 60.6% GB rate in 2024. He’s been the mainstay of this Astros rotation for years, even more so with the recent departure of Justin Verlander. Valdez throws his sinker about half the time, and his curve around 35%, with a changeup and slider mixed in. Opponents hit only .121 vs his curve last year and the sinker generated a boatload of groundballs. Framber is a free agent after 2025, and he’s highly likely to be traded if the Astros aren’t competitive this summer. He’ll likely be durable and perform either way during the regular season, though his playoff struggles are worth noting. He’s 0-4 with an 8.27 ERA over his last four postseason starts, and carries a career 4.34 playoff ERA. I’d like to see him shake it off, but that is a concern for me if he’s throwing game one for my club in a division series.
Honorable Mentions:
11. Max Fried- New York Yankees
12. George Kirby – Seattle Mariners
13. Yoshinobu Yamamoto- Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Spencer Strider- Atlanta Braves
15. Dylan Cease- San Diego Padres
16. Chris Sale – Atlanta Braves
Max Fried is another ground ball machine, performing reliably as a front-end starter every year. Kirby and Cease are solid frontline starters who simply don’t yet have the resume or metrics to justify beating anyone in the PC Top 10. Yamamoto was impressive in his stateside debut, but we need to see him perform over a full season. Spencer Strider is coming off TJ surgery, but will likely find himself on my top 10 if he returns to form. His teammate, Chris Sale, missed my top 10 despite winning the NL Cy. This is due to health (60 starts since 2020), and the fact that he’s 36 years old coming off his first full season workload in years. More on Dylan Cease: he’s a clear frontline starter, but he’s now three years removed from his only truly dominant season in 2022 when he put up a 2.20 ERA and earned runner-up placement in the NL Cy. Please note guys like Gerrit Cole (TJ), Shohei, DeGrom, and Tyler Glasnow received demerits due to either their current or past health circumstances. For Ohtani, I’d be surprised if he threw more than 100 innings this season coming off of the TJ surgery and being slow-rolled by the Dodger staff. Glasnow and DeGrom are simply hurt too often. While he looked dominant in his 1st 2025 start vs the Red Sox, I can’t have DeGrom on my top 10 list when he’s thrown less than 200 innings over the last four years combined. To see a featured list of these guys, make sure to tune into John’s nastiest pitchers list coming out soon.