Tarik for Cy Young?
Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers (MLB)
The Tigers are having a typical, borderline year, currently sitting in 4th place with a 28-28 record. The main bright spot has been the 1-2 punch of Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson in the starting rotation. Olson is only 24 and has a 1.92 ERA in his first 10 starts this year, while Skubal has a 2.01 ERA and 10.7 K/9. In fact, the Seattle University alum was listed at +225 for the AL Cy Young by Bet MGM just three days ago, making him the Cy Young favorite by a comfortable margin. This is his first arbitration year, giving the Tigers two more years of Skubal — assuming he tests the market in 2027.
Tarik Skubal Profile Overview (BRef)
I was one of many baseball fans to tag Skubal as a sleeper for the Cy Young. At the very least, I figured he’d be a top 25 arm in the league if he stayed healthy. Based on his 2023 results alone, you can extrapolate a 2.80 ERA over a full season of starts. That’s elite. He’s managed to stay off of many casual fans’ radars since he has yet to throw 150 innings in a season or pitch in a playoff game. This year, however, Skubal has left little to interpretation, leading the league with a 0.821 WHIP and a 2.05 FIP through 11 starts. His best pitch is probably his 97 MPH four seam fastball; opponents have a .152 BA against it this year, .206 last year. However, Tarik isn’t a one dimensional, lefty big fastball guy. Both his changeup and sinker have produced solid value this season. He’s still working on the slider, but the 32.1 K% on the pitch is encouraging.
Tarik Skubal 2024 Pitch Distribution (Savant)
Who is Skubal’s competition for AL Cy Young? The field benefits from reigning Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole, missing the first two months of the year. Seth Lugo and Luis Castillo are two veterans listed over +1000 — long shots, essentially. It’s possible one of these guys will finally put it all together, but to me it’s more likely that an emerging arm in the summit years gets hot and steals this thing. When you look at Castillo for example, he has a 3.74 xERA and has given up a lot of hard contact. It’s more likely than not he’ll finish the year with an ERA over 3.50. When you look at the AL ERA leaders below, the biggest threats to Skubal are probably Houck, rookie Luis Gil, and the 2021 NL winner, Corbin Burnes. Swing and miss numbers do positively correlate with high-end performance numbers, as do high ground ball rates. Skubal has the 2nd highest K rate in this group behind Gil, and generates more ground balls than him. Gil has been borderline unhittable, but he does walk a batter every other inning. Corbin Burnes doesn’t have the K rates of either guy, but he already has the Cy Young resume and he’s the ace of a playoff caliber club. Finally, Tanner Houck has somehow managed a 0.13 HR rate, predicated on a 2.4% HR/FB rate, which is unsustainably low. He’s also been aided though, limiting his walks and throwing strikes. I doubt Houck will win the Cy Young, but he’s certainly leveled up this season as a frontline starter for the Sox.
2024 AL ERA Leaders (Fangraphs)
Ostensibly, Skubal should be the favorite for the Cy Young at this time. However, guys are blowing out their elbows left and right, while there are also several high quality arms with good numbers this year competing for the esteemed award. I’m rooting for Skubal, not only as someone close to Seattle U, but also because the Tigers deserve to have a player worthy of winning an MVP or a Cy Young. They’re overdue for one– 2011 Verlander, 2013 Mad Max, and 2013 Miggy Cabrera are all from an era long ago.
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*Stats are as of 5/31/24