Grading the HUGE Winter Week moves
Garrett Crochet, formerly of the Chicago White Sox (Duane Burleson/AP)
Dec 7: Giants signed SS Willy Adames to a seven-year contract worth $182M
Buster Posey made his first big splash as the official head of baseball operations, and he landed the first long-term deal to a free agent star player that San Francisco has seen in quite awhile. At Painting Corners, we had originally projected six years for Willy, and I do think seven is a bit of stretch for a guy whose value largely depends on his ability to play short. Oracle is dead last in the MLB by park factor for home runs right now, which is not exactly ideal for Willy. Additionally, his defensive numbers are all over the board and 2024 metrics suggest he took a step back on the glove side of the ball. That said, when you contextualize the Giants’ failure to land marquee free agents in recent years, the longer deal is worth the risk. Willy is a “3 and D” type guy, 30 homers a year and up the middle defense. He’s got about average contact ability, hitting around .240 year to year, and he’ll provide stability in Oracle Park to arguably the most important position in the game right now. An added bonus is the reputation Adames carries as a clubhouse leader and as a high character guy.
Giants Grade: C+
2024 Home Run Park Factor (Baseball Savant)
Dec 8: Mets signed slugger Juan Soto for 15 years, $765M with no deferrals
New Mets owner Steve Cohen was actually feeling pessimistic about his chances of landing the superstar before he got the call from Scott. Obviously, this was an overpay purely from a baseball standpoint. Juan Soto is a world-beating slugger, but he’s a below-average defender who probably won’t be able to stay in RF for more than four or five years. This contract was also possible thanks in no small part to his youth; he’s barely 26 years old and could still get even better. He broke the 13-year contract record Bryce Harper had, while also crushing Shohei Ohtani’s $46M luxury tax AAV record. For that reason, fans of teams who lost out, like the Yankees and Red Sox, claim to be relieved that their club didn’t sign him. The reality is though, you do want your team to be able to land the superstar, from both a talent-attraction standpoint and a statement for all fans, teams, etc around the league to hear. Cohen made that statement by beating the Yankees in the final bid, and made it clear the Mets are no longer satisfied with being the little brother over in Queens. This is a franchise-altering signing for the Mets that makes them a playoff threat, and it simultaneously creates a conversation around the Mets-Yankees rivalry once again. The Mets are already estimated to be $12M over the CBT threshold right now. It remains to be seen how long Cohen will pay massive tax bills, but there is no way around the fact the Mets need at least one more starting pitcher and a few other pieces.
Mets Grade: A Juan Soto Graphic (John Crowley, Painting Corners)
Dec 10: Blue Jays acquire 2B Andrés Giménez and RHP Nick Sandlin to Toronto Blue Jays for 1B Spencer Horwitz and OF Nick Mitchell.
Andrés Giménez stabilizes 2B for Toronto and gives them a premier defender up the middle for perhaps the best 2B-SS double play combination in the league. Giménez is a 3X GG and 2X Fielding Bible winner, and also brought home the prestigious platinum glove back in 2023. He got paid after a huge 2022, in which he hit .297, flashed power and speed, and provided elite defense. This performance culminated in a 7.4 bWAR, which was enough evidence for Cleveland to give him a seven-year, $106M deal that also carried him through his team control seasons. Back in 2022, it looked like the Guardians replaced Lindor rather easily, with a stud middle infielder who could put an .800 OPS as one of the best defenders in the league.
Fast forward to 2024, Andrés has watched his OPS and bWAR drop for three consecutive seasons. He only put up a .638 OPS, with bottom-of-the-league numbers for hard hit rate, barrel rate, exit velo, and bat speed. He is only 26 years old, but that’s a lot of cash to take on for a premium defender if he’s going to hit .250 with a .300 OBP and 10 homers a year. Toronto thinks they can turn him around, and they were willing to part with 1B Spencer Horwitz to make it happen. The Nick Sandlin throw-in is nice as an additional lower leverage bullpen arm, but I don’t see it as particularly consequential. The thing here that I like even less than the diminishing offensive profile of Andrés is the weird fit for Toronto. If they can’t re-sign Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette, aren’t they blowing it up? Seems like an odd move.
Jays Grade: C-
Dec 10: Yankees sign LHP Max Fried to 8 year, $218M deal
After losing out on Juan Soto, Brian Cashman didn’t miss a beat and took Max Fried off the board with a massive deal. Per the graphic below, Max Fried owns the best ERA over the last three years in the MLB (min 350 innings), with a 2.80 ERA that edges out Cy Young winners Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell. Fried doesn’t have the nasty stuff that Skubal and Snell have, but he’s got elite command, with multiple pitches to keep pitchers off balance. Max is 31 in January, but he’s actually been pretty healthy outside of the throwing arm stiffness he experienced in 2023. It was evident this past postseason that the Yankees were light on big-time starting pitching. The 4.19 ERA from their pitching staff in October ranked 8th out of the 12 starting rotations. This was buoyed substantially by Gerrit Cole’s dominant 2.17 ERA, while Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Rodón, and Luis Gil also had ERA north of 5.25.
The options for an elite starter on the free agent market were Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes. Blake seemed destined to stay on the West Coast, while Corbin was being courted by four or five teams. Sure, Roki Sasaki could be a possibility, but it’s a long shot for the Yankees at best. The Red Sox seemed likely to pay the highest price for Garrett Crochet even at the time of the Fried signing, and the Yankees don’t have the right prospects for a trade of that magnitude anyway. This was the right signing for Cashman and the Yankees, to get a lefty ace with consistent and reliable production. With or without Soto, they needed a stud like Max to help Cole stabilize this rotation. An added bonus is the Fried signing makes Cortes expendable, making the Devin Williams trade possible. The eight-year deal is a year too long, but sometimes that’s what it’s going to take to set your offer apart in this crazy pitching market.
Yankees Grade: A-
Dec 11: The Red Sox acquired lefty ace Garrett Crochet for C Kyle Teel, OF Braden Montgomery, 3B Chase Meidroth and RHP Wikelman Gonzalez.
Craig Breslow made his first blockbuster move of his tenure in Boston a few days after losing the Soto bid, acquiring the ace who had to be traded for. Crochet has a four seamer that obliterates hitters, and his stuff stood the test of conversion from reliever to starter. Steamer projects him for a 3.02 ERA over 31 starts in 2025, which would make him one of the top starts in the American League. While Garrett has only started for one year, he has top-of-the-scale swing and miss stuff, with the four seamer and cutter both being dominant. He’s only 25 years old, and he’s under team control for two more years. Breslow will likely be looking to negotiate an extension right away, similar to the Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers last year.
No question, the White Sox got a haul back for their talented left-handed ace. They now have six of the top 60 prospects in baseball according to MLB.com, after acquiring #25 Kyle Teel and #54 Braden Montgomery in this deal. Teel is athletic, he’s got a good arm behind the plate and his hitting ability is well beyond the typical 22-year-old catcher. Montgomery is Boston’s 1st rounder from 2024, so we need a better sample on him, but he is known to have a high floor because of his athleticism and power. Gonzalez and Meidroth are less perfect prospects with warts, but even still, either guy could blossom into an All Star. This is a heavy price, but as Breslow stated, this is what a 25-year-old ace costs in 2024. Boston could also afford to do this because of their top-of-the-scale farm system. They were able to pull this off without giving up Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer– a win for the Boston front office. It remains to be seen if Crochet can make 30 starts a year, and stay healthy through October. This is a risk for Boston, especially until they manage to extend him. It’s a risk they had to take.
Red Sox Grade: B+
Dec 13: Yankees acquired closer Devin Williams to New York Yankees for LHP Nestor Cortes and 2B Caleb Durbin
Nestor Cortes seemed destined for trade after giving up the Freddie Freeman walk-off homer, and then furthermore once fellow lefty Max Fried was signed the day prior to the Devin Williams trade. Nestor is under team control for one more year, same as Williams. While Nestor is less dominant and more of a mid-rotation starter, he’s a candidate for 30 starts and has more potential for impact over a regular season because he’ll throw more innings than Williams. That said, being able to acquire arguably the best closer in the National League for a starter that you don’t need and might not even make your rotation anyway is a pretty nice move. Caleb Durbin is an undersized middle infielder with elite bat-to-ball skills. Because of his size and lack of power, he probably has the ceiling of a utility player. Throwing in Durbin makes this an overpay in vacuum, but not in the Yankees case. New York clearly had bullpen problems against both the Guardians and the Dodgers. Luke Weaver was fine stepping in for Clay Holmes, but I’d much rather have the guy with the best ERA in baseball over the last three years. Weaver can now step back into his setup role, while Williams can be the big time, shut-down closer he’s been for years. My only concern here is the playoff performance of Williams, he’s struggled in multiple Octobers. This is an overpay that benefits Milwaukee, but elite closers are hard to acquire and I’m not sure Helsley could be acquired for this package. Cashman went out and got the guy they needed for the 9th inning. This move will look good for the Yanks if Williams is in form down the stretch in 2025.
Yankees Grade: C+
Dec 13: Cubs acquired RF Kyle Tucker to Chicago Cubs for 3B Isaac Paredes, RHP Hayden Wesneski and 3B Cam Smith.
This move sends opposite messages for the Cubs and the Astros. For Houston, this is a signal from Jim Crane that the Astros are no longer the bully on the block, and they wanted to get something for Kyle Tucker. They let Alex Bregman get to free agency without an extension or a trade, and now they stand to lose him with only a comp pick. Dana Brown had the right idea here, but he came up with a decent gift package for Joe Espada. Isaac Paredes is under team control for three more years, and negates the need to bring back Bregman. The Astros system is weak enough for Cam Smith to immediately ascend to number one in the system, highlighting the urgency for Dana Brown to replenish this farm system. Finally, Wesnecki is a solid swingman who can spot, start, and throw multiple innings out of the pen.
On the Cubs side, Paredes was a disaster in Chicago after the deadline; he hit .223/.325/.307. They’re selling low on Isaac a bit, but I’m OK with cutting bait on a guy who just didn’t seem comfortable on the Cubs roster. Cam Smith is a tough loss for the farm system with a 55 hit tool and 60-grade arm. This is the cost for a year of Kyle Tucker, and you have to accept as a front office that you will trade away a few prospects that become All Stars. The Cubs have something right now, with Steele and Imanaga heading a solid rotation. The offense was roughly average in 2024, and with Kyle Tucker they are likely a top-10 lineup in baseball. From 2021-2024, Kyle Tucker is 6th in the AL and 10th in the MLB with a 145 wRC+. Most of the guys above him on the list, like Vlad Jr. and Yordan Alvarez, are first basemen or designated hitters. Tucker is a solid right fielder, hits .275 with 30 HR and 25-30 stolen bags a year. He’s also coming off a career high .419 wOBA and he’s only 28 years old. He’s easily the best player on this Chicago team and makes them the favorite in the NL Central. Jed Hoyer needs to add another player or two, but this deal makes the Cubs a serious contender again. This is an even better deal if the Cubs manage to extend Tucker before spring training.
Cubs Grade: A-
*Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, MLB.com & Baseball Savant