PC 2025 MLB Futures
Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals (Getty Images)
A few important clarifications on these MLB future bets: this should not be taken as professional advice or particularly seriously in any sense, this is purely recreational. For those who don’t know, MLB future bets are long-term, season-long bets made at the beginning of the season. For instance, will Shohei steal 50 bags again, or will the Red Sox win the AL East? I used the Draft Kings lines, but you can get better lines if you shop around. Lastly, units can essentially be converted to a %. For example, 3 units means 3% of your bank (3 units for $1000 bank is a $30 bet.) 3%-5% is really the highest number you should have for a particular wager, if you plan on utilizing that bank for a year or more. Let’s ride!
HR Prop
1. Bobby Witt Jr. to hit 30+ HR: 3 Units @ -135
2. Bobby to hit 35+: 1 Unit @ +175
Kauffman Stadium is spacious– only 14 of Bobby’s 32 HR were hit in KC in 2024, while 18 were hit on the road. Witt led the Major Leagues by far in HR-xHR delta with a 6.3 figure, meaning he was expected to hit around 38.3 homers. 2nd in this obscure derivative is his teammate Salvador Perez, with a -4.6 HR-xHR Delta. Witt hit 30 HR in back-to-back seasons, and he had elite exit velocity last season despite not striking out at a 15% clip. He’s not known for his power, Bobby is a superstar who just won a batting title and finished 2nd in the MVP, but I think he’s close to automatic for 30 bombs if he’s healthy all season.
2024 HR-XHR Delta Leaders (Baseball Savant)
Awards Prop
1. Bobby Witt Jr. to win MVP: 1 Unit @ +450
Let’s stay Bobby wins another Gold Glove and hits .330 with 30 bombs, would he win the MVP then? Well, if Aaron Judge misses any playing time, Bobby’s the favorite to win it. When you consider that Aaron turns 33 in April and he’s a huge guy, it’s not hard to imagine him missing time from some kind of injury. If Witt Jr. stays healthy, José Ramírez and Gunnar Henderson are his main competition after Judge. José has the power, speed, and glove tools, but he’s unlikely to hit .330. Gunnar has 35+ power, but he’s not going to steal more than 25 bags or hit much higher than .290.
Team O/U Props
1. Reds Over 78.5 Wins: 3 Units @ -115
2. Reds to win World Series: 1 Unit @ +9000
In 2024, the Reds had to deal with a PED suspension from Noelvi Marté, an awful performance from Jeimer Candelario after signing a multiyear contract, and only winning 77 games despite a +5 run differential. Fangraphs is projecting 78 wins for the Reds this season just like Draftkings, and I’m not seeing the math. Matt McLain was lost to injury last year after breaking out in 2023, while other guys stayed healthy but put up sophomore slumps. If Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits 30 bombs, Elly gets into the MVP convo, etc., I’m expecting this Reds offense to bounce back in a big way. PBO Nick Krall has done a great job of putting together a solid pitching staff in the most HR friendly park, and I like the ‘Brady Singer for Jonathan India’ deal. I’m expecting the Reds to finish somewhere in the 83 win range, and I’m confident they’ll break out more than the Pirates in 2025.
2024 MLB Win Loss (Fangraphs)
3. Cardinals Under 77.5: 3 units @ -105
The Cardinals didn’t have enough starting pitching, and they limped through the season trying to find arms last year. Bloom and Mozeliak didn’t do anything to alleviate that burden this winter– they have the same rotation they had at the end of last season. Erick Fedde is very solid as a #2 behind Sonny Gray, but most folks are expecting him to be traded at some point this season, along with Ryan Helsley and Nolan Arenado. 78 Wins seems ambitious for a team trying to trade away all of their good players, particularly when you consider they barely did anything to improve their big league roster this offseason. I’m sure there will be a few breakouts, perhaps Jordan Walker or Quinn Matthews will have a career year. Even if they both do, this team will have a hard time pushing past 75-75 wins if they’re sellers at the trade deadline.