What's Going On With the Padres?
Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres (K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune/TNS)
The San Diego Padres are in a race against time. They’ve chased October with big name deals trying to win one for Seidler. The big names could be leaving soon, and it’s time for the Friars to fish or cut bait from forever seeming like MLB’s most expensive, quiet yawn. It’s do or die time in San Diego.
The Padres have only gotten past the NLDS once in the 21st century, when they lost the NLCS 4-1 to the Phillies back in 2022. Manny Machado finished 2nd in the MVP that year, with San Diego acquiring Juan Soto at the deadline in exchange for a haul of prospects. Darvish, Musgrove, and Snell were the top 3 in the rotation, while Josh Hader was acquired from the Brewers to shut down ninth innings.
Fast forward to 2024, Hader and Snell were wooed elsewhere. The Padres re-tooled and traded Soto’s lofty salary for a bunch of organizational pitching depth. The Padres are 32-34 with a +6 run differential, and they’ve lost five games in a row entering Friday. What happened to Preller going all in? Where are the pennants? They haven’t even won the division since 2006 in the Bruce Bochy era (Dodgers have won 10 of the last 11 seasons), and now we’re sitting in June looking at another Padres team with a mediocre record.
Padres Multi-Year Performance (bRef)
First, I’ll say I generally love the aggressive front office philosophy that Preller practices. Many of the moves have not worked out, but some have. Luis Arráez for example is hitting .374 in his first 130 plate appearances in a San Diego uniform and his at bats are must-watch television. Another stellar signing was Ha-Seong Kim for four years, $28M, four years ago. He’s going to hit the market this offseason and looks to secure himself a nine figure deal. Finally, the Padres went all-in (yet again) and traded for Dylan Cease, arguably the best starting pitcher on the market at the time, and he’s been solid so far this year. Despite all this, Kim is a free agent in three months. In November 2025, Arráez and Cease hit the market as well.
Luis Arraez Profile (bRef)
Aside from looming free agents, the Padres have three big expensive question marks. San Diego has three year players with contracts north of $275M in TCV (Total Contract Value). These three massive deals are Machado, Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts. Manny has generally been quite good as a Padre, but he’s struggled this season post-injury, hitting .248/.311/.374 as of Friday morning. Tatis Jr. only has a 119 wRC+ in the two seasons since his year-long PED suspension. Since he is a Platinum glove outfielder as well, that’s highly valuable production — but it’s multiple tranches below his pre-suspension (.293/.369/.596 and a 160 wRC+). This drop in performance is the difference between MVP level and All-Star level. Finally, Xander is hitting .219/.265/.316 in year two of a 11 year, $280M deal and he’s already been moved from short to second. Objectively, the Padres owe these three guys a ton of money and they’re not getting the cumulative performance they need from this group.
Padres Multi Year Contracts (Spotrac)
The Padres have made moves to go “all in” several times over the last ten years or so. This was the era of the late Peter Seidler (rest in peace), the beloved owner who has invested more in this team than anyone really expected. It was moving how much devotion to the club Peter brought to the fanbase. Since Seidler’s ownership, Preller and the Padres made the obvious move to reset their luxury tax this season, presumably to re-tool and make needle-moving additions this August and then again at the GM Winter Meetings.
The Padres have underperformed for years. The one year when they made the NLCS, their superstar (Tatis) was suspended. They’ve had Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Josh Hader, Juan Soto, and obviously still have stars like Machado and Tatis Jr. Yet, they have zero division crowns and zero pennants in the last 15 years. Most of the production from free agent dea will come from the first half of each deal, which is why the Padres have to strike before their $275M+ deals age into years five and six. They do still have some prospects to work with (four top 100 prospects according to MLB.com), not including rookie, Jackson Merrill, who has already shown himself capable at the highest level despite turning only 21 years old in April. This team has a capable staff with playoff quality stars, a few quality relievers, and a star-studded lineup.
This lineup is tied for 6th in the MLB in wRC+. The staff is 14th in the MLB with a 4.01 ERA, sitting middle-of-the-pack in the league. The pen is 15th with a 3.82 ERA, so it’s fair to say the Padres pitching will need a new addition this deadline if they do indeed make a push for October. There is a path here for San Diego through the Wild Card as there was in 2022, and this time we don’t expect a PED suspension for Tatis Jr. The Dodgers have a 95% chance to win the West this year per Fangraphs, while the Padres have a 43% chance of grabbing a Wild Card. Now is their shot to make a run, while Tatis is still in his peak years, and Kim, Arraez, and Cease are all on this roster. This roster, particularly the offense, is loaded with talent. It’s time to put it all together. Make your move, Padres.
*Stats are as of 6/7/24