Chandler Simpson, The 90-Grade Flash
Chander Simpsons of the Tampa Bay Rays (Getty Images)
90-grade speed isn’t possible on the 80-grade scouting scale, so it is fair to say I’m being a bit hyperbolic. Rays rookie Chandler Simpson definitely has 80-grade speed though, and has made news for doing ridiculous things with his speed throughout his amateur career. One notable moment from his time at Georgia Tech was scoring from second base on a routine sacrifice fly, which never happens. The 24-year-old outfielder hit .324 in the Minors prior to his call-up, with 214 steals in 249 attempts over 250 pro games. That’s 0.856 steals for every game played and a steal attempt per game, translating to about 139 steals per 162 games with an elite 86% success rate. I expect Simpson will slow down a bit at the MLB level, particularly while he settles in. Another factor can be explained by the old talking ball adage “you can’t steal first base”. True, you can’t, but Chandler has better contact ability than most 75 to 80-grade speed guys we’ve seen recently.
Chandler Simpson Scouting Grades (MLB.com)
There are a few comparisons from the last few decades, one of the best is Billy Hamilton. Billy was a speed demon for the Reds farm system, stealing 155 bags between multiple levels in 2012. He stole 75 bags in 2013 while in AAA, and 13 in the MLB during his cup of coffee. 88 bags was actually a down year at that point for Hamilton, but he never eclipsed 60 in an MLB season. He stole 50 bags four years in a row, despite carrying a career .239 batting average. His 7.0% BB rate was fine, but he had almost no power (6 HR was his career high) and below average contact ability. Hamilton posted a 58 OAA in center field over his MLB career with an excellent 11.4 UZR/150; it wasn’t his defense that cost him a regular job and a payday. It was that old annoying adage again, you can’t steal first. A .292 career OBP simply isn’t going to cut it for a guy with little power. Chandler has even less power, with only one career HR in 250 pro games. Plus, it was an inside the park HR. Can he hit enough to stick around in the show?
Billy Hamilton Minor Leagues (Fangraphs)
One thing Chandler has shown that separates him from most speedsters is his feel for the strike zone. ZIPS currently projects his K rate at around 10%, less than half of Billy’s 21.6% K rate. He has an ability to avoid chase, hit the ball on the ground, and force the defense to make a play. There have been a few 80-grade speed guys in recent years, such as Corbin Carroll, whom’ve blossomed into stars by developing more in-game power. Simpson is self aware and knows his destiny is as a slap-hitting rabbit.
“That’s my dream,’’ Simpson, 24, tells USA TODAY Sports. “I feel like God gave me the gift to motivate and inspire other generations that come after me. I mean, I’ve heard it my whole life about the little power I have. But you don’t have to hit home runs in this home-run era. There’s other stuff that I can do well on the field that can make up for it.
In Simpon’s first 43 plate appearances at the MLB level, he’s hit .300 with a 98 wRC+ and three stolen bags. He is also considered an above-average defender in center field, so that level of production would keep him in the MLB for years to come. However, there are some indications that he may be due for regression. Simpson has yet to barrel a ball in the show, and his 63.7 MPH bat speed is toward the bottom of the league. His xBA is only .268, but he is likely to outperform that number considering he can outrun a good amount of balls put on the ground and chopped on a bounce in the infield. Simpson doesn’t chase much, and his 12.3% whiff rate is elite. He’s a less common archetype of players these days, certainly, but he seems likely to hit close to .300 based on the combination of speed, good swing decisions, and contact ability.
Chandler Simpson Metrics (Baseball Savant)
If he can’t stick around the .300 BA/.350 OBP territory, he could be destined to a bench role as a fourth outfielder. We’ve seen burners like Quintin Berry and Terrance Gore struggle to even keep a fourth outfielder job because of the lack of offense, but Chandler has a different profile. Berry struck out in 24.9% of his big league at bats, way too high for a guy without home run power. Gore hit .219 in AAA and looked overmatched against big league pitching. I’m not sure that Simpson will be a ++ outfielder, but he should be above-average because of his speed and range. A positive outcome would be Vince Coleman, who led the league in stolen bases six years in a row. He hit .264 over his career, and had little to no power. He stole 89 bags per 162 games though, which made many of his singles doubles because no one could stop him from taking second. Coleman wasn’t a great defender either, I would give the edge to Simpson. However, this is a different generation, and I’m not sure Coleman would be regarded now the same way he was thirty years ago. Front offices are impatient with guys who lack power; the sabermetrics support total bases. One of the best comparisons I have, similar to Billy, is Willy Taveras. Taveras was an above-average center fielder with no power, who hit .274./.320/.327 over his MLB career. Again though, he had more swing and miss than Simpson with similar speed. This is one of my main reasons for supporting ZIPS projections for 2025:.292/.337/.342. If Simpson can hit .292 and get to around a .350 OBP, we’ll have plenty of years to watch him at the highest level.
Vince Coleman Season by Season (bRef)