Roman_Anthony — *Photo by Winslow Townson*

Boston is firmly in the hunt of October baseball, and they have some weirdly good chances compared to many contenders. They play in the remarkably mediocre American League that’s held up by three major teams. The Rays, Yankees, and White Sox have a chokehold on every team that doesn’t play in the NL.

Because three of the six AL teams going for October are in the same division, this year’s wild card could be highly disappointing for the AL West. My too-early prediction is that the wild cards fall into the hands of New York, Boston, and Cleveland. As things stand today, the BoSox are looking to run it back for bragging rights over last year’s WC matchup with the Yankees. I think they can do it. In fact, I can see this team as an AL champion if it can push past New York early in October. Let’s just say they absolutely have the pitching to get this done. The Red Sox have another shot at one of those magic, one-in-a-million runs through the Fall Classic that seem to fall right into the laps of those most likely to throw his majesty’s tea into the harbor. The US never paid Britain back for that by the way.

The Offense

Willson_Contreras — *Photo by Winslow Townson*

You would fully expect the BoSox to be a power-heavy team given their third-place Statcast park factors at Fenway, but they don’t have a single hitter with 30 homers this season. Rather, Craig Breslow has heavily invested in building an offense that can manufacture runs rather than depend on the long ball. Gap power will play better than almost everything, especially given the Green Monster. Barring Adley Rutschman and Jarren Duran, the whole Red Sox lineup can clearly hit for average. They’ve got some speed on the basepaths in Duran, Eli White, Ceddanne, and Caleb Durbin. Anecdotally, their lineup as of today (9/13) is absolutely one that can get you:

Roman Anthony could become a 40-homer/high-average guy to anchor the future of the Red Sox lineup for years to come, Jahmai Jones is a clear example of the Sox’ constant experiment at DH, and he’s proven to have some pop in the bat with a .702 OPS on the season, though this position is usually taken by the 2.0 WAR Masataka Yoshida. Then we see Wilyer Abreu, who has some strong contact numbers and strong RF defense, Willson Contreras, who hits cleanup for a reason with his 26 homers and 77.0 mph bat speed, and then the 1-1 Adley Rutschman.

The bottom of the lineup isn’t easy outs either. Despite Trevor Story’s struggles, he’s still hitting .234, Caleb Durbin has a great eye at the plate, and Nick Sogard has switch-hit for a .266 average. The lineup is rounded out by the righty Nate Eaton, who doesn’t really have enough plate appearances, but his rolling xwOBA has settled around average.

That’s a lineup that can undeniably get you. This team can clearly muscle out a 3-run game against some great pitching with the top and middle of the order, and they have the potential to just explode when opponent pitching isn’t up to scratch. They have the pieces they need for the pitching staff to do the work in October.

And do the work they will.

The Pitching

The Red Sox have the 3rd best ERA in baseball with a 3.59 mark, just ahead of Atlanta and just behind Milwaukee. They have the best bullpen ERA in baseball with a 3.12 ERA and a top 10 rotation ERA with 3.95.

Usually when we think of teams with great pitchers, it’s isolated to the Mariners, Dodgers, Yankees, and Brewers for the most part. The Red Sox can actually go toe-to-toe with any of those teams.

I would declare the current Red Sox ace as Sonny Gray despite the electricity surrounding Payton Tolle mostly due to veteran mojo and the sub-3.00 ERA.

The 36-year-old has proven yet again that not walking people and keeping contact under control is a perfectly valid way to get 7.0 innings. He’s running a six-pitch mix anchored by a downer sinker and a particularly aggressive sweeper. Gray knows his best supporting actors for the two pitches in a great cutter and curveball. With 2,065 strikeouts in nearly 2,100 career innings, Sonny Gray is far from washed. He’ll look to fill in the ‘Max Scherzer’ role this postseason given he can’t blow people away with the 92.0 mph sinker. Simply knowing how to miss bats and read swings will go a long way in the postseason, just like having three different fastballs and two different breakers and strong command of each.

My opinion of Ranger Suarez as a postseason starter shifts constantly. On the one hand, he’s proven to have downright elite command for nine seasons now, and he’s got decent postseason experience with the Phillies and hasn’t ever really blown up. Suarez definitely has the pedigree of an absolutely unfazed pitcher. He’s also got a six-pitch mix that he commands well in each and every way. He prevents hard contact, doesn’t walk anyone, and is clearly another veteran pitcher. On the other hand, your Game 2 starter inducing 22.1% whiffs—around the bottom quartile of baseball—that’s a little scary. Suarez does not throw hard, does not strike guys out, and can’t just hit the gas to get out of an inning. If you’ve read my work before, you know I’m adamant that you don’t have to do any of that. My only concern is that Ranger being less than 100% of himself in high-stakes October baseball could collapse a game. Then again, he could go bar for bar with Yoshinobu Yamamoto in some complete-game shutout nonsense.

Then it’s the young arms.

Okay look. Payton Tolle is just a joyful dude. As I write this he just burned Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals for an immaculate inning. Dang.

Tolle_Stats — *Payton Tolle’s Statcast page*

Tolle is putting up some nuclear numbers with his 96.1 mph average fastball. He uses an occasional cutter, curveball, and changeup to support his 4-seam and sinker… but he throws a ton of 4-seams and sinkers. And for good reason. He’s at the top end of lefty velocity alongside Tarik Skubal but he’s got 98th percentile extension and a remarkably low arm slot. With 159 strikeouts in 137 innings, 23-year-old Tolle is punching tickets. He does everything right. Doesn’t give up free passes, strikes out the world, and any given fly ball is not a homer via bad barrel numbers or max EVs starting with “120 mph”. Sonny Gray has earned Game 1, but Game 2 will likely be given to the hot hand, who is currently Payton Tolle.

Jake Bennett is the Sox No. 4 and not because he’s bad. He’s 98th percentile among pitchers for walks issued, which will absolutely help against the Yankees, Rays, and whichever team emerges from the dogfight that is the National League. He’s throwing from a low lefty slot to manipulate an elite sinker and changeup. He’s getting 7.1 feet of extension, so his ‘slow’ 92.9 mph fastball average is really playing closer to 94-95 mph, which can be downright elite for tons of lefties, just ask Reid Detmers. He isn’t in the top-three conversation, but he will get postseason innings. He could even be the odd-man-out starter for something like Game 4 of the ALCS or World Series.

Patrick Sandoval is the clear No. 5 for the Red Sox, and they’ll avoid starting him in October. However, his 51o arm slot and aggressive fastball shape from the left side is reminiscent of the opposing Alex Vesia. Sandoval could do quality work out of the bullpen by spamming the fastball/slider/changeup mix. He can be an effective reliever, in theory. He’s unlikely to give up a homer to a power-heavy lineup given his above average barrel and hard-hit stats.

And then there’s the bullpen.

The leverage portion of the Sox ‘pen makes the league-best ERA pretty clear. It starts with lefty Erik Miller, who can be trusted to get the likes of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani out. The only concern in the profile are the poor walks, but he’s flinging 97 mph sinkers, what more can we ask for? Boston will likely try to give him a clean inning without runners on, and the former Stanford arm can give them one. He has seventy strikeouts in just 47 innings with a 2.11 ERA this season.

And Garrett Whitlock is arguably just as elite with his 1.84 ERA in 49 innings. He’s tossing one of those Josh Hader-unicorn sinkers that behave as a 4-seam functionally. Those kinds of two-seams usually work well, and they have for Whitlock and his 0.82 WHIP.

And then we get even more insane. Tyron Guerrero is expected to be activated soon, and he’s playing the same game as Whitlock with his sinker… just at a 100.2 mph average. Despite numbers that aren’t as pretty as Miller or Whitlock, Guerrero’s velocity is trustworthy enough to quiet the most dangerous parts of a postseason lineup with that dang October plate discipline.

Tyson_Guerrero — *Photo by Brian Fluharty*

And then there’s the joker card.

The Red Sox ace of 2025 has been largely sidelined due to a lat strain and shoulder complications. The 27-year-old LHP Garrett Crochet and 2025 Boston ace looks to be on track for an October return. He’s unlikely to stretch into full starting in October, but he’s optimistic to return as a short-term leverage reliever to run up the velocity and spin enough sweepers to make New York hitters dizzy. Should we face a short October start in Boston, Crochet can stretch thing into Guerrero, Whitlock, and Miller. Oh yeah and that one guy.

Of course, we have to mention him.

Aroldis Chapman is the Red Sox closer. He’s pitched on the biggest stage in the world in the most crucial games for both the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs. Entering the golden years of his career, Aroldis has discovered another gear of command, pitchability, and closer moxie to get the most important outs on Earth. What more can anyone say about Chapman? He’s been a top 3 closer in baseball for the last 15 years. He holds the velocity record of 105.8 mph, and has four hundred career saves.

Fully capable of ending the postseason himself, Chapman offers a fitting way to “close” my article. See what I did there? The Red Sox offense is certainly clean enough to get it done in October, but I don’t trust any team to overpower this pitching staff in a game closer than three runs. Chapman, Tolle, Crochet—the names just keep coming. The Red Sox are just that good.

About the Author:

This article was produced by Ransom Fassett for Painting Corners, you can find more of his work here.

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