What it Takes to Win

John Smoltz has a simple formula to winning it all in October: three hot bats, three hot starters, and three hot relievers. Spoiler, both teams have them all.

In the hitting sense, Tampa Bay has a certain Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Chandler Simpson.

The Brew Crew has Jake Bauers, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio.

The pitching is no different. Milwaukee sports the all-but-guaranteed NL Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, and arguably the deepest bullpen in baseball.

Previewing Brewers vs. Rays

The Rays have Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, Nick Martinez, and the best closer in the AL via Bryan Baker.

On the surface, this postseason is evenly matched given the profiles of these teams. Their star power is dependent on young sparkplugs like Caminero and Chourio, but the small-ball strategy is clear one through nine on both teams.

This isn’t like the Braves vs. Dodgers, where one team absolutely must out-homer the other to win. It’s not like Guards vs. White Sox either, where the pitching just cannot bleed. Neither team will die by a quiet offense or a shaky pitching staff. Chandler Simpson will steal enough bags, Aranda will hit enough RBIs, and the defense will keep them in it. A bad day from Nick Martinez is not the end of the world.

All the same, even if Jake Bauers and Contreras can’t get to the Rays’ pitching, the Miz, Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, and Abner Uribe can keep a game within a run.

Both teams run too deep to lose quietly; each has what it takes to win. This October will not end by Caminero having a home run derby. All the same, it will not end by Jacob Misiorowski striking out the world.

But who has the edge in the rotation?

As I write this section, I can’t help but mention how obvious the choice seems. The Brewers have Misiorowski after all. But this is the beauty of baseball—Misiorowski can’t pitch all 7 games. Who else will Milwaukee start? There’s changeup-spamming rookie Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, and few others you’d trust with a ring on the line. All are very good pitchers, but October plate discipline can punish a rookie for being unable to zone his changeup. He managed to quell the Dodgers of course, but the margin for error is low for Henderson when your only other trustworthy pitch is a fastball with mediocre velocity. For Robert Gasser, you worry about the lack of swing-and-miss. He prevents hard contact for certain (93rd percentile in the regular season), but isn’t getting the grounders needed to support that profile. Yes, the Brewers have Misiorowski, but remove Game 1 and Milwaukee is fighting an uphill battle

The Rays have three arms you’d be comfortable with calling an ace. Drew Rasmussen does everything you could ask for. Ground balls, high velocity, strikeouts, I could go on:

Rasmussen_Stats — *Graphics via BaseballSavant*

Freddy Peralta has had an up-and-down year after being traded approximately twelve times, but has a sub-2.00 ERA in all of his postseason starts. His heater has ramped up from a season average of 94.3 mph to an average 96.9 with the season on the line. With the season on the line, Peralta will go up to 99 to get the outs he wants.

Nick Martinez doesn’t have the postseason profile Rasmussen and Peralta does, but he offers security the Brewers don’t have with their rookie-laden pitching staff. Nine season veteran that he is, Martinez was in the 100th percentile in walks during the regular season. He issued a free pass to just 3.6% of all batters. He’ll mix in sinkers, changeups, cutters, and almost everything else to get the outs he needs. Probably not your first choice as an October starter, but definitely won’t have Kevin Cash constantly freaking out in the dugout.

I’d say the Rays have the starting advantage.

And the bullpen?

Almost the same situation as the one above with Milwaukee. I want to say that the Rays have the Crew here as well, given the AL save leader in Bryan Baker. The issue again is depth. What else do the Rays have?

Kevin Kelly is a serious option, he’s a sidearming right-hander who gives up zero walks and gets grounders better than almost every other pitcher in baseball:

Kelly_Stats — *Graphics via BaseballSavant*

There’s unqualified lefty Cam Booser, who I can definitely see getting some outs, and righty Tyler Wells who posted a 2.38 ERA this season. The Rays absolutely have the bullpen arms to get the top of the order out. Unfortunately, the Brewers are just better.

Aaron Ashby has been their de facto bulk reliever all season, and will likely start the inevitable bullpen game:

Ashby_Stats — *Graphics via BaseballSavant*

He’s one of the hardest throwing lefties in baseball, was the first pitcher to 10 wins this season, and has an alliterative name. Ashby will get you with more than the elite sinker, he also spins two of the most aggressive breakers in the majors in both the curveball and slider.

Then there’s Abner Uribe.

He’s averaging 98.8 mph on his sinker, seventh fastest in baseball. Think Mason Miller, but he’s worn the epic uniform above and has now transcended foolish concepts like throwing less than 97. Jokes aside, he’s enjoying a 1.97 ERA on the season and top-tier barrel prevention with both the sinker and slider.

It gets worse. The closer is a certain Trevor Megill. With 30 saves on the year, he’s the last of a dying breed with his fastball/curveball one-two punch.

The Rays have a great bullpen, it’s just harder to be greater than the three-headed monster that is Pat Murphy’s bullpen. While the rotations and bullpens are askew, the Brewers have the option to pull a starter quickly, Jacob Misiorowski only went 4 innings against the San Diego Padres during the NLDS, but it didn’t matter because they went to Antonio Senzatela, Ashby, Uribe, DL Hall, and Trevor Megill. The Padres did not score after the Miz exited. Woof.

That doesn’t mean the Brewers have the pitching advantage with their options in the bullpen—the Rays might not even need to go to the bullpen for critical outs early.

In Game 1 of the ALDS, Drew Rasmussen threw 8.0 innings and fanned 10 to save the bullpen. They only needed Bryan Baker to slam the door and beat the Bombers 1-0.

And the Offense?

Both of these teams have had their hero moments. Whether it’s Caminero finally beating the high fastball or the Brewers outscoring the gold-plated Dodgers by a mile.

In the regular season, the Brewers were the best offense in baseball by batting average and stolen bases, followed narrowly by… the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both of these teams do an excellent job at laying off bad offerings, destroying mistakes, and fouling off good pitches. The Brewers did get on base more in the regular season by a strong mark, but on the surface, neither team is clearly better.

Postseason stats tell a different story. The Brewers are the only team with an OPS in the .700s this October. The Rays were at .649. The Brewers hit for more bases and power while taking more walks and having those endless foul ball wars. Remember Jake Bauers taking a walk after a twelve-pitch battle with Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

A grain of salt is needed here. The Brewers’ stats are heavily padded by the less than ideal pitching from the Padres series. Sample sizes are so small in October that it’s hard to tell if a team is hotter with the bats than another. The Rays have grinded through elite Guardians and Yankees Pitching, while the Brewers faced the highly questionable Padres pitching staff.

Anecdotally, the Brewers got to Mason Miller, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, and Tanner Scott.

The Rays have gotten to some excellent names as well—Gerrit Cole, Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Parker Messick, and more.

I can’t say either of these teams will be easily quelled offensively—both have proven to destroy even the league’s best pitching.

The Turning Points?

Watch for how the Brewers are forced to manage their starting rotation. If something goes less than perfect with Misiorowski, Henderson, or Gasser, I can quickly see this series slipping out of reach.

I’d also look for how comfortable Rays pitching is. If Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta are allowed to settle, the Brewers offense could go ice cold. But if the Brewers batting order can grind through Tampa’s pitching to get to the bullpen, this series can look like the Dodgers’ one did. Also, seeing how effective (and often) the Three-Headed Monster(TM) can sit down the likes of Caminero and Simpson could tell the whole story.

Regardless, this will be an October Classic you remember. Neither of these teams have ever won a World Series, and the story of how they do it could be the start of us complaining about how Milwaukee collapses every October or how the Rays are consistently irritating enough to never quite take it all the way as the cool weather sets in.

Best of luck!

About the Author:

This preview was produced by Ransom Fassett for Painting Corners, you can find more of his work here.

World Series Preview: Brewers VS. Rays