Five X Factors for the World Series

2025 World Series Preview (MLB.com)

1.Can the Blue Jays challenge the Dodgers’ starting rotation? 

Blake Snell went eight innings against Milwaukee, and Yamamoto threw a complete game in game two. Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani also dominated the Brewers lineup to complete the sweep. As we covered on PC Baseball pod, the Brewers hit .113 in the NLCS, and no one has really challenged the Dodgers throughout the postseason. The Phillies were good enough to be competitive, but it was clear they needed a few breaks to advance. The Dodgers’ starting rotation is the biggest advantage right now, with a 1.40 ERA, a 33.5% K rate, and a 60.4% groundball rate. Toronto has a 143 wRC+ this October, easily the best in the bracket, and 30 points better than the Dodgers. Bo Bichette is back, Springer is in the lineup again, and Vladito has been unstoppable. This is the right lineup to challenge this group of arms, but I have a feeling Snell and company will win the war over a best of seven. 

NL SP Team ERA Rankings Postseason (Fangraphs)

2. Can Andy Pages stabilize the bottom of the LA lineup?

Pages is a solid nine-hitter in the league if he’s hitting .248 with some pop as he did throughout the regular season. Unfortunately for Dave Roberts, he’s hitting .086/.135/.114 this postseason and preventing the lineup from turning over because of his immense struggles. If he can bounce back, it will be tough to limit the Dodgers to less than four or five runs a game considering the top of this lineup.

3. Which version of Roki Sasaki will the Jays see? 

Sasaki was the kid wonder that every team in the league was seemingly courting last winter, but the regular season was mostly a lost cause for him. His fastball was getting rocked by MLB hitters, and he’s battled some shoulder issues as well. Fast forward to October, and he’s the de facto closer for the best team in baseball. He’s reinvented himself, and his stuff looks elite again. Can he keep it up, or will he lose command and blow a critical lead against the best offense in the American League?

Roki Sasaki Postseason Numbers (Fangraphs)

4. Can the bottom of Toronto’s order keep it up?

As stated in episode four, the bottom-of-the-order hitters (spots 7-9) for the Toronto Blue Jays produced a slash line of .284/.338/.500 through 83 plate appearances against Seattle. If IKF and the gang continue to turn the lineup over, the Dodgers will be pushed in this series. If 7-9 guys hit like the Mariners’ 7-9 did in the ALCS (hit .113 with a .365 OPS), Dodgers are sweeping or winning in five. I believe it will be somewhere in the middle, the bottom of the order won’t make or break them. 

5. Will the Toronto bullpen hold up?

 While the Jays have had the best offense this month, they’ve also had the weakest bullpen both by expectation and results. The pen was considered the weakness for both of these clubs, but the Dodgers pen has been bailed out by two factors, starting pitcher dominance and the emergence of Roki. John Schneider’s bullpen has a 5.52 ERA in 45.2 innings, while Dave Roberts’ pen has a 4.88 in much more palatable 27.2 innings. This group has been overworked, and John seems to really only trust Louis Varland and Jeff Hoffman lately. Both guys threw back-to-back games in 6 and 7 of the ALDS, but I’m not sure Schneider can expect the same workload for the World Series. I am hypothesizing the Jays’ bullpen as the X factor that prevents them from getting this series to game seven.

Blue Jays Postseason Bullpen Stats (Fangraphs)