2025 MLB Postseason: Aidan’s Bracket
Aidan’s 2025 MLB Postseason Bracket
The 2025 MLB postseason hasn’t even started, but we’ve already had a few historic collapses, namely from the Mets and the Tigers. The difference there is, the Tigers found a way to get a Wild Card, while the Mets are on their way to Cancún. I am expecting plenty of chaos this season, similar to two years ago when the Rangers and the Snakes met in the World Series as two Cinderella wild cards.
Wild Card Round
Red Sox/Yankees
The winner of the Red Sox-Yankees series will play Toronto in the ALDS. Boston’s catchers are collectively hitting .202/.252/.365 in the 2nd half. Ceddanne Rafaela only hit .218/.268/.319 after the break, causing concern for the bottom of their order. Roman Anthony has emerged as a star and on-base machine, but he’s been the only elite hitter in this line over the last few months. Boston will need Jarren, Bregman, and Story to come up big, and I believe they will. Crochet is the 2nd best starter in the American League, and neither Rodón or Fried can match him. Fortunately for Aaron Boone, there is a huge drop off after Crochet in the rotation. Lucas Giolito isn’t on the roster for this round, so Boston is likely looking at either an inexperienced starter or a bullpen game in a decisive game three. Alex Cora, Red Sox manager, has a stable full of reliable relievers, and he’ll be dependent on them for much of this series. His lineup struggles against left handed pitching and this 1-2 southpaw punch from the Yankees presents serious problems for this lineup. Ultimately, I think this struggling Yankees bullpen will blow one too many games. Red Sox in 3
Tigers/Guardians
The Guardians have an epic comeback, likely manager of the year, and all of the momentum. The Tigers blew their 15.5 game division lead, making history in a bad way. They still have the best pitcher in the American League for game one though, in Tarik Skubal. I am expecting Detroit to take the first one on the road, pushing the Guardians into a tough position. Cleveland has found a way to get into the dance, but they had a -6 run differential in the regular season. Only superstar José Ramírez and young first baseman Kyle Manzardo were above average hitters in the second half, while Steven Kwan has struggled relative to his standard. Detroit’s lineup is deeper, with Gleyber, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson hitting in front of their aircraft carrier, Riley Greene. Despite closer Emmanuel Clase’s administrative leave, Stephen Vogt’s pen ranked best in the AL with a 3.03 2nd H ERA. This series should be electric, I expect Detroit’s lineup advantage to put them over the top. Tigers in 3
Detroit Tigers Lineup 2025 MLB (Fangraphs)
Padres/Cubs
The Padres will go with Pivetta in game one, and Dylan Cease in game two. Cease has a bigger name, but he’s got a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. His peripherals are much better though, indicating he’s the same guy that finished 4th in the 2024 NL Cy Young. The Cubs will go with Matt Boyd in game one and likely fellow lefty Shota Imanaga in game two depending on the conditions at Wrigley. The Padres only have a 96 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but the top of their lineup is formidable. The Padres need Fernando Tatis Jr. the MVP candidate version, not the solid All Star one. Manny Machado has carried this club at times this year, and Jackson Merrill’s sophomore slump hasn’t helped. The Cubbies’ lineup is deep, with Pete Crow-Armstrong hitting 7th right now. This group started out red hot, but they were barely above average after the summer break, thanks in no small part to Pete’s drop off. The pen overperformed early in the year, and are unlikely to match the best group of relievers in the game. When Mason Miller isn’t even the closer, you know you’re going to have a tough time coming back. I have the Padres shocking everyone with a sweep. Padres in 2
Reds/Dodgers
The Dodgers have the dominant starting rotation, and the 1-2-3 HOF players in the top of their lineup. Even still, this club does have holes, namely the bullpen. Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen have been awful these last few months, while Kirby Yates and Ben Casparius also have ERA over 5.00 since the break. Hunter Greene vs. Blake Snell could go either way, the Reds’ ace is known for an ability to pitch late into games. Game two will feature Andrew Abbott for Cinci and Yamamoto for the Dodgers, two more high end starters who can beat any lineup on a good day. Shohei Ohtani will be a big pitching advantage for LAD if the series gets to the rubber match. This Reds lineup is the weakest offense in this bracket, there is no doubt Tito Francona will need some special moments throughout his lineup. I think he will, and I suspect this will be the most wild series of the four in the round. Reds in 3
Divisional Round
Blue Jays/ Red Sox
We have less information for these hypothetical series of course, but we can still compare the rosters despite the lack of information on pitching plans. The Jays have a high powered offense, one that has an MLB best 118 wRC+ since June 1st. Their last game of the year showed their depth, their catcher Alejandro Kirk hit a grand slam and a two run homer to blow the Rays out. He isn’t anywhere near their best hitter, but he’s still got a 111 OPS+ this season. Bo Bichette and his knee sprain provide some uncertainty, the Red Sox will have a more even matchup if he can’t play. The Red Sox have a slight starting pitching advantage and a massive bullpen one. The Jays have Jeff Hoffman as their closer, despite his 4.37 ERA. I expect Toronto to have trouble closing games out, but I think the offense will be too much for the Boston pitching staff. Jays in 4
Tigers/ Mariners
As discussed above, the Tigers have a back-to-back Cy Young award winner and a deep lineup. The Mariners don’t have anyone with a Cy, but they have one of the better 1-2-3 starter combos in the postseason and a top five offense in the MLB. Their top 10 bullpen is their weakest unit, but my concern is regarding the boom or bust nature of the lineup. When Big Dumper and Geno Suárez are hitting homers, all is well. When the lineup is striking out in double digits and multiple innings pass without baserunners, not so much. The juice of the lineup will get them past Detroit though, Seattle will really be in business if they can win game one against Tarik. Mariners in 3
MLB Top Offenses 2025 (Fangraphs)
Brewers/Padres
The Brewers were the best team in baseball for the majority of the season, always playing hard and constantly finding more arms despite injuries. Recent acquisition and former Yankee Caleb Durbin has been a surprise performer this year, posting a .721 OPS and stabilizing the hot corner. Christian Yelich had a great year, and Andrew Vaughn hit .308 in Milwaukee after being traded by the White Sox for Aaron Civale. Freddy Peralta is the ace, but Quinn Priester broke out this year after bouncing around the league. This team doesn’t really have any weaknesses, they play excellent defense and put the ball in play. The Brew Crew won’t beat themselves, and I don’t see the Padres being able to deploy their top bullpen arms with leads for the majority of the series. Brewers in 4
Top Bullpens 2nd Half MLB 2025
Reds/Phillies
The Phillies have one of the dominant offenses in the National League, and they also have the NL Cy Young runner up in Cristopher Sánchez. Sánchez put up a 2.50 ERA in 32 starts, and will be very tough to beat. The Reds have Greene, Abbott, and Lodolo though, while Zack Wheeler is out for the year. The Reds probably won’t be able to score a ton of runs against Cristopher and Ranger Suárez, their starting pitching and bullpen will need to shine. The Phillies don’t have the bullpen of the Padres or the Guardians, so there will be opportunities to get back in the game if Philly jumps on a starter. Chaos abound, Reds in 5
Championship Round
Blue Jays/ Mariners
The Blue Jays have a dominant offense, arguably better than the Mariners. It’s not much of an edge if they do have one though, and I think Seattle can outpitch Toronto with the likes of Gilbert, Woo, and Kirby. Toronto needs Bo for a full lineup in this series. Without him, the lineup shortens, even if the infield defense does improve a bit. The Jays bullpen is also sketchy and inconsistent, while the Mariners have Andrés Muñoz, Speier, and Brash. I just don’t see them beating a complete roster like the one Jerry and his team built over the years. Mariners in 6
Brewers/ Reds
The Reds have gone on a magical run in my hypothetical scenario here, but it ends today. Their offense will finally dry up, and the Brewers will steal, first to third, and double them up to death. Cinci needs their pitching to be pristine to win games, and the Brewers don’t. Milwaukee also has both a superior infield and outfield defense, with more speed sans Elly De La Cruz. Brewers in 5
World Series
Mariners/Brewers
Lastly, the World Series itself. This will be an electric matchup between two small- to mid-market teams with several make or break roster decisions and player development that broke the right way. The breakouts from both Priester and Chad Patrick has lengthened the Brewers’ top end starting pitching, while Cal Raleigh’s MVP quality season has protected the other hitters in their lineup and made the Mariners one of the most dangerous offenses to face in the league. Both teams play to their strengths in this series. The Brewers don’t beat themselves, the Mariners hit one too many clutch homers to squeak by. Mariners in 7
