Why Cal Raleigh is the AL MVP
Cal Raleigh (Left) of the Seattle Mariners and Aaron Judge (Right) of the New York Yankees
Currently at Draft Kings, the AL MVP race is close with Aaron Judge listed as a -150 favorite. Cal Raleigh is a +110 underdog, and the Mariners are hosting the worst pitching staff in baseball this week, the Colorado Rockies. Judge will have plenty of chances too, with the Yankees finishing the season facing the White Sox and Orioles. Most pundits are pushing for another Judge MVP, as are most fans. He’s leading the league in almost every important hitting category, so it’s easy to see why. Most guys never sniff a .326/.451/.672 line in a 100 at bat sample, forget over 146 games. Aaron is already a 2X MVP, and the best hitter in baseball, but he shouldn’t win the AL MVP this year. It should be the Big Dumper, and I'll give you four compelling reasons.
4) Team Narrative and Playoff Context
In 49 seasons, the Seattle Mariners have won the division three times; 1995, 1997, and 2001. It’s been 24 seasons since their last division crown, and they just swept the Astros for a three game division lead. Per Fangraphs, Seattle has a 98.4% chance of holding onto the AL West crown for the first time since the Nintendo GameCube was released. There is no doubt about it, the Mariners would not be in the playoffs without Cal. There is simply no catcher in the league even remotely close to his value this year, and his value above replacement on this Mariners team is immense. A combination of Mitch Garver and Harry Ford would have left a massive Cal-sized hole in the lineup, with a substantial dropoff defensively as well.
The Yankees probably wouldn’t be in the playoffs without Aaron Judge either, but the Yankees lineup can and has been powered by other guys in the lineup when Judge has been out. This Mariners lineup is devastatingly dependent on Raleigh, and the lineup’s microwave style is largely because of Raleigh’s style as a hitter. Seattle can put up a crooked number in just a few blinks, and more than likely Dumper is part of the rally.
3) Durability and Consistency
Raleigh has caught over 1000 innings in three consecutive seasons, and is the only catcher in the American League this season with 100 innings behind the dish. For context, Dillon Dingler of the Tigers is second with 969, and he has 13 homers to Cal’s 58. Dan Wilson and the Mariners’ staff knows they can rely on their star backstop day in and day out, they actively have to persuade him to DH to stay fresh throughout the season. Raleigh is constantly taking four seamers to the shoulder or taking a breaking ball off his shin, but it doesn’t stop him from showing up for his guys. Partially due to his reliability, the switch hitter has built tight relationships with most of his staff, perhaps most notably his buddy Logan Gilbert. Managing one of the best starting rotations in the MLB, working with the bullpen, elite pitch framing, and holding base runners accountable on a daily basis are only a few of Big Dumper’s daily responsibilities. When you contrast that with standing in the right field, it’s just not close from a physical impact, commitment, and the toughness required for the job.
AL 2025 Innings Caught Leaders (Fangraphs)
2) Defensive Comparison
Big Dumper won the Platinum Glove last season in the American League, as the best defender of all 15 AL Teams. Cal is an excellent framer, which of course pitchers appreciate. His blocking metrics have slipped a bit this season, but he’s still got a +7 FRV (Fielding Run Value) per Fangraphs, including a +6 in pitch framing. He’s one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, and that has tremendous value that is hard to replace. That’s why we’ve seen guys like Martín Maldonado and Austin Hedges with jobs every year despite hitting under .200 consistently.
Aaron Judge, on the other hand, has always been a good athlete and above average glove in right field. He even handled himself in center field for awhile, despite his size, but his defense has taken a major step back with his recent flexor strain on his throwing arm. He’s had to DH more, and opposing runners know they can grab an extra base because Judge simply can’t make the throw. Cal Raleigh has caught 118 games, while the Yankee captain has played only 89 games in the outfield.
1) Historic Impact, and Performance Relative to Peers
Judge has plenty of records himself, most notably the AL single season HR record. The magic number of 62 isn’t out of grasp for Cal to tie, but he would need four homers in six games. If he hits 60, the argument for MVP should be over in my opinion. He’s already obliterated the single season HR record for a catcher, previously 48 set by Salvador Perez in 2021. He also broke Mickey Mantle’s 64 year old record for HR’s in a season by a switch hitter, when he hit HR #55. He then proceeded to set the Mariners franchise record, when he hit #57, Griffey Jr. hit 56 in 1997 and 1998. Javy López hit 42 bombs as a catcher back in 2003, so many referenced that as the number for Dumper to hit. Well he’s now got 47 as a catcher, and 11 as a DH. What other records does he have to hit to earn this MVP? Raleigh has a 170 wRC+ as a catcher, the AL runner up to him is Shea Langeliers at 121 (min 250 PA). For me, he’s already earned the hardware, but 60 bombs as an elite defensive catcher would be simply too much to ignore. If he does finish 2nd, it’s still a historic season and he’d be losing to the best hitter in baseball.
MLB Switch Hitter Single Season HR Record (Stat Muse)