Can the Dodgers Turn Things Around?

Dave Roberts, Manager of the Dodgers (MLB.com)

The Dodgers have one of the most talented teams that we’ve seen in recent MLB history. The first three hitters in their lineup are all surefire Hall of Famers. On the pitching side, they have legendary Clayton Kershaw, 2x Cy Young Blake Snell, the sensational Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and some of the nastiest stuff in the league from Tyler Glasnow. They have Shohei pitching as well of course, and their bullpen has brand-name relievers like Blake Treinen, Tanner Scott, and Kirby Yates. At the All Star Break, the Dodgers had the best record in the National League as expected, and had a 91.6% chance of winning the NL West. As of this morning, their chances have dropped to 81.3% and their lead has shrunk down to 1.5 games over the Padres. The reigning World Series champs have lost five in a row and are 20-25 in the 2nd half. What has gone wrong and can they turn things around in time for October?

2025 NL West Standings as of All Star Break July 12 (Fangraphs)

The Bullpen

Kirby Yates has a 4.71 ERA this year with 1.73 HR/9, after posting a 1.17 ERA in 2024. He’s given up 6 HR when throwing his four-seam in only 75 at bats, while he’s given up 10 doubles when throwing his splitter. Treinen also has a homer problem, and he’s also got a 12.1% BB rate this year. Evan Phillips went under the knife in June, and Brock Stewart has elbow inflammation. Closer and recent signing Tanner Scott has a 8.44 ERA in the 2nd Half, his average exit velocity in the 9th percentile. In the first two months of the year, rookie reliever Ben Casparius was a godsend for them, with a 2.72 ERA and .206 BAA. He has a 6.31 ERA since June 1st, and fell down the leverage ladder as fast as he climbed it. Due to both ineffectiveness and injuries, Dave Roberts has had to rely on two unheralded lefties, rookie Jack Dreyer and journeyman Anthony Banda. Dreyer is a dominant slider/four-seam guy, and his .199 xBA is demonstrative of his performance being legit. His 4.3% barrel rate is in the 95% percentile, the Dodgers will continue to rely on him in the Postseason. Dreyer can’t do it all though, the trio of All Stars, Treinen, Scott, and Yates,simply have to be better if the Dodgers hope to have a shot as back-to-back Champs. Another dominant lefty, Alex Vesia, is rehabbing his oblique in AAA, while Michael Kopech is finally back from his knee injury. Both should provide further reinforcements for the stretch.

Mookie Betts 

Mookie lost 18 pounds from a stomach illness early in the season, and I am convinced that has played a part in his struggles this season. Asking a 32-year-old (33 in October) right fielder to play shortstop is a tall ask, and frankly, Betts could have been moved to second base or right field by now. That said, he has a +3 OAA, so he’s able to handle himself there because he's an incredible athlete with natural ability and an unusual work ethic. Betts is having the worst offensive season of his career, hitting .253 with a .713 OPS. Things have picked up lately though, he has a .784 OPS since August 1st with an elite 6.2 K%. If Betts is an .800 OPS hitter in October, it changes the dynamic of the lineup and forces guys to pitch to Shohei and Freddie.

 Mookie Betts Dodgers Stats Since August 1st (Fangraphs)

Starting Pitching Health

There were some Dodgers fans who felt bringing back Clayton was unnecessary, they had plenty of pitching. Kershaw is 37 and his four seam averages under 90 MPH. He has ended up being a savior for this Dodgers team, staying healthy and putting up a 3.27 ERA over 19 starts to date this season. He has been a #2 starter behind Yamamoto, on a team that wasn’t sure how they would get him consistent starts. Snell and Glasnow got hurt, while Shohei has only been able to go five innings once so far this year in his comeback from the UCL injury. Of course, most fans were expecting phenom Roki Sasaki to be a mainstay in the rotation, but it has not worked out that way. He had an abysmal 1.3% K-BB% and 6.36 xERA prior to going down with shoulder issues. In four AAA starts, he has a 7.07 ERA while rehabbing. Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are still recovering from Tommy John, while Gavin Stone and Tony Gonsolin also had to have surgeries performed this season. Despite all of these injuries, Andrew Friedman felt comfortable trading sinker-baller Dustin May to the Red Sox at the trade deadline. At this point, Glasnow, Snell, and Ohtani are all healthy. If the rotation stays as it is below, this is the best starting rotation in the MLB and the postseason bracket. Kershaw likely won’t even get October starts, with the top four guys all available.

Dodgers Starting Rotation Depth Chart (Fangraphs)

Bottom of the Lineup + Wrap

Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández are #4 and #5 in the lineup, respectively, while Andy Pages has kept the bottom of the lineup dangerous from the #7 spot. Pages has a 111 wRC+ this season, while providing excellent defense in center field. Max Muncy has battled a few injuries this year, and the lineup loses length without him. Thankfully, he’ll be activated tomorrow for the Rockies game. Hyeseong Kim started out red hot in his MLB debut, but has cooled down significantly and has little to no power. Miggy Rojas has had a good year, hitting .262 and providing stability in the middle infield. The primary issue here is Michael Conforto, he’s been one of the worst players in the National League this year. He’s hitting .167/.243/.273, so things aren’t getting any better. The Dodgers should cut bait, and give those at bats to guys like Alex Call. Unfortunately, they don’t have a left-handed outfielder on the bench right now, so it appears they are sticking with Conforto for the stretch. Even if they do stick with the left fielder and he doesn’t perform, this is the best lineup in the National League. If they were able to replace him with league average production, it would make a huge difference in putting pressure on clubs in late innings with the top of the lineup hitting. All in all, the depth of this lineup in conjunction with the starting pitching Dave Roberts has at his disposal, this Dodgers team should probably be the favorite to win it all again. The biggest concern here is the bullpen. If they pitch in October with the inconsistency they have in the regular season, don’t be surprised if the Dodgers blow a series.