NPB Stock Watch: Munetaka Murakami
Photo Credit: Munetaka Murakami #55 of Team Japan hits a solo home run in the second inning against Team USA during the World Baseball Classic Championship at loanDepot park on March 21, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Back in June, the President and owner of the Swallows, Tetsuya Hayashida, echoed a sentiment to support Munetaka Murakami and his desire to be posted, "If he wishes for it, we are willing to submit a posting system application for him," Hayashida said. "Our hope is for him to succeed. He supported the team so much in such a short period and made a big contribution. He’s a player we care a lot about.” At 22 years old, Murakami broke legendary Sadaharu Oh’s decades-old single season HR record by a Japanese-born player in the NPB, hitting HR #56 on October 3rd, 2022. Murakami was of major international interest at this point, and for good reason. His prodigious power made him a helium player overnight for fans and scouts alike scouring the globe for a player that can give them hope, as Shohei Ohtani provided for the Angels. Unfortunately for Munetaka, he failed to record an OPS over .900 in both 2023 and 2024, after hitting .318 and putting up an insane 1.168 OPS in 2022. For context, the average OPS in the Japanese Central League last season was .645, so his .851 OPS was still over two hundred points above the mean. For this superstar’s standards though, it was a down year. To make matters worse, he had to get arthroscopic cleaning surgery on his right elbow last December and then suffered setbacks and an oblique injury as he ramped up for the 2025 season. Now that he’s back, Murakami has been hitting the ball harder than anyone in the NPB and leads the Swallows in homers this season despite only having played in 28 games this season. He needed to show that tape measure power, as well as his health, before being posted this winter.
Munetaka Murakami NPB Ranks as of August 18th (Yakyu Cosmopolitan Tweet)
He’ll be 26 in February, which is four or five years younger than the typical top free agent. His youth will help to draw interest, though there are questions if he can play third base at the MLB level. Similar to his fellow countrymen Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Ichiro Suzuki, the Swallows slugger will not be a typical rookie. He’s hit 234 homers in the NPB, broken records, and owns back-to-back MVP awards. His profile draws comparisons to an All Star in this upcoming MLB free agent class, Kyle Schwarber, as a power first bat with a good eye, albeit plenty of swing and miss. Murakami hitting like Schwarber or Raffy Devers would be an ideal scenario, especially if it turns out he can indeed play the hot corner. There is also a good possibility that he doesn’t hit for enough contact to perform like these guys. His K rate in the NPB has been around 30% over the last few seasons, and the average fastball in the league is around 91 MPH, compared to the 94 MPH average in the show. His in-zone contact rate has also suffered, from 79% in 2022 to 74% in 2023-2024. There is valid concern that the K rate will go up, and the highest K rate among qualified players is Oneil Cruz at 31.9%. Mura-kami-sama has little margin for error in this sense, if he does strikeout in the 35% to 40% range, he will struggle to hit .200 at the MLB level. Most scouts tend to think he will not be able to play third everyday at the highest level, so let’s assume Murakami will play first and eventually move to DH. That will limit the list of teams willing to bid nine figures for him. Since he is only 26 years old for opening day 2026, clubs will likely be buying his prime years, as opposed to say 32-year-old Alex Bregman. Kyle Tucker will likely be the #1 contract on the list, since he has an excellent track record as an overall ball player and his free agent age is 28. A DH like Schwarber competing with Shohei for the NL HR title could get a higher AAV than Murakami, but he is 33 years old. Three years from now, will the 36-year-old version of the Phillies All Star be better than 29-year-old Murakami? These are the kinds of questions clubs will try to answer this winter once the postseason wraps up.
Top K% Leaders MLB(Fangraphs)
Fans may initially think the Giants are a natural fit with Devers playing some first base and likely DH’ing a few days a week, but top prospect and 20-year-old phenom Bryce Eldridge is at most a year away from making an impact on the MLB roster. If they did manage to sign Murakami, Bob Melvin would have nowhere to put Eldridge when he inevitably gets called up. In Atlanta, Marcell Ozuna is an upcoming free agent and they should have an open spot in the lineup. However, the Braves don’t have a history of paying premium dollars for high end Japanese talent, and I don’t expect Alex Anthopoulos to start this year. There is and will be heavy speculation of the Dodgers and Yankees being involved, particularly for the Yankees with Goldschmidt set to walk at the end of the year. The Dodgers have both Max Muncy (another player comp) and Freddie Freeman, so there isn’t really anywhere to put Murakami with the DH spot occupied by Ohtani. My darkhorse clubs for this upcoming bid are the Nationals and the Angels. The Nationals have a talented core and are an ascending club, in the country’s capitol. They also don’t have a permanent solution at first base, while CJ Abrams and James Wood would provide protection for Munetaka in the lineup. If Murakami insists on playing third base, the Angels are one of the likeliest teams to accommodate the player in that situation. Perry Minasian would love to continue the Angels tradition from when they shocked the world and signed Shohei. Mike Trout could maintain the DH slot and Nolan could stay at first.
Angels Current Infield Depth MLB (Fangraphs)
Finally to estimate the contract, I typically like to compare historical deals. With Murakami’s youth and unique profile, it’s difficult to find many useful comparisons. If he can find a team willing to see him as a third baseman the way that the Red Sox bought Devers (briefly anyway), I could see him getting a deal exceeding Matt Olson’s $168M deal. That deal was three and half years ago, and the Swallow 3B is a couple years younger, but Olson was already cemented as one of the best first basemen and hitters in the league at the time of the extension.Of course, these projections assume that Murakami continues his elite production in 2025. Though they are very different players, Jung Hoo Lee was only a year younger than him when he came over to the MLB and played in the inferior KBO. Lee was able to get six years, $113M from the Giants, which seems like a reasonable price tag for the Japanese HR king if they believe he can provide a middle-of-the-order bat. He really needed to show flashes of his 2022 self, and he’s done that to an extent this season with his 184 wRC+. He could be another Hideki Matsui, or he could be Yoshi Tsutsugo. Much of the interest will depend on whether teams believe in his ability to hit higher velocity and his defense, both skills Murakami has struggled with at times.