Could 2025 be the Year of the Blue Jay?
Photo of Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr. of the Blue Jays (Nathan Denette/CP)
The Blue Jays are 58-35 since May 1st, the best in the American League. Toronto’s ascendance has coalesced with the New York Yankees to descend to create a rather odd arc for the AL East. The Red Sox have also been quite hot, however, their starting pitching is coming down to earth and their offense struggled for a while after the Devers trade. The Rays offense has fallen off significantly in the 2nd half, putting together .228/.294/.388 down the stretch so far. As Mike Elias and the city of Baltimore well know, this season has been a tire fire for the Baltimore Orioles. The O’s were 21-36 through the end of May, too big of a hole to climb out of in a competitive division. Since that May 1st mark, the Jays easily have the best offense in baseball, a 122 wRC+ as a team. The lack of playoff success for a talented group was painful enough where there were plenty of calls to break the band up. Instead, they extended their star, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and now find themselves in a leverage position with the playoffs in sight. Now, the existential question, can this team win the World Series?
According to Fangraphs, the Jays have an 81.9% chance of winning the AL East, with the Red Sox and Yankees nipping at their heels still. Even if they do somehow play their way out of a division crown, they’ll get in by Wild Card. It’s by far more likely that they get a bye and win the division, a great position to be in heading into October. Fangraphs gives Toronto a 9.1% chance of winning the World Series, which is second highest in the American League. As previously stated, their offense is red hot thanks to offensive resurgences from veterans like Bo Bichette and George Springer. Though the offense was not nearly as good in 2024, it also wasn't a dominant obstacle to their success. One of the biggest differences is the concentration of production; Vlad Jr. carried the Jays on his back for much of 2024. He put up a 165 OPS+, while hitting .323 with 30 bombs. No one else on the club hit 20 longballs, and the highest any other everyday player hit was .265. Including the bench, the Jays have 10 above average hitters this year by OPS+, an incredible improvement over last year. Springer has an .889 OPS, Alejandro Kirk is hitting .296 and stealing bags, Bo Bichette is leading the league in hits. This lineup may not hit the most home runs, but they are leading the league in batting average by a longshot (Jays are hitting .268, next best AL team is Houston at .256). They may not be the 1995 Cleveland Indians hitting .291, but hitting .268 in a .242 league is an accomplishment. While Ross Atkins and the Jays’ big league roster has hitters in spades, they don’t have a lot of wheels. 35-year-old DH George Springer leads the team in stolen bases with 12, and the team ranks 28th in the league overall.
AL East Playoff Odds 2025 Blue Jays Fangraphs
Last season, the Blue Jays’ 4.82 bullpen ERA was the worst in the American League, which you could see by the eye test with all of the blown games throughout the year. In 2025, the Jays’ 4.05 bullpen ERA is a substantial improvement. Chad Green has been awful this year, a 5.56 ERA and 2.9 HR/9. Toronto outbid everyone on Jeff Hoffman despite concerns about his physical, and thankfully he has been healthy all year. Unfortunately for John Schneider, Hoffman has not been the dominant closer you would expect from a 3-year, $33M contract. Hoffman and Green have been balanced out by breakout performances by Brendon Little and Braydon Fisher. Little’s K rate has jumped from 18.7% in 2024 to 33.6% this year, and opposing teams are hitting .183 against him in 2025. Though he has an eye popping 45.8% whiff rate, his 15% BB rate is one of the worst in the league. Braydon Fisher is younger than Little and doesn’t have the same command problems. Fisher has a 0.99 WHIP and a 2.65 ERA in his rookie season in the show. His breaking stuff is giving hitter fits, and he should have some untapped potential given he’s only 25. Yariel Rodríguez and Yimi García have both been solid this year as well, but it was clear the Jays needed some bullpen help at the trade deadline if they were serious about a playoff push. They’ve added both Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland, with Louis being the headliner acquisition given his 2.02 ERA for the Twins this year. Undoubtedly this pen is better than last year; it won’t be elite, but at least it’s no longer a glaring weakness.
Toronto Blue Jays Bullpen 2025 (Baseball Reference)
From a starting pitching standpoint, the Jays have a dinosaur staff consisting of Scherzer (41), Chris Bassitt (36), Gausman (34), Jose Berrios (31), and their spring chicken lefty Eric Lauer (30). Mad Max looks like his younger self– he has a 1.89 ERA in three August starts. Can he stay healthy though? Bassitt and Gausman are solid, but they’re not going to give you an edge in most playoff games. They rely on a very good defense consisting of brand name gloves like Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, and Miles Straw. Though younger, José is a similar kind of pitcher, a workhorse guy who generally keeps his ERA nestled between 3.60 and 3.80. Though none of these guys are Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes, research shows one of the key determining factors for a deep playoff run is the ability of your starters to go deep into games. If the Jays lineup can hit and play defense at the level they have been for most of the year, this rotation doesn’t even need to be the best in the league for them to make a run at the Fall Classic. This team has a feel of being greater than the sum of its parts, similar to the 2023 Texas Rangers team I correctly forecasted as World Series Champs.