The Braves have the Best Record in Baseball?
Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves (Yahoo Sports)
Atlanta wasn’t the most likely or second most likely team to win the division entering 2026, but here we are. The Phillies are still a game under .500, while the Mets have been one of the worst teams in the league despite their earth shattering $383M tax payroll and $361M cash payroll. The Braves are 31-14, best record in the MLB right now through 45 games. They have a 85.3% chance of winning the NL East, and a 96.9% of making the postseason. How have they been so dominant? Well, through almost every phase of the game. Let’s start with their gem, starting pitching.
Rotation
The Braves have had a pitching lab for years, but this year we’ve truly seen some positive breakouts. Veteran sinker baller Martín Pérez has a 2.36 ERA through five starts, while back end starter Bryce Elder has a dazzling 1.81 ERA through nine. Strider fully looks like himself again, albeit he’s still down on velo. Rookie JR Ritchie has been solid, and Grant Holmes has been a steady presence as the 5th starter. Finally, 2024 NL Cy Young Winner Chris Sale has been a marvel since getting acquired from Boston. Sale is one of AA’s crown jewel moves, he couldn’t stay healthy in Boston and looked like a shell of himself in 2023. Fast forward, he finally picked up his first Cy in Atlanta, and carries an elite 1.96 ERA right now in his age 37 season. The unit as a whole has a 2.93 ERA, best in baseball. Walt Weiss has enough depth that he’s been able to deploy Reynaldo López as a reliever.
2026 Team SP ERA (Fangraphs)
Bullpen
The Braves also have the best bullpen ERA in the MLB, at 3.06. Closer and All Star Raisel Iglesias has yet to give up a run, with a 34.7% K rate. His set up guys, Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee, both have ERA under 1.00, while rookie Didier Fuentes has looked good out of the pen. As mentioned, Reynaldo is in the pen now, but Martín Pérez is also listed in the pen on roster resources due to Atlanta’s SP depth. Former trade acquisitions Aaron Bummer and Tyler Kinley have been fine this season, but they should be able to provide solid medium leverage relief throughout the season.
Lineup
This lineup was 14th in the MLB last season, with down years from Matt Olson, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, and more. Drake Baldwin was the exception, posting an .810 OPS on his way to the NL ROY. Like most of the guys on this club, Baldwin is having a better year in 2026 than he did in 2025. The other three aforementioned guys are having big years, and Ronald Acuña Jr. is mostly healthy save a minor hamstring injury. Despite Austin Riley’s continued struggles, the team’s 117 wRC+ ranks 2nd behind the juggernaut Dodgers. Dom Smith is hitting .349 for Walt, giving him some contact ability any team would love to have. If Smith can keep raking and Riley can turn it around, this lineup will be formidable in the playoffs.
Drake Baldwin 2026 Hitting Metrics (Baseball Savant)
Defense + Baserunning
Matt Olson is the most decorated defender in this group, but there are plenty of above average defenders on this roster. Moreover, Atlanta doesn’t like to carry guys who are defensive liabilities, which is why they rank 4th in the MLB in OAA so far this season. They did trade some defense for offense in the Allen-Mauricio Dubón swap, but Dubón himself has two Gold Gloves. According to statcast, the Braves are 14th in baserunning this season, while last season they ranked 26th with a -4.6 XBR rating. This is their weakest phase of the game, but their elite pitching, and deep lineup gives them credibility as a legit threat to the Cubs and Dodgers this season. It probably didn’t hurt that the Mets fell on their face, but the Phillies are hot and certainly not out of the NL east crown yet.
