The Early Innings

The game opened with 2025 NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin punching a 1-2 Tarik Skubal Changeup past the Dodgers infield for a base hit. It looked to be like more Game 3 Braves magic was in store early. Acuña Jr. managed to get Baldwin to second on a grounder, and the path to manufactured runs on the two-time was pretty clear. How Atlanta's hopes were crushed. Albies tapped a heater to the former MVP Mookie Betts and Matt Olson popped up 99 mph to end the inning.

A very ‘baseball’ top half for the Braves, but zero strikeouts! Atlanta’s offense wasn’t lost yet. The pitching would have to hold it together against a lineup deep one-through-nine. Dylan Dodd was the opener for the Braves and proved excellent at putting up goose eggs:

If you’re looking for a good read, this piece about how effective Dodd’s sinker is in 4-seam locations is a great one for you nerds out there (I’m in on it too). He started the inning by dotting up his cutter to Betts and eventually got the call on some great Sean Murphy framing to sit the right-fielder shortstop down. A certain Shohei Ohtani muscled a single and Will Smith went back to the dugout on the infield fly rule. Yet another former MVP in Freddie Freeman shot one to Matt Olson who stepped on first for the third out. Dodd certainly wasn’t looking untouchable, but Walt Weiss’ vision for this bullpen game was very clear.

The middle of Atlanta’s order looked like easy pickings for Skubal. Michael Harris II tapped his head to contest a poor call of 99 mph, but struck out anyways, the contact specialist Mauricio Dubon fell quickly, and NLWC Game 1 hero Austin Riley was carved up by the left-hander. That looked a tad more like Tarik Skubal, no?

Rising to the challenge of such a great inning for Skubal, Dodd punched out Teoscar Hernández, ruined Kyle Tucker’s at-bat with a K, and struck out the side with Andy Pages. The Braves came into this game as massive underdogs, but they can clearly play with the very best even if you sat down to watch this game or read this article and had no idea the former 3rd rounder Dodd existed.

But back to the Dodgers all-planet pitching staff. Skubal punched out the catcher Murphy on one of his mythical curveballs, good for only 4% usage against righties. Then he showed Ha-Seong Kim why his changeup was the best pitch in baseball last season with another punchout, and got Baldwin this time with another strikeout. Frozen pizza, as Braves broadcaster Brandon Gaudin would put it.

Dodd continued to shove for Atlanta by beating Max Muncy to the bag for out #1, inducing a quick grounder of Tommy Edman, giving up a quick single to Betts, and forcing Shohei to line out to Ozzie. That’s the book for Dylan Dodd. 3.0 innings, 0 runs, 4 Ks.

This sort of work looks to be the mission for Atlanta this October. Ray Kerr’s work as an opener helped to end the Phillies’ season, and Dodd put up quality work while the Braves were short a trustworthy third starter. The Braves bullpen is undeniably effective, and their goal this October will be to go to arms like Suarez, Iglesias, and Fuentes to get the final outs while they homer their way to a ring ceremony. Speaking of which, exactly zero runs were scored this game without someone putting the ball in the seats.

The Middle Innings

The Braves really seemed to flame out here in the 4th. The triple crown winner almost fell to Acuña’s MVP bat, but Tommy Edman flashed the leather and got the out. Albies flew out quickly to Kyle Tucker, and Matt Olson punched out on the nasty fastball/changeup combo. Oof. This inning was 9 pitches, and proved exactly why Los Angeles made the trade with Detroit.

Victor Mederos came to the bump for Atlanta, and despite unqualified numbers and a 3.41 ERA, he’s gotten the Braves through some tough spots and proven he can get the big outs (peep the 6 - 1 record in 34.1 innings). He’s got a big fastball and favors a (usually) very decent cutter. Oh how the Dodgers ruin things.

A two-pitch flyout had my hopes high for the young righty, but they were quickly smashed by one of those 4-pitch walks that make pitching coaches sigh and fans bite their nails. Victor worked Teoscar Hernández into a similar spot Dodd had, but one missed location here ended it all. A center cut-fastball at 92 mph went 430 feet into left-center. Still trustworthy of his guy, Walt let Mederos try to work through it, but Kyle Tucker burned a single past Victor to force Atlanta to get another arm.

AJ Smith-Shawver had a very confusing day.

Usually a starter, AJ has been working out of the bullpen with his elite stuff while refining his command post-UCL reconstruction. His fastball has sat routinely 98 in relief, while his elite splitter and snapping curveball play way up. Or so they should. Smith-Shawver made genuinely good pitches tonight, but the locations weren’t good enough to get him past Los Angeles. He induced a flyout from Pages and probably made Pitching Ninja’s segment tomorrow with a curveball to Max Muncy that nearly hit the plate. A cookie splitter to Max and he bullied it to Olson for the third out. Bumpy inning for Atlanta, but a 2-0 Dodgers nonetheless.

The 5th came and Skubal continued playing hide-and-seek with the Braves batting order. Michael Harris III’s dad (yes that’s his son’s name, he goes by Tripp) let Skubal off the hook via groundout to Freddie, and Dubon gave a changeup a ride to the warning track. Riley punched out again on a Cy Young changeup. A good inning, but Skubal didn’t seem insurmountable… except for the fact that he hadn’t even thrown 70 pitches by the 6th. He was cruising through Atlanta’s star-studded offense.

Smith-Shawver came out throwing flames. He started the at-bat to Edman with a 98 mph fastball, slowed him down to 78, and ended it on an 86 mph splitter. AJ came to show exactly why he could’ve gone to college as a quarterback. Betts was again the thorn in the Braves’ side when he took a 4-pitch walk by watching 99 mph go off the outside corner. Shohei made some scary contact, but well within reach of Dubon for a second out. Ha-Seong Kim proved why he’s on the roster with an epic throw to Matt Olson. Inning over, goodnight.

Sean Murphy came to wake the Dodgers up. He took Skubal’s turbo sinker into the stratosphere with a 420ft homer to center field. Kim came up again looking to turn the order over, and worked the lefty to 3-2 and took his walk on ball 4. The Braves seemed to have something cooking in this 6th inning. Drake Baldwin chopped one to Mookie and the Dodgers got the speedy Kim at second. Ronald grounded out to third, and Los Angeles again took the out at second. The wheels almost fell off for Skubal against the 2B Albies. Three way high/away misses and Ozzie took his base with little effort. Matt Olson came up to plate looking to do damage, but Skubal managed to find enough of the zone to get a heartbreaking flyout on a 2-2 count to left. Rally stifled.

Smith-Shawver went back to work. A leaping catch by Kim and Atlanta stole a single from Mr. October (alternatively known as Freddie Freeman). Teo scorched middle-middle 99 mph straight past second and found himself a single. And then $57.2 million Kyle Tucker came to the plate. AJ again mislocated a fastball to the middle, and Tucker blasted the mistake to right field. 4-1. It looked like the Braves were losing their hold on this game.

The right-hander recollected himself to get a punchout on a splitter, but tried it one-too-many times against Max Muncy, who express mailed the ball 3 rows out of Acuña’s reach. The machine of a roster Los Angeles built was humming.

The Late Innings

The 7th was given to birthday-boy Brock Stewart after Skubal’s struggles, and he managed to induce yet another grounder to Mookie Betts. Dubon was frozen for strike three and Riley hit the ball on the ground again. Atlanta needed a response here, but they seemed to let the innings run out.

Who do you call down 4 runs against the Dodgers in October? Why, the slowest four-seam in baseball of course! Brent Suter took the ball for the Braves and spammed sinkers and changeups to get a flyout, flyout, single, and a punchout. The Harvard graduate actually sports the fastest tempo of any pitcher in MLB, so the inning was sure to be quick for Atlanta.

The top of the 8th went to Alex Vesia, a personal favorite pitcher of mine. A quick pop out to Betts and Atlanta called upon deadline acquisition Lane Thomas to pinch hit for Ha-Seong Kim. The plate approach was definitely there, but the high slot lefty got the better of Lane for a strikeout. (D)Rake Baldwin could not fulfill his nickname here and flew out.

The Dodgers came back for more against Brent Suter, but the results were even worse for the juggernaut offense. Tucker and Pages both punched out and Max Muncy sent a tapper to Olson.

Wanting to take no chances, Roberts called on his closer Tanner Scott against the 2-3-4 hitters. Boy did the Braves make it dramatic. Slider, slider, fastball, fastball, slider, slider, and one too many sliders to Acuña for a single. A rallying cry for Atlanta, Albies dumped a first-pitch fastball into the seats to put the game in range. The rally was brewing.

Dave Roberts and the bullpen scrambled to get another arm up as Matt Olson and Michael Harris let Scott get away with not having his best stuff. Los Angeles called upon one last arm in Evan Phillips to end the game, and he scared them further by allowing a walk to Mauricio, but 0-2 quickly Austin Riley went, and the game was over via… a groundout to Mookie Betts. They never end, do they?

The Braves/Dodgers series honestly looks to be a dogfight according to this game. Even the game’s best pitchers like Skubal have their vulnerable inning. Today, two of Atlanta’s arms lost it. For the Dodgers, only Scott really gave them a scare. Despite the wipeout stuff, Atlanta can’t rationalize trusting AJ Smith-Shawver given the issue with locations, and will definitely need Tyler Mahle and Chris Sale to carry this pitching staff. Atlanta’s offense has yet to prove helpless against the Dodgers’ elite staff, while Los Angeles’ pitching proved to be just what it is: elite, but not untouchable. Atlanta consistently got the better of some of LA’s finest pitchers while the offense was defined by hard contact against median-level pitching. Atlanta has proven that they can win, while the Dodgers have only proven they bleed.

Regardless, the score was 5 - 3 and frankly little else matters as the fall weather comes through. Thus far, the star-power NLDS bracket has been defined by the homer, walk, and strikeout, as it should be for these two division winners.

This article was produced by Ransom Fassett for Painting Corners, you can find more of his work here.

Dodgers Take Round One of NLDS

The Early Innings

The Middle Innings

The Late Innings

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