How The Top Two Pitching Prospects Have Fared in 2026
Picture courtesy of MSN
Heading into the 2026 season, the Phillies and the Pirates were in two different tiers in the NL hierarchy. The Phillies entered the season with the same expectations as the past few years: World Series or bust. On the other hand, the Pirates entered the year after having one of their most active off-seasons in many years. Yet, a successful season would have them competing for a playoff berth in a very competitive division. Both Pennsylvania teams would have optimism that their young, blue chip pitching prospect would help them get to October.
But, Phillies’ Andrew Painter and Pirates’ Bubba Chandler have had their struggles this year.
Background
The Phillies drafted RHP Andrew Painter out of a Florida high school in the 1st round of the 2021 draft. Painter would dominate the lower minors, finishing the 2022 season in AA and becoming a top 20 prospect. Painter would miss the 2023 and 2024 seasons due to Tommy John surgery. 2025 was a season for Painter to not only recover from his surgery but enter the upper minor leagues. Entering 2026, he was still viewed as a top 20-25 prospect and the Phillies FO had expectations that he would be able to break camp in the rotation.
The Pirates drafted RHP Bubba Chandler out of a Georgia high school in the 3rd round of the 2021 draft. Drafted as a pitcher and shortstop, he decided to focus solely on pitching entering the 2023 season. He ascended the ranks and became a top 20 prospect, as well. Chandler made his MLB debut in 2025 and pitched 31.1 innings. He produced a 4.02 ERA and a 2.66 FIP. His 25% K% was excellent and his 3.2% BB% was microscopic.
Stats, The Arsenal and Their Effectiveness
The 23 year old Painter has pitched 65 innings this year. He’s produced a 7.06 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 17.7% K%, and 8% BB%. Painter was demoted to AAA on June 17th. Painter has been scouted as having a potentially 60 grade*FN1 curveball and 60 grade command overall. His upside/potential 55 grade slider and changeup offer compelling secondary pitches. His most thrown pitch this year has been his 4-seam fastball, which has been obliterated to the tune of .404/.481/.660 with a 10.6% whiff rate. Of the six pitches he’s thrown at least 100 times this year (4-seam, slider, split-finger, sweeper, sinker, and curveball) only the two (split-finger and curveball) have been effective. And of the six pitches, only two have good whiff rates (slider at 37.7% and split-finger at 38.4%) with his curveball also missing bats at a decent rate (25%). Per Baseball Savant’s Run Value statistic, Painter’s 4-seam fastball has yielded a -11 run value this year. Not great.
The 23 year old Chandler has pitched 89.2 innings this year. He’s produced a 4.82 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 19.8% K%, and 13.0% BB%. Chandler has been scouted as having both a 70 grade fastball and changeup. While command is one of Painter’s strengths, Chandler’s current 40 grade command (potential 45 grade) has reared its ugly head to the tune of a 13% BB%. Despite the high walk rate, he’s been able to limit the damage with his three primary pitches (4-seam fastball, slider, and changeup). He throws his 4-seam 48% of the time and it has yielded .216/.333/.409 against batters. While his slider has struggled to get outs (.294/.383/.515), his changeup has come as advertised (.194/.249/.323) against batters.
Conclusion
Both pitchers were viewed as interchangeable as the consensus top two pitching prospects in the minors. Both of these pitchers still exhibit front line starter potential and are essentially untouchable in trade discussions. As we know, progress is not linear and can take time. Not every rookie pitcher shoots out of the gates like Paul Skenes, Chase Burns, or Jacob Misiorowski. Thus, why the acronym TINSTAAPP was born. TINSTAAP means “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” and was created due to the volatility and varying success levels of a pitcher. Max Scherzer was 28 years old before he recorded a full season with a sub-3.50 ERA. Max Meyer debuted at age 23 and (partly due to injury), this is his first year with a sub-4.70 ERA (currently has a 2.58 ERA).
Rookies struggle. The majors are hard. But both teams were expecting both young pitchers to come in and provide productive innings. To an extent, both have produced roughly the equivalent of a #5 pitcher (moreso Chandler than Painter).
Since Painter’s demotion, he’s had two starts and pitched 10 innings. He’s allowed 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 earned runs (1.80 ERA & 2.45 FIP), and 10 strikeouts (27% K%) while allowing a .176 BAA.
The Phillies and Pirates are both firmly in the playoff race, with the Phillies maintaining a wild card position while the Pirates need to jump a few teams to grab a wild card spot. The Pirates can be optimistic as Chandler has produced a 4.28 xERA thus far.
One of my (many) soapboxes is that some pitchers take longer than others to return from major surgery. One recent example is Sandy Alcántara. The former Cy Young winner had Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2024 season. He had accrued 16.1 bWAR the three seasons before his surgery yet after completing his rehab, he had mixed results in 2025, which led to his highest BB% and ERA since the Covid season. This year, he’s seen his BB% cut from 7.7% to 6.4%.
Chandler’s MLB stats from 2026; infographic via TJ Stats
Painter’s MLB stats from 2026; infographic via TJ Stats
Painter’s AAA stats; infographic via TJ Stats
As the saying goes, patience is a virtue. The Pirates have a little more wiggle room with their pitching depth than the Phillies do, nor do they have the high expectations the Phillies do. Yet, these two blue-chip prospects are part of the foundation to their team’s future success. Their development and maturation as pitchers should come first. In 5 years, I believe we will be having a conversation as to which one should be starting in the NL for the All-Star game. Until then, fans are hoping to see continued progress, no matter how small.
Michael L. Sküpin (Substack profile) is a grizzled millennial husband/dad who loves talking baseball, football, hockey, basketball, college sports, sports business, fantasy sports, and most other sports. Fandoms include Detroit, Philadelphia, & Indianapolis. Also, happy to chat about advocacy, mental health, social justice, and peace.
Footnotes
Scouting grades are referred to using a 20-80 scale.
Resources
Baseball Savant: Statcast, Trending MLB Players and Visualizations | baseballsavant.com
MLB Stats, Scores, History, & Records | Baseball-Reference.com