2024 PC Top 5 Third Basemen in the MLB
Jose Ramirez (David Richard/USA Today)
Third base is known as the hot corner for a reason. Some of the hardest pulled balls by right handed hitters scream toward third base, and a third baseman is expected to gobble them up. Perhaps first and foremost, there are a lot of tough throws at third. You’re flipping a lot of 5-4-3 double plays, running in on bunts, and occasionally making throws from the third base foul line all the way to 1st. Even with all of these expectations, the offensive standard is almost the level of first base despite the higher demand defensively. You might not need quite as much range as shortstop, but you need even more throwing ability, both in accuracy and in range. Those throws also need to be quick, particularly when you have someone like Trea Turner or Bobby Witt Jr. running down the 1st base line. Given the standards in both phases of the game, third base has been home to many all time greats, including Chipper Jones, Mike Schmidt, and Eddie Mathews. The position is in good hands right now, with established studs like Jose Ramirez and Austin Riley, while young guys like Gunnar Henderson and Josh Jung are making their impact.
5) Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
2024 is a walk year for Alex Bregman, and he looks primed for a huge payday in the free agent market. Alex hasn’t been the superstar recently that he was in 2018 and 2019 (both top 5 MVP finishes), but there is a lot to like about the player. He’s a solid 3rd baseman, with a 0.5 UZR/150 and a 3 DRS over the last three seasons. Alex also has the history of elite production from 2018 and 2019, but hasn’t been able to replicate that since (trashcans?). Still, he’s gotten MVP votes in both 2022 and 2023, while consistently flashing 25 homer power and keeping his contact rates high, producing several seasons with a BB:K ratio of over 1.0. If Bregman’s 35-40 HR power does re-emerge, and he hits .290 instead of .260, he’s going to get a historic payday. We’re five years removed from that production at this point though, so it seems more likely that we see .265 with 25 HR and decent defense at the hot corner and that will still get him a nine figure payday. Bregman is also durable, playing 155+ games in all but one full MLB season in his career (2021). For me, this is what puts him over the top when compared to a young star like Raffy Devers, who has a superior offensive profile, but is generally regarded as a lousy defender.
2022-2023 fWAR Leaders at 3B (Fangraphs)
4) Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar played short and third last year, and graded well at both. However, phenom Jackson Holliday is considered the shortstop of the future, and that pushes Gunnar over to 3B. The Orioles org is so stacked that they’re moving their ROY shortstop for another shortstop prospect who is supposed to be even better. When looking at the ZIPS projections for 2024 (below), Gunnar ranks 2nd behind Jose Ramirez among 3B with a projected 4.8 fWAR. Gunnar is one of the better defenders at the position, and also has a chance to hit 30 HR this year. At 22, he’s easily the youngest guy on this list, and he’s likely still three or four years away from his peak as a player. Given he’s the reigning ROY and finished 8th in the AL MVP, it’s fair to say the sky's the limit for Henderson and he might have the highest upside of any third baseman in the game right now.
3) Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Machado has elbow repair surgery at the end of the 2023 season, and probably won’t be ready to play defense by opening day. Still, he’ll slot as a DH until he’s ready to play on the infield dirt. Though he’s coming off the injury, ZIPS projects him for a 4.1 fWAR season, with 26 HR and 92 RBI. Manny won a Platinum Glove (best defender in the league), and also has 5 different top 10 MVP finishes over his career. He’s been elite for so long that I think it’s become common to take him for granted and underestimate him, but Machado is a Hall of Fame guy who’s still playing at a premium level in his early thirties. ZIPS does project a drop in production over the next few years as Machado enters his mid-thirties, which is fair. For now though, he’s the stud of the San Diego Padres, and the heart of the team. He already has over 1700 Major League hits, and I expect many more. He ranked 77th percentile in hard hit % and 76th percentile in exit velocity in 2023, and he’s still an elite defender. This puts him over the top when compared to Gunnar, another young Orioles shortstop who was pushed over to third base.
Manny Machado 2023 Stats (Baseball Savant)
2) Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Similar to Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley is a core player in the historically good Atlanta Braves lineup. ZIPS projects him for 34 HR in 2024, which is the most of any third baseman in the league. Austin has 75 HR in the last two seasons, which is #1 at the position by a large margin (Machado is #2 with 62 HR). In the last few years, Riley has been slightly ahead of the other premium hitters at the position, such as Jose Ramirez, Devers, and Machado. Riley has the highest wOBA with a .373 mark from 2021-2023 among this group as well, with Devers trailing (.368). Austin has a very similar profile to Devers, but one major difference is Riley has mixed reviews defensively, where Devers is resoundingly bad at third. Both have major power though, and Riley is a glimpse for Boston fans of what Devers could be if he was less of a liability defensively. Austin also has similar durability to Bregman, with at least 156 games played in each of the last three years.
2022-2023 HR Leaders at 3B (Fangraphs)
1) Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
Jose is my #1 third baseman, and he’s ZIPS #1 for 2024, with a 5.2 fWAR projection. Though Riley’s offensive numbers are superior, Ramirez is an above average defender, and consistently puts up the highest fWAR at his position. From 2021-2023, Jose has an 18.1 cumulative fWAR, or an average of 6.0 fWAR/year. He hits 30 HR a year, steals 25 bags, plays great defense, and hits around .280. He does everything well, and is one of the only 5 tool guys at third base. Jose’s been placed top 10 in the MVP race in 6 of the last 7 seasons, with four top 5 finishes. He’s also led the American League in intentional walks in back to back seasons, which can be a good measurement of how much teams don’t want to face a hitter in high leverage moments.
2021-2023 fWAR Leaders at 3B (Fangraphs)
Now that we’ve finished our 2024 infield, we can put it all together.
PC 2024 infield is:
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Mookie Betts
SS Corey Seager
3B Jose Ramirez.
*Stats are as of 1/30/29