Are Orioles the AL East Favorite After Getting Corbin Burnes?
Corbin Burnes of the Baltimore Orioles(MLB)
DraftKings has the Yankees pegged as +150 AL East Favorites, and most of the major books have the Yankees favored as well. The Orioles are not far behind following the Burnes trade, with DK projecting them behind New York at +230 for the division crown. While clubs like the Rays and the Red Sox have likely lost net overall talent this winter, the Yankees have added superstar Juan Soto, as well as Alex Verdugo and Marcus Stroman. The Orioles have also added, starting with reliever Craig Kimbrel and finishing with a Cy Young award winner. Corbin Burnes vaults to the front of a Baltimore rotation that now includes a top 3 of Burnes, Kyle Bradish, and Grayson Rodriguez. Grayson had a huge 2nd half in 2023, with a 2.58 ERA after the AS break and Bradish finished 4th in the AL Cy Young voting. With Corbin locked in for a year as the ace of the O’s, they have an argument for the best top 3 in the American League East.
2023 Fangraphs Starting Rotation
Burnes is the only starter in the MLB over the last three seasons to throw 500+ innings (562.2) and put up a sub 3.00 ERA (2.94). He’s similar to Gerrit Cole in that he pairs Cy Young upside and the consistency you need, which is a nice combination for a huge payday. It’s unlikely that Baltimore will be able to keep him past this year, at least not before he hits the FA market and draws some massive offers. Evenstill, the package they sent to Milwaukee was worth parting with to land a stud who moves the needle for your pitching staff. The Brewers get Joey Ortiz, a middle infielder that the Orioles didn’t even have room for because they’re so stacked, and DL Hall, a young arm with major swing and miss ability, but some major command issues. He has reliever risk, but probably has the floor of a third or fourth bullpen guy because his K rates are going to be in the 30% range consistently. Finally, the Brewers get a Competitive Balance A pick, in a draft regarded by most drafts as thin, but it’s still an opportunity to grab another talented piece to win this trade and recreate a competitive window. As Ben Clemens points out in his Corbin Burnes trade article, there are only five seasons total where Adley Rustchman and Gunnar Henderson play together, and only one left. This window could be prolonged with extensions, but for now we should work with guarantees. If the core has roughly four years left in this competitive window before guys leave and things get really expensive, the Orioles can’t afford to waste another one of these years where their talented core guys are playing together.
Orioles Multi Year Contract Breakdown (Spotrac)
As you can see above, core guys like Rutschman, Felix Bautista, and Tyler Wells are all free agents at the end of the 2027 season. This exemplifies the need for Mike Elias to acquire a star like Corbin Burnes this season, while they have their loaded roster together. Even having traded pieces to acquire Burnes, the Orioles still have the #1 farm system in the MLB, and have also managed to hold onto center fielder Cedric Mullins, who is one of the early bright spots of this rebuild. The Orioles finished 7th in the AL in wRC+ with a 105 mark, and their young lineup is going to be one year older this season. They have #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday expected to play short this year, which should be a nice addition to a young Baltimore lineup that should have positive momentum from their 2023 results. On the pitching side, the starting rotation also finished 7th in the MLB by ERA (4.14), but it got really ugly in the ALDS. It was clear that the front office would need to acquire a frontline starter if Baltimore is going to make a deep Postseason run. While they did lose veteran Kyle Gibson to free agency, rookie Grayson Rodriguez is a much improved pitcher after he came back from his demotion to AAA, and I expect him to be a mid rotation starter, if not better. John Means is also finally healthy again, and while a big season can’t be relied on after a major injury, it’s not out of the question. Back in 2019, he finished 2nd in ROY and made the AS team, showing his potential to contribute to a big league staff.
Grayson Rodriguez 2023 Splits by Month (Fangraphs)
Finally, when it comes to the bullpen, the unit’s 3.55 ERA finished 3rd in the AL, but closer Felix Bautista is coming off Tommy John surgery from October, and is likely out for all of 2024. This is still a decent unit, with Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano, and Danny Coulombe leading the way. They’ll have their work cut out for them to match their 2023 production, when Bautista finished with a 1.48 ERA and racked up a few Cy Young votes. When you put it all together, this projects as a 90-91 win team in the AL East. The Yankees project higher in the 93-94 win range, but their success is much more concentrated on a couple players (e.g. Cole, Judge, Soto). If one of these three guys is out for an extended period of time, the O’s and Yankees look like an even match for 2024.Toronto, Tampa, and Boston will jockey for that third slot, but right now it seems like the Red Sox might be poised for another 5th place finish unless they make some major adds. This is a make or break year for the Blue Jays core, and Tampa’s stars are starting to get expensive in arbitration as well. My guess is the Fenway Sports Group saw the stacked landscape in the East and thought twice about going full throttle. Perhaps, it was the plan all along, but either way I don’t see them competing to win the East unless they have a 95th percentile outcome season. If the Blue Jays see another top 3 MVP finish from Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette makes another jump, this will be a formidable lineup. The Jays have a nice well rounded rotation led by Kevin Gausman, and made some additions to their bullpen, including Yariel Rodriguez and Genesis Cabrera. The Rays tore it up as the best team in baseball early last year, before fading and then facing a massive scandal with their former superstar, Wander Franco. They need phenom Junior Caminero to make the leap to face MLB pitching, and they’ll need breakouts from guys like Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot to offset the loss of their ace, Tyler Glasnow.
Blue Jays 2024 Projected Lineup (Fangraphs)
Ostensibly, you can understand why the Yankees are the favorite, but the margin is narrow– injuries are not a small factor. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees best players are in their primes, while most of the Orioles roster is still getting better. Clubs in the AL Central still appear undercooked for a Postseason run, and AL West clubs like the Astros and Rangers haven’t made enough major moves to establish themselves as a favorite in the American League. Seattle has made some trades to their credit, but their front office is handcuffed due to ownership’s hesitation to spend. Don’t be surprised if the Orioles are the best in the league by the trade deadline, and Mike Elias makes another major move to make the stars align for October. What if they got Dylan Cease in August and paired him with Burnes? They have the prospects to pull it off and the motivation to do it.
*Stats are as of 2/5/24