2024 PC Top 5 First Basemen in the MLB

Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves *(Mercer University)*

After putting out the NPB article, I had to think about what the next conversation would be. I know I am not unique in my taste for lists, especially baseball lists. Historically, I've compiled lists by position, team, etc. whether on paper or in my head every offseason for the past 15 years or so. This year, I’m going to share those lists with the reader, and I decided to start in the infield from right to left. I’ll eventually cover every position, but I’ll start with 1st base today. Hopefully, after this series, the reader will gain familiarity with the best players in the league, as well as the relative positions and aggregate values their favorite players hold relative to the rest of Major League Baseball.

5) Pete Alonso, Mets

Polar Bear has been the pinnacle of consistency over the last three years, which is what places him in the #5 slot over Yandy and Christian Walker. Yandy Diaz is coming off a batting title and Walker is probably the best defender in the league at 1B. However, neither one has ever hit 40 homers in a season, and Pete does it every year. Alonso is only 29 years old with a career average of 45 HR per 162 games. He also leads the MLB in home runs since 2019, plays solid defense at first base, and will hit around .250 long term. Alonso is famously in a contract year, making it a good bet that he’ll put up more than the 4.0 WAR or so that he has produced each of the past few seasons.

4) Bryce Harper, Phillies

Harper is #4 for a couple reasons. He’s still getting used to first base, and has only averaged 112 games over the last two seasons. Even so, Harper’s last fully healthy season produced an MVP, and he has averaged 4.0 WAR in the past three seasons despite a few significant injuries keeping him off the field. Knowing Harper, he’ll be above average at 1B defensively, similar to the way Tatis migrated to the outfield and became an elite right fielder. Everything Bryce does on the baseball field is elite, and the 2X MVP has also been historically good in the playoffs. He’s got 16 HR in only 49 Postseason games, and somehow found a way to outperform his regular season numbers. In my book, wherever Harper plays he’s going to be on the top 5 list. In fact, if Harper is healthy all year, I can envision another potential MVP campaign.

Bryce Harper Career Postseason Stats *(bRef)*

3) Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals

Goldy was behind Harper on MLB Network’s list, which I understand, but disagree with. He’s older at 36, and is coming off a down year. He won the NL MVP in 2022 though, averaging 5.7 bWAR in the past three seasons. Paul also is a 4X GG 1B, and he’s still good defensively even if he’s not as agile as he used to be. His Baseball Savant Page is filled with red, highlighted by a 50.8% hard hit that rates in the 93rd percentile. The swing and miss is a bit of a concern, but Goldy’s extensive track record of elite production has earned him the benefit of the doubt coming off a down season. Also worth noting is that his .350 wOBA is much lower than his .367 xwOBA, indicating he had some tough luck in 2023.

2023 Goldschmidt Stats *(Baseball Savant)*

2) Matt Olson, Braves

Olson had a down year by his standards in 2022, hitting 34 homers, but only managing to hit .240. 2023 was a different story, when he led the major leagues in home runs (54) and RBI (139). Olson is good for 35+ home runs every year, averaging 42 HR from 2021-2023. He’s a 2X GG first baseman, and hasn’t struck out more than 25% since 2020. The combination of prodigious power, defense, and contact ability makes Olson a truly elite player. He’s on his way to the Hall of Fame if he can stay on track, and he’s got a strong chance to win an MVP before it’s all said and done.

Matt Olson 2021-2023 Cumulative and Average Stats *(bRef)*

1) Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Over the past three seasons (I’m not even including his 2020 MVP season), Freddie has a 19.9 fWAR, about twice that of Vlad Jr. and Pete Alonso. Paul Goldschmidt is in a distant second place for 1B, with a 15.6 fWAR. Freeman also hit .319 in that stretch, in a generation where the MLB batting average sits in the .240-.250 range. Freeman leads his position in the OBP category by a big margin. From 2021-2023, Freeman has a .403 OBP and no one else is even above .390 among first basemen. Freddie has been top 10 in MVP voting six years in a row, and has a good track record of staying healthy as well. His elite production year after year gives him the title of King of the Hill at first base until further notice.