Discussing the NPB and the Next Wave of Japanese Stars

The last few offseasons have been big for Japanese baseball and for the migration of its stars to the Major Leagues. Last season, we saw Kodai Senga finish 2nd in the NL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a 2.98 ERA and striking 202 guys in only 166.1 innings of work. Senga was forced to settle for 5/$75M due to health concerns, but he showed what he could do in the MLB if he stays healthy. Senga is one of several players who came over from Nippon Pro Baseball who had immediate success and made an All Star team as a rookie. Masataka Yoshida also had a solid year, though his contract isn’t the bargain that Senga’s is. He’s on a 5/$90M deal and he’s being paid almost entirely to hit. He was a .327 hitter in the NPB, and hit .316 in the first half of his MLB rookie season before he wore down after the All Star Break. He’s not a good outfielder, but he’s probably not as bad as the defensive sabermetrics indicate. He’s similar to Seiya Suzuki in that he’s a Japanese outfielder who can clearly hit, but the power hasn’t really shown up yet.Yoshida only hit 5 home runs in 62 games after the All Star Break, and he is a player that regularly hit 20-30 home runs every season in the NPB. Suzuki has averaged 17 HR in his first two MLB seasons after hitting 38 HR in only 439 NPB at bats, meaning he’s hitting a HR every 26.82 AB in the majors after hitting 182 HR in 2976 NPB at bats (16.35%).

Seiya Suzuki’s Career MLB & NPB Stats *(bRef)*

Japanese hitters seem to have issues with the higher velocity, while the Japanese pitching has to adjust to the command and repertoire they need at the Major League level. Since the hitters are better and hit the ball much harder, NPB pitchers usually see their home run rate spike to some extent when they get stateside. Evenstill, this is a pool of proven talent that’s getting better and better. Japanese players form a long history of success in transitioning to the MLB, from Ichiro Suzuki to Shohei Ohtani. The respect the MLB front offices are paying to the league is weighed in the bags of money paid to players like Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Believe it or not, there is more talent to come. However, there is red tape obstructing these stars from the MLB. There are essentially three different paths an NPB player can take to the MLB. Option 1 is entering as an amateur instead of a free agent, in which case the NPB club and the player lose a ton of money, but don’t need to go through the posting system (this is the route Ohtani took). Option 2 is the most common, the posting system: a player needs to have six years of service and be at least 25 years of age. These two stipulations are preventing young Japanese stars from coming to the MLB at a younger age. If they wait until age 25 (Yamamoto is 25), they get paid as a free agent and the Japanese club gets a posting fee. For example, Yamamoto’s $50.6M posting fee goes to his NPB club, the Orix Buffaloes.

NPB Posting Fee

Contract worth less than $25 million: 20% of contract value
Contract worth $25 million to $50 million: $5 million plus 17.5% of amount over $25 million
Contract worth more than $50 million: $9.275 million plus 15% of amount over $50 million

The third and final option is accruing nine years of service to become an unrestricted international free agent. The player is in control in this circumstance, but usually these nine years cut significantly into the player’s prime. Typically, the top talent wants to consider the MLB once they hit 25 and accrue those six years of pro service. Let’s take a look at a few stars who could meet these requirements in the next few seasons.

1.Roki Sasaki, SP | 22 y.o. | Chiba Lotte Marines

Posting Est. November 2026

Sasaki showed his potential in the World Baseball Classic (WBC) and when he threw his 19K perfect game back in April 2022. There is a possibility that Roki is posted prior to 2026, but that’s contingent on the Chiba Lotte Marines and I wouldn’t count on them posting since they have a chance to maximize the posting fee. Also, if he does go that route, he’d be classified as an amateur and miss out on a major payday like Ohtani did (obviously things worked out fine for him). Sasaki projects as an ace in the MLB with a fastball, splitter, and slider– all three pitches are good. His splitter and fastball (99-101 MPH) are up to scratch, and he’s consistently above 30% K rate, showing his dominance against NPB hitters. He’s got a 2.00 ERA in his 3 seasons with 376 K in only 283.2 innings of work, which amounts to 11.9 K/9. Shintaro Fujinami noted that he thinks Sasaki is better than Yamamoto in his interview with Fangraphs, but he believes both will be successful in the MLB. Sasaki is tall and lanky, and throws gas. The Marines’ original concern was his health, but Roki has shown some durability early on in his career. To me, I don’t think there is any way he’s not an All Star in the MLB unless he never comes stateside or can’t stay on the bump. He’ll be highly sought after, and has potential for a record breaking deal.

2. Munetaka Murakami, 3B | 24 y.o. | Tokyo Yakult Swallows

Posting Est. November 2024

Murakami is Japan’s Aaron Judge in the sense that he has power no one else has, and he earned a Triple Crown while hitting the 2nd most home runs ever in an NPB season in 2022 (former MLB player Balentien hit 60 in 2013). Murakami has a lot of swing and miss, with a 24.88% K Rate, but he also walks a ton (16.19% career BB rate). That rate would have been third in the MLB last year, only behind Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber. It’s unreasonable to expect Murakami to strike out in the 30% range, so he’ll need to hit for power to be valuable. He’s also not known for his defense at third base, and projects as a first baseman in the MLB. I like Murakami, but his margin of error is much lower because he’s a bit one dimensional as a masher. Since he doesn’t offer value defensively and will likely strike out a lot, he’ll have to flash 35 HR power to be worth the price he’ll command.

3. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B | 27 y.o. | Yomiuri Giants

Posting Est. November 2024

Okamoto is only a .272 career hitter in the NPB, but has consistent All Star power with at least 30 HR in six consecutive seasons for the Giants. Okamoto arguably had a career year at the plate in 2023, hitting 41 HR, 31 doubles, and posting a .278 batting average. One thing I really like about Kazuma is his contact ability. In 3,590 career plate appearances, he only has a 18.56% K rate. That number will go up in the MLB, but it’s encouraging that he is under 20% in his career. His 10.7% Career Walk rate is also pretty strong. For context, 10.7% is Matt Chapman and DJ LeMahieu territory, and would have been good for 78th percentile last year in the MLB. I’m not sure about his defense, as I’ve seen mixed reviews. However, based on the fact that he split his time at first and third last year, he may be seen more as a first baseman defensively at the Major League level.

4. Kona Takahashi, SP | 27 y.o. | Seibu Lions

Posting Est. December 2024

Takahashi has pitched very well in back-to-back seasons, with a 2.20 ERA in 2022 and a 2.21 ERA in 2023. He’s more of a command guy than a swing and miss guy, with 6.8 K/9 in his NPB career. His 0.5 HR/9 rate in the last two seasons is better than his career line, but he has struggled with keeping the ball in the park. Kona’s best hope is to keep the ball on the ground a la Marcus Stroman or Logan Webb if he is to have success in the MLB. Even if he does manage to be a ground ball machine, he’s probably a back end starter in the MLB. For comparison, Nayuki Uwasawa is a similar archetype pitcher who just signed on a Minor League deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. Time will tell if Takahashi will be able to get a nice payday through the posting system, too.