Luis Arraez: PC Mock Trades
Luis Arraez of the Miami Marlins (Jasen Vinlove/Getty Images)
Luis Arraez was 100th percentile in four categories in 2023: expected batting average, whiff %, K %, and sweet spot %. Luis is a very disciplined hitter and has uncanny hand-eye coordination. Still, he did rank in the bottom 10% in two categories: barrel % and hard hit %. He finished with an average exit velocity of 88.3, which ranks about 26th percentile in the MLB. Arraez is not a great defender at second base, and doesn’t hit for power. However, he’s so good at putting the bat on the ball that he’s a 3-3.5 fWAR player despite being a one dimensional contact hitter. Luis only walked 5.7% of the time in 2023, but he struck out even less (5.5%). He hit .438 in April last season, and hit .383 in the 1st half. Since his rookie season, he has a .326 batting average and two batting titles. Freddie Freeman is 2nd place at .315 since 2019, and then there’s another huge dropoff to Michael Brantley at .305 (congratulations on your retirement Michael). As you can see below, no one is close to Arraez in terms of K% since 2019. Arraez is at 7.5%, and the only other guy in the MLB under 10% in this time range is David Fletcher of the Angels. The Marlins have made Arraez available via trade, and teams will be calling to add an elite top of the order hitter to their lineup. Teams could potentially deploy him at 2B or 1B, and would have him for two years of club control. For context, the Marlins are going through arbitration steps with Arraez, but his salary for 2024 is projected at $11.3M by Spotrac. Let’s take a look at a few mock trades.
MLB Batting Average Leaders Since 2019 (Fangraphs)
Mock Trade 1: Blue Jays acquire 2B Luis Arraez for C Alejandro Kirk, SS Addison Berger, and 1B Spencer Horwitz
Baseball Trade Values actually graded this as a minor overpay by Toronto, but I think this is about what it would take to get an All Star like Arraez, especially coming off of a career year at the plate. The Marlins don’t really have an answer at catcher– Nick Fortes has struggled since he debuted a couple years ago. Bethancourt is a solid backup catcher, but neither guy offers the offensive or defensive stability that Kirk can provide. Similar to Arraez, Kirk has an elite K:BB ratio, but doesn’t possess much home run power. Over his MLB career, he has a 114 wRC+, which is elite for a catcher. Kirk is also an elite blocker and solid framer behind the plate, but ranks below average in throwing out runners. He’s got three years of control left, replaces some of the things Luis does offensively, and plays a premium defensive position. This makes Alejandro a great fit for Miami. The other guys going to Miami in this deal are ancillary pieces to Kirk. Addison Barger currently ranks 5th in Toronto’s system. Barger is a good athlete with experience all over the diamond, as well as some right field action in 2023. The ability to play multiple positions could create another path to the show for him, and Miami could use him as organizational depth in case Edwards and/or Brujan don’t work out. Horwitz hit .337 in AAA last year, but ultimately he’s a 26-year-old 1st baseman with only 15 MLB games under his belt. He can also play left field, and is worth taking a flier on, given his history of raking at every level he’s ever played at.
On Toronto’s side, they do lose their All Star starting catcher, but their offense improves significantly with the addition of Arraez. Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt are both losses to the Toronto offense, but acquiring Arraez would improve an already strong lineup both in terms of batting average and mitigating swing and miss. Toronto only struck out 20.9% of the time in 2023, and their two main culprits, Chapman and Belt, have left via free agency. This lineup would be tough on pitching in the AL East and give their clubs a chance to win by staying in the game and consistently putting up runs. Nominally, hitting home runs wins games, but sometimes on the practical level you do need the contact ability to win games long term. The Mariners found that out the hard way last year and recently made a sharp pivot from their swing and miss guys.
Mock Trade 2: Cubs acquire 2B Luis Arraez for CF Kevin Alcantara and 2B Michael Busch
The Cubs can flip their winnings from the Anthony Rizzo deal by selling high on Kevin Alcantara and getting a premium 2X batting title hitter in Arraez. Alcantara is blocked by Peter Crowe-Armstrong in the Cubs organization, so this makes sense for Kevin and the Cubs front office. He’s super toolsy and only 21 years old. The Marlins get a young player playing a premium position with power and speed. Scouts have been concerned with his hit tool, but he did manage to hit .286 in high A ball this past season. 2023 is a big year for him as he starts to face higher level pitching. He ranks 5th in the Cubs farm right now, while fellow prospect and recent acquisition Michael Bush ranks third. Busch is an exciting move for the Marlins because unlike Alcantara, he can step up and produce at the major league level right away in 2024. Busch isn’t really the home run prospect that Alcantara is, but he has a way higher floor. The jury is out on whether Busch can play second or third at the major league level, but he won’t be a plus defender at either. He’s likely to eventually get moved to 1B or LF eventually, perhaps once Josh Bell’s deal expires at the end of 2024. Busch currently possesses 50 grade hit and power tools, and should be able to post league average offensive production right away. If he reaches his full potential, he could flash 30-35 homer power and hit in the .270-.280 range.
This is a haul for Miami, but the Cubs are getting the right player at the right time after losing Jeimer Candelario to their division rival and potentially losing Bellinger (we’ll see). The Cubs finished 12th in the MLB in wRC+ last year with Belly and Jeimer, so it’s not unreasonable to think they’re a middle of the pack offense without making a splash. The starting rotation is fine, but it’s not really good enough to compensate for a mediocre lineup. Hoyer and the Cubs will be betting on breakout years from their young players like PCA, but they still need to acquire a premium top of the order hitter. Arraez is a two time batting title champion and the best hitter in the league by batting average since his rookie season. He’s the guy to get, and the Cubs have the farm system assets to make this deal without significantly hamstringing themselves in future seasons, making them a natural trade partner for Miami.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/
*Stats are as of 1/14/24