Marcus Stroman Ends Up in Pinstripes
Marcus Stroman, now of the New York Yankees (Charles Rex Arbogast / Associated Press)
The Yankees were able to ink Marcus Stroman for 2 years/$37M with a vesting option for 2026 (140 innings in 2025 is the trigger). Considering Lucas Giolito was able to get 2 years/$38.5M as a pillow contract, I think the Yankees were able to get Stroman at a discount relative to the remainder of the starting pitching market. Stroman will come with his warts of course, including hip and rib injuries that limited him to an 8.63 ERA in 24 innings in the second half of 2023. Marcus has also been critical of the Yankees in the past, and lacks the swing and miss feature that many front offices are looking for nowadays (22.3% whiff). Nevertheless, he brings a New York background with him, as well as AL East experience from his time in Toronto. Stroman has a reputation as a great competitor around the league, and certainly doesn’t lack passion. Steamer projects him for a 4.03 ERA in 2024 over 177 innings. This would be a huge boost for the Yankees rotation that currently has Carlos Rodon slotted as their #2 starter despite giving up over 2 HR/9.
Marcus Stroman Season Stats and 2024 Steamer Projections (Fangraphs)
This move likely pushes the Yankees out of the bidding for Burnes and Cease, as well as top free agents like Montgomery and Snell. I think the Yankees thought they had a shot with Snell, my guess is he wanted too many years. Montgomery seems to have understandably held a grudge against the Yankees for not being viewed as a playoff caliber starter before being traded by the Yankees in the Harrison Bader deal a few years ago. Unless the Yankees were prepared to trade Chase Hampton or maybe even Spencer Jones in the Cease package, Stroman was starting to look like the top alternative to the premium starters left on the market. Over the last three seasons 2021-2023, Stroman ranks 13th in the MLB with a 3.45 ERA (min 450 innings). For comparison, this is better than Cease (3.54) and Montgomery (3.48) as you can see below. When contextualizing it like this, it’s hard to believe Giolito got a better deal with Boston, even if he does throw more innings and get the swing and miss. Stroman, on the other hand, is sinker heavy and finished with a 57.4% ground ball rate (94th percentile).
2021-2023 SP ERA MLB Leaders min 450 Inn (Fangraphs)
Looking forward, I think Stroman is the right addition both from the clubhouse standpoint and from a roster fit perspective as well. The locker room element carries some risk with a personality like Stroman, but this Yankees team needs some intensity and urgency in 2024. Stro is a middle of rotation type at this point, and probably shouldn’t be projected for more than 150 innings. Still, if Stroman and Rodon are both solid this season, the starting rotation could be middle of the pack to upper middle, somewhere in the 10-15 range around the league. The Yankees rotation finished in 18th with 4.44 ERA, but they don’t have to start Severino or German this year. With the stars in the lineup and this bullpen personnel, that should be enough for this Yankees team to get to the trade deadline as a competitor in the AL East. If they can get there, the front office can adjust accordingly and make more trades to buy or sell predicated on the situation in August 2024. With this signing, the Yankees also hit around $298M in the CBT tax payroll, putting them right around the Cohen Tax (the highest bracket of the CBT luxury tax). I’d be surprised if they made any other significant signings or trades prior to camp at this point, but I also don’t think they need to make other moves at this juncture either. By hitting that $298M number, the Yankees ownership has made it clear to fans they’re ready to go all in on this club. Judge (32 yo in April) and Cole (33 yo) aren’t getting younger, and Juan Soto is a rental for 2024 at this point. The Yankees have a window to be interesting and compete for a title here. If they are going to make a run in 2024, Marcus Stroman will be a big part of it.
Grade: A-
*Stats are as of 1/22/24