The Cubs Finally Close a Deal, Imanaga to Chicago
Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs (Light Blue Sports)
The Cubs have somehow done even less than the Boston Red Sox this winter, who have taken heavy fire from their fanbase for their lack of urgency, especially after declaring they would go “full throttle” this offseason. The Cubs never made such a claim explicitly, but they spoke with their actions by paying new manager Craig Counsell a record 5 year/ $40M deal. In a bizarrely quiet winter, the Cubs have sat on their hands since poaching Counsell from their division rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers. It didn’t seem likely that they would get Ohtani or Yamamoto, but most fans figured they would bring at least one impact arm, and fans were optimistic about bringing Cody Bellinger back to Chicago. Almost two weeks into January, Jed Hoyer and the Cubs finally closed a deal, inking Japanese left hander Shota Imanaga to a deal roughly in the $15 AAV range (details still emerging). There are multiple levers and options involved, but it appears to be 2 years guaranteed for a total of $30M (I had predicted 4 years/ $50M here).
Through eight seasons in the NPB, Imanaga posted a 3.18 ERA over 1002.2 innings of work. For context, the last left handed starter to come over from Japan was Yusei Kikuchi in 2019, who produced a 2.77 in the NPB over 9 seasons and 1010.2 innings of work. Kikuchi was 28 in his MLB rookie season, and Imanaga is a few years older at 30 for his rookie campaign. While Kikuchi struggled more with command in Japan, Imanaga shares a flaw with his fellow lefty– home runs. Yusei gave up 0.7 HR/9 in Japan, and has given up an average of 1.6 HR/9 in five MLB seasons. Imanaga has given up 1.0 HR/9 in his NPB career, and figures to have major home run problems in his career with the Cubs. Shota needs to limit the damage by keeping guys off the bases, and that will help to keep runs in check. There are some things he can do to mitigate homers, but the margin is smaller in the MLB and he will most likely struggle to keep the ball in the yard. Given that Kikuchi has a 4.71 career MLB ERA (89 ERA+), it could be unrealistic to expect Imanaga to be more than a backend starter. It is worth noting Kikuchi has had good moments, even making the All Star team in 2023. However, the overall body of work would indicate he’s more of a back end starter than a mid rotation guy.
Yusei Kikuchi Career Stats (bRef)
When looking at Imanaga’s last couple seasons for the Yokohama Baystars, his K/9 and his BB rate stand out as highlights. Though carrying a 1.0 HR/9 rate in 2023, Shota had a dominant 7.25 K/BB ratio, which would have been 3rd in the MLB last year for reference. Fangraphs grades his command at 70/70, which will enable him to get outs by controlling the count and pitching rather than throwing. Fangraphs also does grade both his fastball and curveball at 40, though they’re more optimistic about the slider (55 grade). Shota knows how to mix his arsenal, and could be a mid rotation starter if he can maintain his command at the MLB level. If he does miss in the zone however, his mistakes will be hit over the fence more often than they were back in the Pacific League. How badly and how often he misses will determine if he’s a back end starter or a playoff caliber starter.
Shota Imanaga 2022-2023 (bRef)
Judging on the contract details we have so far, it sounds like front offices view Imanaga as a #4 or #5 starter rather than a mid rotation starter. The $15M AAV number resembles what guys like Sean Manaea and Michael Wacha have earned this winter, and each of those guys has their warts. Both have hovered around league average in their career (102 and 100 ERA+ for each respectively), which is probably not a bad projection for Shota. If he is average over this deal and pitches 150 innings a year or so, it will be good for Chicago and likely comes at a cheaper cost than retaining Marcus Stroman. Imanaga figures to slot at the #3 slot, behind Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon and ahead of Kyle Hendricks. The 5th spot could go to either Wicks or Assad, but we may not know until after spring. This is a rotation that was middle of the pack last year (14th with a 4.26 ERA), so they certainly needed to replace Stroman with someone who can bring similar upside. At this point, Imanaga can offer that until proven otherwise. While this is a nice signing for the Cubs, assuming the details of the contract track with what we know so far, Jed Hoyer still needs to make additions. With the loss of Jeimer and Bellinger, Hoyer needs to find a way to either bring back Belly or court Matt Chapman to Chicago. They still project for under $200M in CBT payroll, so they have more than enough space to add an impact bat for 2024.
2024 Cubs SP Depth (Fangraphs)