Painting Corners Top 25 MLB Free Agents
Cody Bellinger of the Chicaco Cubs (NBC Sports)
25) Rhys Hoskins | 31 yo | Mariners | 1 year | $10M
Hoskins has the 35 HR power, but he’s been out since the end of 2022 with a knee injury. I know some think Hoskins will get $20M offers based on his 2020-2022 production (246/.340/.491), but I doubt it. Hoskins isn’t a good 1B, and it might not be a stretch to say he’s more of a DH at this point. I like Hoskins as a comeback candidate, but I think he’ll sign for a one year deal in the $10M territory. Dipoto loves a bargain, and I like the idea of bringing in a disciplined hitter like Rhys, who ranked in the 81st percentile in chase % during the 2022 season.
24) Mitch Garver | 33 yo | Texas Rangers | 2 years | $20M
Garver is a .250 hitter with 30-35 HR power, if he plays full time. The thing is, he has never really played full time due to depth charts and injuries. He can be used sparingly for 20-30 games as a backup catcher which is valuable. but also probably contributes to some of the injury issues. The DH market will probably be Russian Roulette, and it’s almost impossible to really predict where all of these guys are going to land. Garver seems to fit in well with this clubhouse and Texas likes his ability to catch occasionally.
Mitch Garver 2021-2023 Stats (bREF)
23) Michael Lorenzen | 32 yo | Mets | 2 years | $22M
I had Lorenzen higher on this list a few months ago, but unfortunately he fell apart after the no hitter. In his two seasons as a starter, Lorezen has a 4.20 ERA, while averaging 125 innings a season. It is also concerning that the Phillies never gave him a Postseason start, but he was good when he was used sparingly as a reliever in October. I like Lorenzen for the Mets, a team that moved Verlander and Scherzer, while Carrasco is probably done after a brutal 2023. New York has Senga and Quintana, with a large dropoff after that to David Peterson. They need at least one veteran starter and Lorezen is a good fit.
22) Justin Turner | 39 yo | Guardians | 1 year | $13M
Justin Turner was solid for Boston, but they don’t really need him for 2024. He drove in 96 runs, and put up a 114 wRC+ as their everyday DH. Turner wasn’t great at 2B or 3B, he was fine at 1B in 30 games or so for Boston. I wouldn’t play him there everyday, but he could give your 1B the occasional day in the field. Cleveland had the worst DH production in the MLB and I love the idea of them bringing in Turner as a one year rental. If 2024 does go south, you can flip Turner at the trade deadline as a veteran DH to help your club down the stretch.
21) Jung Ho Lee | 25 years old | Guardians | 4 years | $48M
Lee is a career .340/.407/.491 career hitter in the KBO, but is coming off of an ankle injury. Lee is young, but unproven in the Major leagues both as a center fielder and as a hitter. I am expecting a .280 hitter with marginal power who can play a solid centerfield. I thought about a player comp and I think Adam Eaton and Ender Inciarte are decent comparisons as two above average center fielders who run the bases well without prodigious base stealing ability. Both of these guys also had a hit tool, with Eaton hit .276 over his career, and Inciarte hitting .280 in his nine MLB seasons. I think there could be years where Lee flirts with or exceeds .300, while playing a solid center field. The main draw here is the up the middle defensive process, and the hit tool. I like the Brewers fit for Lee, but I like the Guardians even more. Lee paired with Kwan at the top of the lineup would mean way more opportunities for RBIs in the middle of the order, and Myles Straw struggled mightily in 2023. He was not really an everyday player (great base runner and center fielder), but was more of a stopgap until Cleveland was able to find their guy. I think Lee is their guy and I’m expecting a four or five year deal.
20) Seth Lugo | 34 yo | Cardinals | 2 years | $24M
The conversion to a starter really worked out for Seth Lugo when he put up a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts after being utilized predominantly as a reliever for the past several years. His 4.48 xERA does show good fortune for Lugo, but he was able to maintain quality BB and K numbers, with a strong 17.2 K-BB%. Lugo is a nice middle of the rotation starter who could be worth a few wins, but simultaneously won’t break the bank. This is a good fit for a St. Louis team that needs innings, but probably doesn’t plan on spending too much money this offseason.
19) Shota Imanaga | 30 yo | Diamondbacks | 4 years | $50M
Imanaga is a tier below lefties like Monty and Snell since he doesn’t have the MLB track record. His stuff is really good and everyone was able to see it on the world stage during the WBC. His K/9 is way up per his usual numbers at 10.6K/9, but his 1.0 HR/9 rate is a concern certainly. Most Japanese stars who have made the move to the US had much lower HR rates in the NPB, and a better track record in keeping the ball in the yard. Yu Darvish, for example, had a .4 HR/9 rate in the NPB, less than half the homers Imanaga has been yielding. I think Shota will be successful in the show, but more as a back end starter type than a front end starter. The Snakes really need a 4th starter, as evidenced by this past October. In particular, they need a lefty star, given that Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt are righties. Imanaga would fit in nicely with the Dbacks, and Chase Field actually doesn’t have a bad park factor for homers, which is a positive factor for Shota.
18) Jorge Soler | 32 yo | Colorado Rockies | 2 years | 28M
If Soler stays healthy and hits 35 home runs, he’s a two fWAR player. If not, he’s basically useless due to his lack of defensive, baserunning, or contact ability. He’s one dimensional, but the 35 HR power is nice to have when you need it. I expect him to get a decent 1-2 year deal, based on his power numbers this year, but he really only hits lefties. In fact, Soler was 2nd best in the National League against lefties this year, posting .277/.393/.688 and hitting 14 HR in only 135 AB. If you need a punch in your lineup against lefties in 2024, Soler is your guy. The Rockies had the worst production in the MLB against LHP in 2023, with a 73 wRC+ as a team. It’s a nice coincidence that Charlie Blackmon’s contact is up, paving the way for Soler.
Jorge Soler 2023 Batting Splits (bRef)
17) Michael Wacha | 32 yo | Royals | 2 years | $28M
Wacha has been productive the last few seasons, but hasn’t pitched more than 134 innings since 2017. Wacha has a 3.84 ERA over the last three years, and is 25-6 over the last two years pitching for Boston and San Diego. Wacha can be a nice 3rd starter, but unfortunately you can’t really expect him to pitch a full season. His upside is high though, which makes him a nice pickup for a non contending team. If he does pitch well, he becomes a nice commodity at the trade deadline. Enter the KC Royals, who badly need veteran starting pitching and are unlikely to be competitive in 2024 or 2025.
16) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 30 yo | Diamondbacks | 3 years | $45M
Lourdes Gurriel is probably a below average left fielder more often than not. Defensive metric, especially UZR, loved him this year. Over his career, he’s -15 OAA in LF, with a 1.4 UZR/150. bRef is way kinder than Fangraphs, with an 18 Rdrs over Gurriel’s career in left field. Even if he is ok in left field, that’s more than JD, Soler, and others in the market can say. Though Gurriel doesn’t have 30 HR power, he’s a .279 career hitter with 20-25 HR power. That’s good for a career 115 wRC+, or 15% above average offensive production. He’s also young, which is why I’m projecting a multi-year deal for him, despite not really being a brand name or having a big season on his resume. Gurriel Jr. has really found a home in Arizona, and he fits this club well. It’s possible a team like the Mariners replace Teoscar with Gurriel Jr. or a young club like the Nationals that need some offense from a veteran big league hitter, but the most likely scenario is Guirrel Jr. staying in Arizona.
15) JD Martinez | 36 yo | Marlins | 1 year | $15M
JD is strictly a DH at this point, but he’s a really good one. After putting up 33 HR and 103 RBI in a good bounceback season for the Dodgers, JD enters the market with some nice green flags. He’s 98th percentile in exit velo, barrel % and hard hit % while finishing 97th percentile in sweet spot %. JD is a superb professional hitter who is still crushing the ball, but there are some warts too. For one, he’s a 36 year old DH, but he also is in the bottom 10% of the league in whiff % and k %. His chase % is 28th percentile as well, indicating he’s swinging at pitches he hasn’t in the past, which could certainly be cause for concern. He’s still probably the best DH on the market after Shohei, and should be able to secure a high AAV for a one year or two year deal. JD is also a net positive guy in the clubhouse, which certainly would be useful to a young team that needs a veteran hitter. To me, JD would be a great fit for the Seattle Mariners if not for their persistent strikeout problems. I don’t see them bringing another guy who is struggling with k’s and whiffs. For this season, I like JD on a one year deal to replace Jorge Soler in Miami.
JD Martinez 2023 (Baseball Savant)
14) Kevin Kiermaier | 34 yo | Giants | 2 years | $32M
KK is a really fun player to watch and has generally been underrated for most of his career. 2021-2023, KK only played an average of 105 games, hitting .254 with precisely average offensive production (100 wRC+) over this stretch. Despite only playing in 105 games a year, Kiermaier has averaged 2.8 bWAR during this interval, largely due to his 3X GG and Platinum level defense in center field. He’s so good in center, I’d sign him to play there even if he couldn’t hit, but he has held his own as a hitter. His main two caveats are durability and age, but KK is still playing at high level. I really like his fit for the Giants, who need a true center fielder with the way Matos has struggled. If Matos turns it around, they can move KK to a corner or deal him after this season.
13) Teoscar Hernandez | 31 yo | Brewers | 2 years | $34M
Teoscar has an .803 OPS and 273/.322/.481 line in the last three seasons. He’s still flashing 30 HR power, and his expected wOBA is .336, 19 points higher than his actual .317 mark at pitcher friendly T-Mobile park. Hernandez will strike out 170 or 180 times a year, but he’s going to give a pop in the middle of the lineup that many clubs are looking for. Another important point is that he is still playable in right field. He’s not great in right, but he’s certainly passable enough to justify the bat. This allows teams the versatility to use the DH slot on another bat. Teo is a 3 bWAR right fielder, and I like his fit for the Brewers, who have no right fielder and need some offensive protection for Christian Yelich.
12) Jeimer Candelario | 30 yo | Cubs | 3 years | $51M
Jeimer will get paid more than Teoscar and other guys because he can play 3B and shows decent range. There is concern about his arm for good reason. Jeimer’s arm strength is in the 22nd percentile, with average velocity of 80.7 MPH. He did finish above average in range however, and I think there is some hope he could be moved to 2B. If not, he’ll be relegated to 1B or LF. Candy has a .753 OPS from 2021-2023, with a 109 OPS+ over that three year stretch. He’s one of the more complete position players in this market behind Chapman and Bellinger. If the Mets don’t sign Chapman, I could see Jeimer going there, but ultimately, I do see him going back to Chicago on a three year deal.
11) Eduardo Rodriguez | 31 yo | Orioles | 4 years | $68M
Eduardo is a #3 starter for a contender and is arguably coming off a career season in Detroit, with a 3.30 over 26 starts. However, in his last three seasons, Rodriguez has averaged only 134 innings, and has a 4.04 ERA from 2021-2023. He doesn’t have the multi-year dominance of Sonny Gray or the durability of Aaron Nola. I still like E-Rod, but I think he’s a tier below Snell, Monty, and Nola. I see Baltimore as a good fit, an organization that needs a veteran lefty, but may not want to pay the price for someone like Monty or Snell with command. I could also see him going to the Diamondbacks, they desperately need a lefty starter.
10) Josh Hader | 29 yo | Rangers | 4 years | $72M
Hader had a ridiculous 1.23 ERA in 2021, before posting a terrible 5.22 ERA in 2022. This season, prime Hader was back with a 1.29 ERA just in time for the free agent market. Over these three seasons, Hader has averaged 59 appearances, 34 saves and a 2.45 ERA. We’ve seen several 7th and 8th inning relievers get deals for $8M/ $9M over two or three years, like the Braves extension of Joe Jimenez for 3/$26M. Raisel Iglesias got 4/$58M two years ago, and Hader is much better. I expect something in the range of 4 years/ $80M. The Texas Rangers need a dominant lefty and they also need a closer. The bullpen was able to get it done this October, but it clearly struggled and things could have easily gone south in more games than one. Hader solidifies this pen and gives the Rangers length for a roster that was seen as their weakness all season.
Josh Hader 2023 (Baseball Savant)
9) Sonny Gray | 34 yo | Braves | 2 years | $45M
Sonny is coming off the 2nd best year of his career, with a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings in a time when few throw 180 innings anymore. The concern with Gray is pretty simple, his age. He’s had a few so-so years in the past, but he has a 3.30 ERA over the last three seasons. You’re not gonna give a 34 year old starter more than three or four years, but he had a better 2023 than most of the other guys on this list. I like the idea of a two year or three year deal with a high AAV for Sonny. Given the depth of the starting pitching market, he may ultimately get offers for two years with club options. I like the Atlanta Braves to make a splash here for two years, $45M. This gives the Braves a reliable starter behind Strider and Fried, and makes sense for a veteran like Sonny, who likely has interest in playing for a team that can make a deep Postseason run.
8) Marcus Stroman | 33 yo | Reds | 3 years | $60M
Stro is known for his confidence and outspoken personality, but he’s also known for results. He’s probably better than Aaron Nola, but he’s only averaged five and a third innings per start over his last three years. He has stayed somewhat durable with an average of 28 starts, but he leaves games early, taxing the bullpen. Still, he has a 3.45 ERA from 2021-2023, and is coming off of an All Star season. He’s not going to get ace/ #1 starter money, but teams will likely look at him as a solid #2 starter. He’s already rejected his player option for $21M, so he is officially on the market. I think most Reds recognize that they need a legit veteran starter to pair with Hunter Greene, and they are familiar with Stroman as a division rival. I’d love to see Nick Krall open the pocket book and bring in a brand name starter to show this clubhouse they’re serious about winning games and getting to the playoffs. Marcus’s small frame and September would make me skeptical to offer more than three years, but I like him alot for the three years with an AAV of $20M or so.
7) Matt Chapman | 31 yo | Mets | 5 years | $120M
Chapman has nice pop but also has high strikeout totals and low contact rates, as his 162 game average over the last four seasons is .226 with 27 HR and 76 RBI, with 198 strikeouts. In another market or another year, Matt probably would not be the top infielder available. Since he is, he is going to get paid despite his warts, especially given his defensive ability. He’s a 3X GG, 2X Platinum Glove, and still plays 3B at a good if not elite level. The combo of power and defense at 3B will put him in a great position to demand both AAV and years. Though the contact numbers are scary, his advanced power numbers are awesome, 17.1 barrel %, 93.4 exit velocity, and 56.4 hard hit %. All these are A+ metric, Chapman hits the stuffing out of the ball. The Mets need a consistent performer opposite Pete Alonso in the infield with strong defense and 30 HR power. Chapman gives you both of these, and he’s really the only guy who provides those two things at 3B in this year’s market.
6) Cody Bellinger | 28 yo | Yankees | 3 years | $90M
The story with Bellinger is Jekyll and Hyde. .193/.256/.355 in 2021-2022, before bursting on the scene with Chicago with a 4.1 fWAR season. Cody will get paid for a much different reason than Chapman, youth. He is two years younger than Chapman, which is more significant than it sounds. Those are two prime years that the signing club gets access to, which drastically drives up the price tag, even for an inconsistent player. I’m glad Bellinger got his flowers, winning the NL comeback player of the year award. When he’s right, he can do it all. He can steal 20 bags, hit 30 homers, play centerfield or first, and hit .300. There was some good luck involved, as he had a .331 xwOBA compared to a .370 wOBA. The other issue is he actually hasn’t hit the ball that hard, as demonstrated by 10th percentile hard hit %, 22nd percentile exit velo %, 27th percentile barrel % in 2023.
Still, he’s an MVP who is coming off a really solid season. The team that brings him will be a club without a center fielder and/or need a left handed bat. With the departure of Harrison Bader, the Yankees fit both of their criteria and Bellinger seems like a hand to glove fit for them. The Yankees don’t seem to want to be above the CBT, but it’s hard to imagine them preventing it unless they are fine with not being competitive. I do expect Cashman to offer dollars over years, largely due to Bellinger inconsistencies. This is a hedge for New York, and a chance for Bellinger to get paid again at 31, an age when many guys hit the market for the first time.
5) Aaron Nola | 31 yo | Phillies | 5 years | $125M
If Nola hadn’t returned to form for the Postseason, you would have seen him ranking in the 8-9 range for me. However, he was great in four October starts, going 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA for the Phillies. Nola also has very strong durability, and teams need innings more than ever the way pitchers are getting hurt. Sans the 2020 COVID season, Nola has started 30 games for five consecutive years and you’d be hard pressed to find many others who have done that. Nola was bad in 2021, really good in 2022 and then bad again in 2023. I love a workhorse, but which version of Nola will his next team get? To me, the fact that he’s thrown 180 innings for five consecutive full seasons paired with his October performance would be enough for me to pay him and I assume front offices feel the same. I could see Nola going to a few different teams, such as the Jays, Giants, or Orioles. Ultimately, I think Dombrowski makes Aaron a priority and brings him back to start behind Zack Wheeler for another five years.
4) Blake Snell | 31 yo | Twins | 5 years | $130M
Blake is about to be 2-2 in Cy Young Awards for each 30 start season he has had. This illustrates his dominance, but also his lack of durability. His command and control issues lead to high pitch counts, and some innings you are certainly holding your nose. Many will point to his peripherals such as his 3.77 xERA, but the most important stat is the 2.25 ERA. This is a results based game, and you can’t help but be drawn to a lefty with his kind of dominance. He’s less reliable than Nola, Gray, or Montgomery, but he has a higher ceiling than any of the three. The Twins have no lefties right now in their rotation, and I don’t see them pulling up to spring training without E-Rod, Monty, or Snell.
3) Jordan Montgomery | 31 yo | Dodgers | 6 years | $140M
Monty has been exceptionally durable since his Tommy John Surgery back in June 2018, starting at least 30 games in each of the last three seasons. He was going to get paid based on his durability, but his October performance (3-1 with a 2.90 ERA) has put him in the top tier of the starting pitching market. Some clubs will value Nola or Snell higher based on ceiling, but I have Montgomery higher based on his durability and consistency. Montgomery and Eovaldi were the two arms that carried the Texas Rangers pitching staff all the way to a championship. The Dodgers have lost Urias and Kershaw, their two lefties in the rotation. They need to replace at least one, and I think Monty is the right fit behind Buehler and Miller.
Jordan Montgomery Pitching Stats 2021-2023 (bRef)
2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 25 yo | Red Sox | 8 years | $240M
Yamamoto has raised his stock since the last time we spoke about him months ago. He went 16-6 with a 1.21 ERA this year before putting up a few stud performances in the playoffs, including a complete game start giving up one run and striking out 14 this morning in Game 6 of the Japan Series for the Orix Buffaloes. Yoshinubu has been amazing in the last few seasons and I’m really excited to see him pitch in the best league in the world. I firmly believe he is a top 10 pitcher worldwide, and most front offices likely agree. He’s got a bull market right now, it will be a frenzy to sign him. For the similar reasons I don’t think Boston will get Ohtani, I do believe they have their eyes set on Yamamoto. Craig Breslow hammered home the need for pitching in his presser, and an ace in front of Bello and company would change the entire tone of this organization. Things haven’t felt right since the Mookie Betts trade and this needs to be a big offseason for Boston.
1) Shohei Ohtani | 29 yo | Dodgers | 10 years | $500M with escalators/incentives
I know pretty much every fan with a payroll over $150M sees Ohtani in their club’s uniform. Unfortunately, he can only sign with one team and front offices see red flags simultaneously with the stardom, MVP production, and massive ticket/merch sales. Ohtani may only pitch two or three more years, and even that may be optimistic. It is simply not a realistic expectation for him to pitch past 2027. If he does, that would be a plus on top of the 140-150 OPS+ production he can bring as a DH or corner outfielder if he does stop pitching. Ohtani has a ton of red on his baseball savant, including being #1 in the MLB in barrel %. If you’re into counting stats, Shohei is 4th in the MLB with 124 HR in the last three seasons while pitching every six days.
I think clubs will look at Ohtani as a power lefty bat first, starting pitcher second. To me, the Red Sox are unlikely to sign Ohtani in Breslow’s first offseason running the ops department in Boston. I don’t see the Yankees paying him either, with the salaries they are already paying to Stanton, Judge, Rodon, and Cole. Texas is unlikely for similar reasons to Boston, as they really need pitching more than they need any kind of addition to their lineup. The Dodgers seem like a huge favorite to get him based on pockets and fit, with the Jays, Cubs, Mariners, and Mets lagging behind.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2023/10/24/23928402/breaking-down-offseason-targets-shota-imanaga
https://theathletic.com/4987045/2023/11/02/mlb-free-agents-ranking-ohtani-bellinger/
https://theathletic.com/5008102/2023/10/31/mlb-free-agents-2023-contract-team-predictions/
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
*Stats are as of 11/4/2023