The Why Behind Declining World Series Ratings
2023 World Series (MLB.com)
I’m sure the reader has heard about declining World Series Ratings, with an adjacent complaint of the matchup between the Rangers and the Diamondbacks. Oftentimes, I think the age of statistics and speed has coaxed many, including myself, to consider quantitative and qualitative data with less context than we really need to understand the meaning of the observation or data. The graphic below is one of many that has gone viral in baseball circles, but there are pieces of important context missing from this chart. Today, I’ll give you a couple things to consider that could give you peace of mind that baseball is in fine shape.
Brandon Pfaadt of the Arizona Diamondbacks
World Series Views By Year (Graphic-FOS Tuned In)
First, consider the ratings of other sports, such as the NBA. Game 7 in the 1998 NBA Finals averaged over 29M viewers, which is more than three times the viewership of the 2021 NBA finals. In 2021, the highest viewed game of the Bucks/Suns matchup was Game 6, which drew over 12.52 viewers. The series, as a whole however, only drew an average of 9.91M viewers. In 2020, when everyone was sitting at home, the Lakers/Heat Finals only drew an average of 7.45M viewers. For comparison, Bulls vs Jazz Game 6 in 1998 drew 35.89M viewers, in one game! When comparing the 2017 NBA Finals to 2022 NBA Finals, there is a 42.88% drop in viewership from 20.38M to 11.64M.
NBA Finals Ratings and TV Views (Wikipedia)
When comparing the 2017 World Series (Astros/Dodgers) to this year, ratings are down about 55% from 18.9M to 8.5M views. Now the Rangers - DBacks World Series may not be the most interesting matchup from a general nationwide perspective, but when you compare 2017 WS to the 2022 WS ratings, the World Series is only down about 38% to 11.7M views. Also, it isn’t just the NBA finals or the World Series. Cable television is declining, period. Legacy Media and TV Networks are what newspapers were 20 years ago, a dying industry and maybe a stock to short. We all know younger generations are simply not watching television the same way their parents and grandparents do and did, including myself. Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball need to figure out how to reach young audiences, but so does everyone else.
World Series Ratings vs Top TV Show Ratings 1984-2018 (Fangraphs)
But what about the NFL?
Yes, the NFL has managed to keep SB ratings afloat. However, I think this has more to do with the Super Bowl being a pop culture event than anything else. Think about what your family and friends do for the Super Bowl. Can your folks name five players in the game? Probably not many, but I would contend that a higher percentage of fans watching the World Series and NBA Finals can name at least a few players. This is for the simple reason that there isn’t a national party for the World Series or the NBA finals. It certainly aids the NFL ratings that the Super Bowl is one game and generally features an A-list artist, but it's become such a phenomenon that the Superbowl will beat ratings for a seven game World Series or a seven game NBA finals series.
A second point is that 2023 was a brief reprieve from declining ratings over a longer period of time. They certainly haven’t dropped 40% or 50% like the NBA and MLB, but the Super Bowl crested at least 108 Million views every Super Bowl from XLV (2011) to LI (2017). Since Super Bowl LI, views have dropped to 8 digits three times and they’ve only gotten back to that 108 Million number once since 2017. It will be interesting to see how LVIII does in terms of view and ratings, can you keep views in the 110M territory, or will they fall below 100 Million again?
Super Bowl Ratings and TV Views (Wikipedia)
MLB Attendance is Up 9%
I attribute the 9% rise to a few rules, but the most important one is the pitch clock. This one is a big win for Rob Manfred overall, though there is some concern for increased injury among pitchers. The new playoff format also plays a role, as there are more teams competing for longer in the season. Since the playoffs are expanded, there are less teams selling and tanking at the deadline. This goes a long way toward league parity, while also keeping star players on their original teams a bit longer, and encouraging teams to go for it rather than sell their roster for parts.
A 9% bump is no small feat, especially when it’s a league wide statistic. To me, this a green flag, and a positive indicator that Major League Baseball is succeeding in drawing in new fans, while also getting many boomerang fans who had lost interest in years prior.
Jon Heyman (X Post)
According to the recent Forbes article from early October by Maury Brown, ratings for MLB regional ratings are up about 7% overall. Most teams saw increases, but some had major increases. The Texas Rangers saw an increase of 98.7% in their regional rating from .71 to 1.41. Small market clubs like the Pirates, Orioles, and Reds saw massive jumps of over 50% growth as well. These two statistics at least counter the declining World Series ratings for Cable TV. In fact, I feel optimistic right now about where baseball is at business, brand, and game. I am still not crazy about the local TV blackout on MLB TV, and I would be a proponent of a system where MLB takes it all over. It would certainly be easier for the fans, even if we have to pay marginally more for it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_television_ratings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Finals_television_ratings
*Stats are as of 11/1/23