Four Destinations for Juan Soto
Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres (AP Photo)
If AJ Preller opts to move Soto, which I think is quite possible, it will likely be to an American League team. It is even more likely, obviously, that Preller doesn’t trade within the division and for that reason, I would rule out the Dodgers and the Giants. There are a few other parameters for a Juan Soto suitor, including payroll capacity. Since Juan Soto is only under contract for 2024, the team that trades for him needs to have a plan and a shot to sign him long term. Soto famously rejected a massive 14-year, $440 million extension offer from the Washington Nationals. He’ll probably be looking for $500 million plus. This will likely box out small market teams, such as the Reds and the Rays. A third factor is the team’s competitive window, as the chances of a rebuilding team acquiring Soto is about zero. This eliminates clubs like the Angels and the White Sox. Finally, a fourth variable is fit and opportunity given the roster structure. Soto can technically play left field or right field, but his range is 3rd percentile, which is atrociously bad. His arm value is 81st percentile according to Baseball Savant, which certainly helps to buoy his otherwise eyesore defense. A club looking to acquire him will need a left handed bat at the top of the lineup and simultaneously has an open spot in right field or left field. This could eliminate a team like the Astros, who have Kyle Tucker and Chas McCormick manning the corners, with Yordan as an everyday DH. This whittles the candidates down to a handful of teams that I could see trading for Soto.
Juan Soto Fielding Rankings (Baseball Savant)
4) Boston Red Sox
Boston is highly unlikely to retain Alex Verdugo for the 2024 season. There was some conflict with organization personnel, as well as effort and punctuality concerns. Verdugo also used the past tense in his statement at the end of the season, seemingly indicating he also believes he’ll be traded by opening day. Though Boston does have at least five lefties in their starting lineup, Verdugo is one of them and Soto could theoretically take his place in right field. If not, Soto can occupy the left field and Boston can slide Masa Yoshida to DH. Neither Yoshida nor Soto can cover any ground, but Soto at least has a decent arm, while Yoshida doesn’t have range or a strong arm. Boston’s offense was 11th in wOBA with a .324 mark, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see new POBO Craig Breslow make a splash by turning this into a top five offense. The Red Sox also don’t walk enough, with a 7.9% BB rate, good for 12th in the AL. Juan Soto, on the other hand, ranks in the 100% percentile in BB rate and has led the National League in walks three years in a row. Boston could certainly use a .400 OBP in front of Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. Soto has similar power to Raffy but walks as much and his baseball savant looks like a videogame (including 99th percentile in chase % and hard hit %. .
Juan Soto Hitting Ranks (Baseball Savant)
3) New York Mets
The New York Mets DH production in 2023 was .217/.309/.391, a stat line resembling a September callup or role player more than an everyday DH. This DH by committee included Mark Vientos, who hit .210/.258/.378 last season as a DH, and Dan Vogelbach. The main two guys who played left field for the Mets in 2023, Canha and Pham, were both dealt at the trade deadline. The Mets and Steve Cohen are one of the more obvious potential customers for a Padres team looking to get a nice package for Juan Soto. The question here is, do the Mets have any worthwhile prospects they’re willing to part with? It’s hard to imagine them parting with Acuna or Gilbert, since they just acquired both a few months ago. However, it may be worth it to net a star like Soto, especially if they can extend him.
2023 Mets Individual DH Production (FanGraphs)
2) Seattle Mariners
Every Mariners fan heard Jerry Dipoto’s 54% speech, and most immediately demanded more from their franchise. This is fair enough, as no one wants to hear that their head of baseball operations just wants to win 88 games every year. The bottom line is Seattle needs an impact bat to put them over the top in the AL West, against the rival Astros and Rangers. The Mariners DH production was fourth worst in the league ( .211/.288/.398) and easily the worst among teams with 80+ wins. Their production in the corners this year was lacking as well, and now Teoscar is a free agent. The Mariners also had the second highest K rate in MLB (25.9%), thanks in no small part to Teo. The Mariners need an impact bat who can play LF or DH, but most importantly brings the 160 wRC+ production that Soto and few others can provide. Soto only strikes out at about a 17% clip over his career, and brings a 30-35 HR punch that can replace the power of Teoscar Hernandez. The batting order could show as 1. JP, 2. Julio, 3. Soto, 4. Cal. What Mariners fan wouldn’t want this order? Dipoto has the chips to acquire Soto, so it’s a question of whether or not he’s willing to be the highest bidder. He is a GM that trades his way to a roster, and doesn’t sign many impact free agents, so I wouldn’t rule Seattle out as a destination.
Mariners Projected 2024 Lineup (Roster Resource)
1) New York Yankees
The Yankees ranked 27th with a .304 team OBP in 2023, so Soto is an obvious fit in that sense with his perennial .400+ OBP. Giancarlo is their regular DH, but the Yankees have holes in their outfield, with Bader leaving and Jasson Dominguez’s Tommy John surgery. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees outfield ranked dead last in the MLB with a .293 OBP, despite having Aaron Judge! , or two to three solid hitters. As you can see in the Yankees chart below, any outfielder other than Judge with at least 100 PA posted an OBP under .320. From a market perspective, the Yankees also haven’t brought in a super star hitter in years, maybe since Alex Rodriguez? A brand like Soto would pair well with the other Yankee stars, Judge and Gerrit Cole. ZIPS projects Soto’s 2024 OBP at .428, and Yankee stadium is designed for left handed hitters. Cashman has received much criticism for not bringing in enough left handed hitters, and it’s deserved. The Yankees need to acquire one of the three stars currently available: Ohtani, Soto, or Bellinger. Ohtani doesn’t really fit with Stanton at DH, leaving Cody and Juan. I could see either in a Yankee uniform.
2023 Yankees OF Individual Batting Stats (FanGraphs)
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
*Stats are as of 10/29/23