Time to Add Some Pitching in Atlanta

Sonny Gray of the Minnesota Twins *(MLB.com)*

The Atlanta Braves were the best team in baseball in 2023 by a good margin. Yet, their starting rotation had huge gaps due to both injuries and poor performance. The Braves had an early exit in October. Charlie Morton had a sprained finger, Max Fried was coming back from a blister hiatus, and Ben Elder was regressing back his projected performance at the worst time. The Braves were said to be in on the starting pitching market several months ago at the trade deadline, but ultimately didn’t add anybody. By October, Kyle Wright had shoulder surgery, Max Fried had blister issues, and Charlie Morton had a sprained finger. Atlanta’s starting rotation was fine at the beginning of the season, but hobbled to the end with a 5.10 ERA after the All Star Break. Notably, the Braves ace Spencer Strider had a 4.39 ERA in the 2nd H, but had two solid Postseason starts.

Now, the starting pitching can’t be completely blamed for the Braves early Postseason exit. There is some culpability on the part of the Braves offense, who posted a collective 44 wRC+ and hit .186 with virtually no power. I understand the variance of what could happen in four games, but this is just about the worst version of the Braves offense and it was in a big moment against their division rival, the Phillies, in the Division Series. The major difference is that the Braves offense is normally the best in baseball, while their starting rotation struggles to stay in the middle of the pack.

Their rotation definitely needs at least one impact arm, maybe two. Braves POBO Alex Anthopoulos mentioned to the media that the Braves will be increasing payroll, and I expect them to add other pieces, such as a left fielder and some bullpen pieces, in addition to one or two starters. I don’t expect Atlanta to be a final suitor on the top arm available, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but I expect them to meet with several tiers in the 2nd or 3rd tier. Here are a few free agents that could fit the 3rd or 4th starter job opening on the best team in baseball right now.

Sonny Gray | 34 yo

Projected deal: 2 years | $45M

I projected Sonny to the Braves for a few reasons. One, Sonny is in his mid thirties and likely should be viewed more as a 2nd or 3rd starter on a contending team than an ace. He projects well behind Strider and Fried as the #3 starter. Sonny is one of the best pitchers on the market, but also has one of the highest chances of regression as an older pitcher coming off of an All Star season. Gray’s season was also buoyed by a 0.4 HR/9 rate, which is not sustainable in the major leagues. His 2.79 ERA in 2023 is unlikely to be repeated, but Sonny is still projected for a solid 3.83 ERA by Steamer. Gray doesn’t throw hard, but he keeps the ball in the park pretty well and prevents big innings. From 2021-2023, he had a 3.30 ERA with a 0.8 HR/9 rate in 439 cumulative innings of work. In 2023, Sonny finished with a 48% groundball rate, which was good for 77th percentile in the MLB.

Trevor Bauer | 33 yo

Projected deal: 1 year | $10M

It seems likely that Trevor Bauer will be back in the major leagues in 2024. In his campaign with the Yokohama Baystars, Bauer went 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA, including a 9-2 record with a 1.97 ERA in his last 15 starts. According to Jon Heyman, his fastball has ticked up to 99.3 MPH max. Trevor won the Covid Cy Young award back in 2020, and has an ERA title as well. After a solid year abroad, Bauer will likely be looking at a prove it deal before signing a lucrative contract if he pitches well. The Braves may not ultimately want to deal with the PR situation here, but the fit makes sense from a roster structure/ baseball operations perspective. The Braves get a 3rd starter in front of Ben Elder and Charlie Morton, while Bauer gets a chance to prove his form on a championship contender. One area of concern back in 2021, was barrel rate and hard hit rate (see below). Bauer was in the bottom quarter of pitchers in ground balls, hard hit %, and barrel %, while ranking high in whiff % and k %. Will the barrel and hard hit issues persist in 2024? There is definitely risk in this signing, largely because of the hard hit numbers, but also his performance in Japan. The 1.97 ERA in his last 15 starts is encouraging, but you’d expect a Cy Young award winner to dominate in the NPB. For context, Yamamoto had a 1.21 ERA for the Buffaloes this year, less than half of Bauer’s season ERA.

Michael Wacha | 32 yo

Projected deal: 2 years | $32M

If you’re looking only at Wacha’s ERA the last few seasons, you might wonder how he isn’t being evaluated like a frontline starter. Wacha is 25-6 with a 3.27 over his last two seasons, but has only averaged 131 innings in that timeframe. Also notable, Wacha struggled from 2020-2021, with a 5.39 ERA over 158.2 innings of work. Michae’s 134 innings in 2023 were his most since 2017, so it’s probably not reasonable to expect more than 130 innings a season from him. To me, this is what really projects him more as a mid rotation starter, even if he is giving you an ERA in the mid 3’s. Wacha’s offspeed has a 98th percentile run value in 2023, demonstrating that Wacha relies heavily on his offspeed to succeed. Like Sonny Gray, Wacha doesn’t throw hard, with a 92 MPH average fastball velocity. Despite not being a power pitcher, Wacha has found success by avoiding hard contact, ranking in the 75th percentile with a 35.5. Hard hit %. If he were to sign in Atlanta, the staff would be: Strider, Fried, Wacha, Morton, Elder but you could make the argument Morton is the #3 and Wacha is the #4.