Debunking the Myth of Cody Bellinger's Comeback

By all accounts, Cody Bellinger had an odds defying 2023, hitting .307 and driving in 97 runs, while also playing solid defense in both centerfield and first base. The versatility of Bellinger from a defensive perspective certainly raises his value, as does his combination of hit, speed, and power tools. He is the closest thing to a 5 tool player that most teams have an opportunity to acquire this offseason. For example, as much of a star as Juan Soto is, he is not at risk of anyone mistaking him for a 5 tool player. He can barely play left field, and he doesn’t run very well either. However, one major factor that someone like Juan Soto has over Bellinger is consistent production. Prior to 2023, Cody actually hit .203/.272/.376 since his 2019 MVP season and in short, had been awful. He produced a cumulative total of 1 bWAR in those 3 seasons, while racking up 4.4 bWAR in 2023 alone comparatively. I believe Bellinger was the major reason for the Cubs resurgence this season, and I don’t think Chicago would have found themselves buying at the trade deadline or finishing with 83 wins if not for Bellinger. Even still, teams should be wary of being the top bidder for his services, especially long term.

Cody Bellinger 2020-2022 Batting Stats *(bRef)*

Looking at Bellinger’s surface and performative stats over the last few seasons really show his ceiling (especially 2019), but it also shows the nature of the game and how brutal injuries and slumps can be. Bellinger’s inconsistencies and injuries have cost him Hall of Fame possibilities, awards, and a massive payday. Evenstill, in this seller’s market, Bellinger is not only the best outfielder available, he’s the best full time position player on the free agent market. When you consider the number of suitors he’ll likely have, it’s not that hard to imagine him getting $200M. I’ve both heard and read that Cody has found his 2019 MVP form again, and I can see why some folks say that when looking at the power numbers, the defense, and the .307 batting average. When you look at his advanced metric on his swing and hard hit numbers, it would appear some of this comeback is a mirage. Take, for example, that Bellinger ranked in the 10th percentile with a 31.4% mark, while also finishing with a 6.1% barrel and 87.9 MPH average exit velo. Both of these stats rank in the bottom 30% of the league. On a more minor level, he also chases quite a bit and doesn’t walk that much.

Comparing Bellinger’s MVP season in 2019 to 2023 (below), all of Bellinger’s 2019 expected stats are better by a country mile. His xBA and xSLG were 99th percentile, while his wOBA was 98th percentile. In 2023, Bellinger’s expected batting average was only .270 and his expected slugging was only .437. His expected wOBA was 39 points lower than his performative wOBA (370). Another major difference is Cody’s walk rate. In 2019, he walked a 14.4% clip, and only walked 7.2% of the time in 2023. His barrel rate last season is less than half what it was back in 2019. Bellinger is still a 5 tool player who has youth and defensive ability on his side. He has a ton of value to any major league team, and I can see him putting up a few more 4-5 WAR seasons. Make no mistake, the 2023 version of Bellinger does not stack up to the MVP one.