Grading the Giants-Mariners Deal
Robbie Ray, now of the San Francisco Giants (Sports Illustrated)
Seattle Mariners traded LHP Robbie Ray to San Francisco Giants for RF Mitch Haniger, RHP Anthony DeSclafani and cash.
According to Andrew Baggarly, the Giants are sending $3M to make this deal cash neutral. It’s a simple case of fit and need for each club, as the Mariners need a bat, but don't necessarily want to pay for one. The Giants are in a similar position, looking for upside in the starting rotation, but likely want to avoid paying $20M a year for another mid rotation starter. Since this is a cash neutral deal, we’ll be able to grade each club for simply whether or not this makes the club better for 2024, as well as the life of each contract.
Giants: B
Robbie Ray is coming off of Tommy John surgery from May 2023, which theoretically puts his return in the July-August range, around the All Star Break. Technically, Robbie could opt out of 2 years/ $50M after 2024, but it seems to be on the wrong side of a 10% chance that that happens. More than likely, the Giants are on the hook for 2025, and 2026. In totality, this is essentially a 3-year, $73M deal, which could potentially pay off for the Giants. In acquiring Ray, the Giants get the 2021 Cy Young award winner, who has major swing and miss ability (5 seasons with 200k+). It’s also notable that prior to the TJ surgery, Ray was very durable by today’s MLB standard, with 30 starts in 2019, 2021, and 2022. If Ray can even be 75-80% of what he was, he’ll be a huge asset with major upside for a club that badly needed a left handed workhorse.
Robbie Ray Current Contract (Spotrac)
Though the Giants rotation will get a nice addition halfway through the year, DeSclafani is a loss for a club that was already slated to have multiple rookies in the starting rotation. In August however, assuming Ray’s rehab works, the Giants will have a potential front line starter instead of a back end starter in DeSclafani. If all goes well, Ray could be the #2 starter sandwiched between ace Logan Webb and rookie Kyle Harrison on the depth chart. Robbie Ray’s performance has greater variance with a decent chance he doesn’t have the same swing and miss ability when he does come back. For the Giants, the fit is much better with Ray, and they don’t lose much by trading Mitch Haniger, a corner outfielder (they have quite a few) who can’t stay healthy. There is downside for SF on the financial side, given the $25M owed in 2026. However, Haniger and DeSclafani didn’t really fit this roster anymore, and Zaidi found a way to get rid of them without having to really eat cash on their deals. For this reason, I think this is a solid move for the Giants.
Giants 2024 SP Depth Chart (Fangraphs)
Mariners: B+
It’s important to contextualize this grade– it does not include the Luke Raley-Jose Caballero deal, which would likely bump the Mariner’s front office performance closer to an A for the weekend. One thing I like a lot about the Robbie Ray salary dump is that it relieves the Mariners of his 2026 salary, while Mitch Hangier is only on the books through 2025, and DeSclafani is in a contract year. I still think the Mariners could ultimately deal DeSclafani again, since they already have a five man rotation with Miller and Woo in the #4 and #5 spots. Another reason I like this deal is because it creates flexibility to trade Miller or Woo, and Anthony could replace the guy traded and slot in as the 5th starter. There is certainly a chance that we don’t see the 2021 version of DeSclafani again, but at only $12M he’s worth it if he starts 20 games and gives you an ERA in the low-mid 4.00’s.
2024 Mariners SP Depth Chart (Fangraphs)
Mitch Haniger also had a big 2021, which was the last year he didn’t run into injuries and spend significant time off the field. When Mitch is healthy, he’s got 30 homer power. Though Mitch does strike out at an above average rate, he’s not in the 30% K rate territory that Teoscar tends to hang out in. Historically, Mitch has also been solid in right field, and figures to provide value in the 2-3 WAR range if he can stay healthy all year. The addition of Haniger, in conjunction with trading Luke Raley, is a nice shot in the arm for a Seattle lineup that was inconsistent throughout long stretches of the 2023 campaign. Since this deal improves the offense and takes money off the books for 2026, I like this deal quite a bit. I do think it has more upside for the Giants than the Mariners from a performance standpoint, but the financial flexibility makes this deal slightly more convenient for the Mariners.
*Stats are as of 1/7/24