5 Surprise Performers in the NL
Michael Busch of the Chicago Cubs (Getty Images)
5) Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jared is one of three rookies on this list, but I still think I have to place him here. No one expected Jones to be pitching for the big league club in April, and far fewer expected him to dominate. He ranks 99th percentile in chase rate, 97th in whiff, 95th in BB rate, and 93rd in fastball velocity, with an average of 97.1 MPH. The 0.78 WHIP is nice to see in his four starts, but the peripherals are even more encouraging. These numbers are indicative of a frontline starter who’s going to do some damage against Major League lineups.
2024 Jared Jones Baseball Savant
4) Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
Busch’s MLB ascent was blocked in LA by Freddie Freeman, who isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. With everyday playing time since the trade sending him to Chicago, he's ranking 3rd in the National League with a .350 isolated power. He’s got a .453 wOBA and almost symmetrical .454 xwOBA, a key leading indicator of great things to come. If Busch continues this production, he’ll force folks to consider him for the All-Star game, and maybe even fight his way into earning the Rookie of the Year award.
2024 MLB ISO Leaders
3) Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
The 2X All Star had a hard time with the pitch clock last year, giving up 44 homers and finishing with a 5.72 ERA. His wife put a pitching tunnel in the house, and boom– 2.18 ERA in four starts this season! Lance still has home run problems, but his rate is down to 1.74 HR/9 from 2.16 last season. Lynn isn’t going to put up a sub 3.00 ERA this year, but if he provides consistent innings with an ERA in the mid fours, that would be a successful season for the soon-to-be 37 year old veteran.
Lance Lynn Career Stats (bRef)
2) Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres
Jackson hit .273 last year in AA as a shortstop, and this year he’s playing center field for the Padres, hitting .333. It’s been quite a jump in one year for a kid who just turned 21 years old yesterday (happy birthday, Jackson), but I am not shocked that Jackson is having major league success. I am surprised and impressed however, with a young kid hitting 90 points above the MLB average and handling a premium position with no experience like he’s been playing there for years.
Jackson Merrill Season Stats (Fangraphs)
1) Jesse Winker, Washington Nationals
As a resident of Seattle, I saw Jesse Winker put up some stinkers in a Mariners’ uniform and I thought he might be cooked after he hit .199 last year, as many did. He’s back with a vengeance though, hitting .364 with a ridiculous .485 OBP. It’s also worth noting that Winker has a .418 expected wOBA (xwOBA), which ranks 11th in the MLB and implies that this hot start may not be a fluke. He’s a nice pickup for a young Nationals team that’s also enjoying a breakout from CJ Abrams, the best investment so far from the Juan Soto trade.
2024 MLB xwOBA Leaders