5 Teams I'm Eliminating from Playoff Contention
Andrew Vaughn of the Chicago White Sox (MLB)
5) Chicago White Sox, 3-19
With the White Sox as the worst team in the AL right now by a decent margin - especially with the injuries to Luis Robert Jr. and Yoán Moncada - it’s at least nice to see Oakland being able claim a superior roster over an American League peer. The Southside Chicago team has easily the worst offense in the big leagues right now with a pitiful .190 average and an anemic 11 homers in 22 games. Andrew Vaughn and Andrew Benintendi have been two of the worst hitters in baseball this year, and this lineup doesn’t have any positives to offset that kind of negative production. They must have pitching, right? Think again, their 6.24 starter ERA is the worst in baseball. They have the worst offense and worst starting rotation, so they’re on my kill list for Postseason hopes.
2024 MLB Teams with Lowest BA (Fangraphs)
4) Colorado Rockies, 5-18
Now we move onto the worst team in the National League: the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies’ rotation has a 6.19 starter ERA - worst in the National League and in front of only the aforementioned Sox in the MLB. While they do play at Coors Field, and it’s not atypical to see Colorado’s pitching staff give up runs, it was puzzling this offseason to watch them sign arms that pitch to contact in an extreme way like Dakota Hudson. By the same metric of their mile-high ballpark, it’s also unusual to see them rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive production. As a franchise, the Rockies have fumbled the bag with their last few stars — Nolan Arenado comes to mind. In 2023, they stunningly had the worst offense in the MLB, with a 78 wRC+ that bested even the Chicago White Sox for worst production in baseball. This year hasn’t been much better, and this team has a close-to-0% chance of making the playoffs. Cross them off.
2023 MLB Team Rankings Worst wRC+
3) Oakland Athletics, 9-14
Of course you have to have Oakland here for obvious reasons. Their park situation and ownership are both disastrous, while their starting rotation is led by JP Sears. The offense is hitting .204 this year, and hasn’t shown up consistently enough to demonstrate meaningful progress this season. This team has a couple of good players again, including Zack Gelof and Mason Miller, yet their overall roster is still terrible and lacks star power. A few free agent signings would have gone a long way, but this is John Fisher we’re talking about. They won’t be the worst team in the league, which is progress. I don’t expect a playoff berth from them anytime given the lack of seriousness or investment by ownership. Apologies for the sobering reminder, Oakland fans.
A’s Rotation Depth (Roster Resource)
2) Miami Marlins, 6-18
The Marlins were one of the borderline teams that could have a shot in a tough division going into 2024. There’s likely no digging yourself out of a 6-18 record to start the season, even if you’re a top-five club the rest of the way — and the Marlins are unlikely to be a top-five club over any meaningful stretch. They’ve gotten bad breaks with pitching injuries, but they’re also a poorly-run organization, which is a theme on this list. Their big acquisition of the winter, Tim Anderson, has unsurprisingly hit a sub .600 OPS, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. looks overhyped and the team is sporting the lowest wOBA in the National League (.275). Jesús Luzardo is off to an awful start after breaking out last year, but he should be fine long term. The Marlins have some pieces here, largely thanks to solid trades from Kim Ng. Conversely, however, the previous administration was not great in the draft, and the farm system is weak. Don’t expect the Marlins to win the division anytime soon. We’re crossing them off for 2024.
2024 Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hitting Metrics (Baseball Savant)
1) Washington Nationals, 10-11
The reasoning for the Nationals on this list is two-pronged: the NL East is tough and starting pitching gets teams to the playoffs. The Nationals have a close to zero chance of winning the NL East, and there are just too many more talented teams vying for the Wild Card. It’s not impossible they make it, but I have their playoff chances at <1% and so does Fangraphs. Similar to the Marlins, the Nationals have some exciting players breaking out (CJ Abrams) but it won’t be enough for this year. Even if they did find themselves hanging in by the trade deadline, I’d be shocked if Mike Rizzo moved someone like James Wood for a star rental return. The roster isn’t close enough where the Nationals are one or two players away from a deep postseason run. The lack of motivation to push chips in, in conjunction with a rotation currently sporting a 4.61 ERA, is enough for me to take the Nats off the board for 2024.
2024 NL East Playoff Odds (Fangraphs)