Two Mock Trades for Randy Arozarena Becoming a Mariner
Randy Arozarena at the 2023 World Baseball Classic (WBC)
The Tampa Bay Rays have a great opportunity to capitalize on a player who’s in the middle of his prime, and about to get expensive. Unsurprisingly, the Rays just announced they’ll make Randy available in talks, as a first time arb player projected at $7M according to Spotrac. Arozarena is a 2027 free agent, meaning the acquiring club gets three years team control when they acquire him. He’s averaged 3.4 bWAR in the last three years since he won the ROY in 2021. Randy also owns an ALCS MVP trophy, and a ridiculous 1.104 career Postseason OPS. Steamer projects him to post a 2.9 fWAR in 2024, with a .259 line and 23 HR/24SB. He’s hit the 20/20 milestone for three straight years and consistently puts up numbers in big moments. This is the main reason the Seattle Mariners need to go and get him, but not the only one.
Randy Arozarena, Season by Season (Fangraphs)
Seattle has made it clear they are looking to cut down on strikeouts, by making seemingly no effort to bring Teoscar back and dealing Eugenio right before Thanksgiving. It’s no coincidence they cut the two players who led the club in strikeouts. Randy only strikes out about 24% of the time, which is not great but certainly an improvement over Herandez and Suarez. It may be noteworthy that breakout outfielder Jarred Kelenic also was over the 30% mark in 2023 (31.7%). This, coupled with the fact that they play the same position, is a factor in Kelenic being the main piece in a mock trade for Randy. Jarred is a super two, which means he’ll be eligible for arb in 2025, but you’re still getting 5 years of control there. This is extremely attractive for an org that wants to compete, but doesn’t want to pay top salaries. Jarred is also only 24, a decent defender, and a former 60 FV prospect, while Randy is 29 on opening day 2024. If I were running the front office in Tampa Bay, I like the idea of Jarred Kelenic replacing Randy Arozarena, and I think Kelenic could benefit from a change of scenery.
Jared Kelenic, 2023
(Baseball Savant)
If we estimate that Randy will be worth about 9 or 10 bWAR, I’ll project Kelenic conservatively as a 1.5 bWAR player over the next 5 years. That’s a net difference of 2.5 WAR or so, and you really have to put a premium on Randy’s production since these trades are almost always in the seller’s favor from a surplus value standpoint. So, let’s estimate we need to find four or so wins: enter Emerson Hancock and Walter Ford. Hancock projects as a backend starter with plus secondary stuff, while Walter Ford is a young arm that the Mariners drafted last year in the competitive balance round. The Rays need young pitching and innings, while the Mariners need an impact bat in the middle of their order.
Here is the trade: Randy Arozarena for Jarred Kelenic, Emerson Hancock, and Walter Ford
If you follow the Locked On Mariners Pod, you’d know that Ty Dane Gonzalez and Colby Patnode prepared a mock trade that looks like this: Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez and Austin Shenton for Bryce Miller, Walter Ford, and AIdan Smith
I do like this deal, but I find it to be Mariners friendly. Obviously, there is a degree of measurement that depends on the eye of the beholder, but I see Bryce as a back end starter with reliever risk, rather than a mid rotation guy. If you’re Tampa, and you ask for Bryce Miller, I think you can add less since he is pre-arb for multiple seasons. Now, I think that Miller could certainly exceed six wins over the next five or six seasons, but there’s a chance that Miller hits the under on that production. For one, Miller is a fastball and slider guy, with a dominant fastball that gets outs even if he misses in the zone because of the vertical ride. The fastball is 70 grade, and averages out at about 95 MPH, while the slider is a 45 grade with some room for improvement. Miller doesn’t walk too many guys, as evidenced by a 4.8% BB rate. This is a huge positive indicator for Miller to remain a starter, but the lack of secondary pitches could be troublesome. Additionally, Miller outperformed his peripherals, with a 4.86 xERA, and 10.9% barrel rate. Bryce offers a young controllable starter with six years of team control, but he may be more of a #4 or #5 starter than a #2 or a #3.
As I’m putting together a deal with Miller as the centerpiece, I like the idea of adding Caballero, Clase, and Berroa. Caballero had a great rookie campaign, and plays 2B and SS at a high level and has elite speed. He is a weak hitter, but provides a nice buffer in the middle infield for Tampa while they see how the situation with Wander Franco plays out. Clase has 80 grade speed, but has a small frame and probably won’t ever hit much at the MLB level. For this reason, he projects as a 4th outfielder who can handle center field, while Berroa is a classic fastball/ slider reliever who’s only 24 years old. At first glance, this may seem like a haul, but Clase and Caballero are role players, not everyday players long term and Berroa is a one inning guy.
Bryce Miller, 2023
(Baseball Savant)
Evenstill, I think this deal tilts everything too much in Tampa’s favor and for this reason, I would suggest offering a major league player who’s getting a bit expensive, such as former super two player Harold Ramirez. Harold is a DH bat with a projected salary of $6.4M in 2024, but he’s proven he can produce consistently at the major league level. Ramirez is under control for two years and has hit .306 for Tampa in the last few seasons. Ramirez is limited defensively and won’t hit more than 15 HR, but he’s a solid hitter and strikes out less than 20% of the time. To me, this is a nice balanced deal that gives each team things that they need.
Final trade: Randy Arozarena and Harold Ramirez for Bryce Miller, Jose Caballero, Jonatan Clase, and Prelander Berroa.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
*Stats are as of 11/29/23