Mock Trade: Juan Soto to the Yankees

The Padres enter the Winter Meetings with an estimated payroll of $186,363,678, which is probably thirty or forty million higher than their target. They’re coming off an underwhelming 82-80 season with a stacked roster, and now face a tough problem with a bloated payroll and a closing window. At present, the Padres starting rotation depth is: Musgrove, Darvish, Waldron, Avila, and Jay Groome. If you don’t recognize those last three, you’re not alone. The Padres can’t compete with only two major league starters on their staff, and they’ll need to move salaries to be able to acquire starting pitching through trade. The most obvious move here is to trade Juan Soto in his arb four season, with a projected salary of $27M in 2024. Juan Soto is arguably the best pound for pound hitter in the league, and immediately turns a major weakness for the Yankees into a huge strength: offensive production from their outfielders. The Padres and the Yankees are similar in the sense that they’ve both been disappointing in the last several years, but they contrast in their reaction to these failures. The Yankees seem ready for a big splash, which doesn't really sound optional for Yankee fans. They haven't felt like the bully on the block since 2009 and it’s time for them to acquire a star to protect Judge in the lineup and bring relevance back to the Bronx.

The Padres will get the most value for Soto by trading to an org that feels confident about their ability to lock Soto up long term. The Yankees are one of the few teams that do make sense for Juan Soto, in part because of the short porch at Yankee stadium, but also because of the brand and the history. If the Yankees manage to acquire Juan this offseason, there’s a chance they’ll be able to extend him. However, there is a possibility that Soto won’t even consider an offer until he can hit the open market next winter. If this is the case, the Yankees could be trading a massive haul for a one year rental. That said, Soto is a special one year rental, a left handed power hitter who constantly puts up a .400 OBP. In 2023, he ranked 99th percentile in hard hit rate and chase %, while finishing 96th percentile in average exit velo.

Regarding the package for Juan Soto, one thing the Yankees can do to mitigate the pieces leaving town is to add cash. The Padres have a few salaries to get rid of, and an easy one to add is Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is a former Yankee, and exercised his option for 2024 after a terrible season this year. However, he did post a strong 11.1% barrel rate, walked a lot, and he’s left handed. He had a great year in New York a few seasons ago, and I wouldn’t rule out some production from him in 2024. If not, it’s a salary dump on the $5.5M, and you’re basically paying $32M or so for Soto. By shifting $32.5M over the Yankees, the Padres are able to get closer to that $150M payroll number, and the Yankees have a competitive offense in the AL East. The centerpiece of the package going to San Diego will likely be a young starter, perhaps someone like Drew Thorpe, who projects as a mid rotation starter in the bigs. They’d also need to add an MLB established young arm like Clarke Schmidt. The final piece to round the deal out could be a player like Oswaldo Peraza or Everson Pereira. Thorpe throws strikes consistently, racks up innings, and has plus offspeed. For these reasons, he has almost no reliever risk, and it’s hard to imagine him falling below his floor as a back end starter. Schmidt is a 27-year-old right handed starter, and a solid one at that. He had a 4.33 xERA, and rated about average in most advanced metrics. The outlier numbers are his 6.6 BB % (77th percentile), and 22.6 % whiff (25th percentile). Schmidt might not be overpowering or have huge swing and miss ability, but he limits baserunners enough and can get 15-17 outs consistently. This is what the doctor ordered for the Padres for 2024.

Clarke Schmidt, 2023

*(Baseball Savant)*

The final piece in the deal could be an outfielder exchange like Pereira or an infielder like Peraza. Acquiring Peraza could allow the Padres to move the Cronenworth contract and it seems like a nice fit to get Oswald everyday at bats in the big leagues. Peraza is still seen as an above average shortstop in the bigs defensively, but Volpe jumped over him on the depth chart and things have stalled in New York. A change of scenery could be a good opportunity for Peraza, while the Yankees are happy with Volpe anyhow. Juan Soto is a 6-7 WAR player according to most projection systems for 2024, so we needed a big package to close on the Padres here (Juan Soto sells himself).

This is the final mock trade: Juan Soto and Matt Carpenter for Drew Thorpe, Clarke Schmidt, and Oswald Peraza.

On the budget sheet for the Yankees, they’re currently projected for $195,926, 666, which leaves about $44.75M for CBT space. This deal would add about $32.5M, and would constitute as the major transaction for the Yankees financially this offseason. They could add other pieces, but they won’t have the space to sign a premier starter unless they’re willing to go over the CBT. If they have Soto in this lineup with Judge, I’d argue this is a competitive roster with the Soto addition. They will need some good luck and health, but they’ve had enough misfortune to expect something different in 2024. On the other hand, the Padres got two mid rotation arms in this mock trade, and an infielder who could profile at 2B, 3B, and obviously SS. These three players can also contribute in 2024 on pre-arb salaries, which is exactly what the Padres need. This is a good San Diego team with stars like Tatis Jr., Machado, and Bogaerts— there’s no need to strip it for parts yet. Adding two guys to this rotation makes this a playoff contender and extends the competitive window for the Padres past next season.