Time for a Big Splash in Birdland

The O’s have not made a big splash in the winter since they inked Chris Davis to the infamous 7/$161M deal back in January 2016, which did not go well to say the least. Davis hit .196 over 5 years, while struggling with injuries before ultimately getting cut in 2020. Davis did hit 38 HR in his 2016 campaign, but it was his last season with above average offensive production. In totality, this contract was an albatross for a smaller budget club like the O’s, though the lack of budget is more about frugality than lack of assets in the Angelos family. Mike Elias has to push forward and make at least one significant signing this season, if not two, to show Birdland fans that the Orioles front office is serious about a Postseason run. There are three ways to make a significant impact: extensions, free agent signings, and trades.

Extensions

Once players enter their arb two seasons, it tends to get difficult to extend players as they get closer to the open market. Two players that are nearing this timeline in their careers are Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays. The O’s may only need to extend one of the two, but they really should make an effort to extend one.

The argument for Mullins includes his ability to play centerfield and that he’s a left handed hitter, while Austin Hays is coming off a better year at the plate and would likely be cheaper. Due to the ability to play center field, I’d prefer to see Elias ink Mullins into his mid thirties to provide stability in the outfield. Since Cedric is coming off a down year, the price tag might be lower than expected despite the upside of a top 10 MVP finish. If the O’s do want to get some of the kids on long term deals, Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson are a good place to start in an effort to extend the competitive window.

Cedric Mullins, 2023 (Baseball Savant)

Free Agent Signings

The Orioles offense was 7th in the American League with a 105 wRC+ and a .320 wOBA. The heart of their offense, consisting of guys like Adley and Gunnar, is young and should improve significantly this season as a whole even without major additions. They also have potential impact hitters coming up, including guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, and number one prospect in the game, Jackson Holliday. This offense will be formidable in 2024, and I expect Elias to focus both his attention and resources toward the starting rotation, which was a major weakness both in the regular season and the ALDS. The Orioles demonstrated their need for starting pitching with a sweep in the ALDS, largely attributed to 14.63 starting rotation ERA in that series. The Orioles need a left handed starter in particular, and Wade Miley is now off the market after re-signing with Milwaukee. Two guys who could make sense are Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery. Both are left handed starters with success in the AL East, but neither will be cheap. Due to Monty’s playoff success and superior durability, I see Rodriguez as a more realistic option for Elias and the Orioles. Rodriguez has averaged a 4.04 ERA with 25 starts a season over the last three years and should command a price tag in the range of $20M a year. I had projected 4/$68M with E-Rod going to the Orioles before the offseason kicked off. Another less likely option is Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga, but his market is pretty robust and could get close to $100M. I’m not sure I see Baltimore paying $100M for a pitcher from another league with no MLB experience. For that reason, I see Eduardo as the more realistic option.

As far as right handed pitching, I do think the Orioles could benefit from guys in the 3rd tier in the market, such as Seth Lugo or Michael Lorenzen. Baltimore can definitely compete in this price range, and right now would benefit from two starting pitchers with the loss of Jack Flaherty. At present, their rotation looks like: Grayson, Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, and John Means/ Cole Irvin in the 5 slot. With the young guys in the O’s rotation, they could likely utilize a six man rotation with the addition of two starts, such as E-Rod and Seth Lugo. It would look something like this: Grayson, Bradish, E-Rod, Lugo, Kremer, and Wells. John Means would be considered depth due to his major injuries, while Cole Irvin would serve as depth that would likely be used at some point due to the spike in the starting pitching injuries. Seth Lugo is 34 and started 26 games in a late career conversion from reliever to starter, with a 3.57 ERA in 146 innings. Lorenzen struggled down the stretch for the Phillies after the no hitter in August, but he’s a few years younger and has a similar late yet successful transition from reliever to starter. Presumably, each of these guys would be somewhere in the $12M-$15M range. With the way Lance Lynn and Luis Severino got paid already, those projections may be conservative.

Trade Possibilities

It would be very surprising to see the Orioles trade for a one year rental, so that rules out starters like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, and Tyler Glasnow. However, pitchers with multiple years of control, like Dylan Cease and Logan Gilbert, could certainly be in play. Cease is under control for the next two seasons and the Orioles have the young talent to make the deal happen. Cease has a 3.54 ERA over the last three seasons, including a 2nd place Cy Young finish in 2022. Gilbert, on the other hand, is a super two and has four years of team control as a frontline starter. He would take multiple significant pieces, but Gilbert would immediately give the Orioles a potential ace for four years of their competitive window. Gilbert has averaged 32 starts in the last two seasons, with a 3.47 over 376.1 innings of work. The Orioles also have their own rental player in Anthony Santander, who they could flip for pitching with the surplus of outfield talent they have right now. Santander is in his final year of control and set to make over $14M, making him a prime candidate for a deal in a thin position player market.