Grading the Juan Soto Trade
Juan Soto (Clutch Points, Theresa Henderson/Getty Images)
Thank goodness! We finally have a premier player on the move this offseason. Every MLB writer on the planet was tweeting and tracking this deal ad-nauseum, but it’s hard for us not to get excited in an offseason, where nothing too significant has really happened. We’ve seen the Mariners cut payroll, and the Cardinals add a few senior citizens to their starting rotation, but that was about it– until yesterday.
SD gets: RHP Michael King, C Kyle Higashioka, RHP Jhony Brito, RHP Randy Vásquez and RHP Drew Thorpe.
NYY gets: OF Juan Soto, OF Trent Grisham
Padres
Initially, we thought AJ Preller might ask for Volpe or Dominguez, but it became apparent that the Padres lost a lot of leverage once their financial issues were leaked and beloved owner Peter Seidler passed away. Now, I don’t think they were ever going to get either of those guys, but they have gotten a slightly better package, perhaps throwing Clarke Schmidt in there instead of Michael King, who has only two years of control left. I love Mark Feinsand’s breakdown via X “After 2 trades in 16 months, the Padres essentially dealt James Wood, Robert Hassell, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jarlin Susana & Luke Voit for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez & Kyle Higashioka, 214 Juan Soto games, 53 Josh Bell games and 1 NLCS appearance.” A couple years after the Nationals and Padres blockbuster, James Wood is a 60 FV prospect, who looks like a future all star, while Abrams is an everyday quality shortstop and MacKenzie Gore is a mid rotation starter. Hassell hasn’t worked out, but the Nationals still got a massive haul in that deal, and now the Padres have cashed in on Soto without getting any stars or future stars back in return.
That said, the Padres got some serious pitching depth that they really needed. They didn’t get future star Spencer Jones in this deal, but they did get Drew Thorpe, who projects as a mid rotation workhorse who should be ready in the next year or so. Thorpe has a 65 grade changeup, a 55 grade slider, and now finds himself slotted at #6 on the Padres prospect list. Michael King and Randy Vasquez figure to slot in the Padres rotation as #3 and #4 right away. The rotation now projects as: Musgrove, Darvish, King, Vasquez, and Waldron. Brito presumably adds to the bullpen or competes with Waldron for the #5 slot. San Diego gets two years of Michael King , who had a 2.23 ERA as a starter in 40 innings last season. Brito and Vasquez are larger question marks, but they have MLB experience and are fringe MLB at a minimum. Brito has a nice changeup and had a 4.51 ERA in split duty between starts and bullpen appearances in 2023. Vasquez has a 70 grade breaking ball, but struggles with command and brings reliever risk to the Padres.
2023 Padres Pitching Depth Chart, Roster Resource (Fangraphs)
Finally, bringing in Higgy as a rental for a year behind a young bat-first catcher in Campusano makes a ton of sense. Higashioka ranked in the 90th percentile in pitch framing in 2023, and still has a sub 2.00 pop time. The defense may be better as he gets more rest, and he’s shown some pop in his bat in the past few years as well. Higgy might be gone after 2024, but he provides defense, as well as some teaching opportunities for Campusano to improve behind the plate.
The final point here is the Padres offload about $35M in salary between Grisham and Soto. I’m not sure why they were so eager to get rid of Grisham’s premium defense, but it feels like he’s a salary dump even though he’s only projected to make $5M or so and is under control for 2025 as well. Dumping Grisham makes me think Preller has plans to acquire two outfielders, but I still plan on deducting a few points for the addition. Secondly, the Padres acquired pitching depth, but no stars and no top 50 prospects.
Padres Grade: B
Yankees
Overall, this is a great trade for the Yankees that they had to make. They also avoided moving Volpe, Dominguez, and SpencerJones. Cashman also somehow convinced Preller that he didn’t need Clarke Schmidt, which is a head scratcher to me. They get Juan Soto for a year, and presumably a chance to extend him as well. The left handed power hitter archetype is the player Yankee Stadium was built for, which made this trade so appealing. Soto is a durable player, averaging 155 games over the past three seasons. If he stays healthy again, he has a good shot at 130 walks and 40 home runs, while giving Aaron Judge some protection as well. Presumably Soto hits 3rd in the lineup behind Judge or hits 2nd, ahead of him.
2023 Yankees Lineup, Roster Resource (Fangraphs)
I actually had the Padres getting a slightly better haul in my estimation here, with Schmidt, Thorpe, and Peraza going to San Diego, and Matt Carpenter going to New York instead of Grisham. Grisham is a much more valuable $5M salary than Carpenter and represents more than a salary dump due to his premium defense in the outfield. I love the move to add Grisham by Cashman (especially with two years of control), but moving this much pitching depth is a concern, especially coupled with the Verdugo trade. I assume Judge is playing center field in 2024 at this point, which I don’t like for a 32 year old superstar. I’d actually like this deal more if I knew Judge wasn’t playing center, but this is still a great deal by Cashman to get a top 5 hitter in baseball, without trading a premium prospect in return. Now, the Yankees also need to add Yamamoto or another premium starter to make this Soto trade count, so the grade is somewhat in suspense until we see the Yankees make other moves. They appear to be ready to blow past the $237M CBT number, as Yankee fans are already salivating with visions of dominating the American League. For now, I’ll assume the Yankees add a frontline starter and maybe one or two other pieces.
Yankees Grade: A-
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*Stats are as of 12/06/2023