Ohtani the Unicorn Signs with Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani of the L.A. Dodgers (Bleacher Report)
Shohei Ohtani broke the news that every MLB journalist wanted to break– his own news about his next club. Shohei’s agent Nez Balelo managed to drive the offer sheet up to 10 years/$700M despite two Tommy John surgeries, and a return to pitching in 2025. I don’t recall seeing a serious baseball person project more than $650M, so it’s fair to say that this contract is more than what most of us expected. Is it worth it? Let’s evaluate that by looking at the context of the deal, as well as the pure baseball value.
Ohtani will make $70M annually, which also works out to $7900 per hour. From his perspective, I think this deal makes sense both for convenience and fit. Shohei lives in southern California, the Dodgers are a storied franchise that is already competitive, and they’re on a short list of clubs who can swing a deal of this size. I had predicted the Dodgers, as many had, largely because it made so much sense for Shohei due to both the geography and the perennial World Series chances the Dodgers can provide. This is a win for Ohtani, and this is also a win for the international baseball community and the baseball world as a whole, because we all presumably get to see Ohtani in the playoffs on an annual basis.
From the lens of both Los Angeles and Andrew Friedman, this move firmly establishes the Dodgers as the juggernaut of the league. They won the 2020 World Series, but have fallen short now in three consecutive Postseason runs. The organization knew they needed an impact player, but they also knew they needed a star in the commercial sense as well. Shohei is a generational must-watch player, and that kind of magnetism will bring in a few hundred million minimum in gains purely from a business and marketing perspective. I don’t dare speculate on projections, but someone will try to do that math. This signing also likely sets the foundation to be a favorite landing spot for other free agents, due to their stacked roster and the instant attention you’re getting from the LA market and the Shohei following as well. Finally, there is word about “unprecedented deferrals,” which could set the Dodgers up for success by limiting the payroll liability and CBT exposure (the AAV is expected to be in the $40-$50M range) in the short term. There are some obvious concerns with the health issues, not only the elbow history, but also his oblique injury toward the end of the year. It’s difficult to really project what Ohtani’s pitching history will look like, but I have a hard time imagining he’ll pitch through the entire contract. Jay Jaffe wrote a great article back in August here, about the discrepancy in Shohei’s ZIPS projections before and after the second Tommy John surgery. Here is before and after:
Ohtani ZIP Pitching Projections before 2nd Tommy John surgery (Fangraphs)
Ohtani ZIPS Pitching Projections after 2nd Tommy John surgery (Fangraphs)
Notably, Ohtani won’t pitch until 2025, and isn’t projected by ZIPS to start more than 18 games for the rest of his career. Prior to the surgery, Ohtani was projected to have frontline starter production, with ZIPS fWAR of over 3.0 for each of the next four seasons. Now, Shohei the pitcher is projected for a sub two fWAR for the remainder of his career. Even with the elbow issues, Ohtani should be an elite hitter, but the pitching side of things is a larger unknown. If he can only average 100 or so innings a year, $70M is a lot from the baseball operations perspective for a DH that starts about 18 games a year on the mound. However, the baseball operations side is really only half of it, as you have a country of 130 million who will be tracking Shohei’s game and progress throughout the life of this deal. He may be baseball’s first true international superstar, and we should be careful not to underestimate his popularity in other countries as well. Additionally, there are two other paths for the Dodgers and Ohtani. One is Shohei giving up pitching and moving to the outfield, a position for which he was regarded as a plus defender back in Japan. Door number three is a move to the bullpen, which could preserve his arm. You could be providing a higher floor with either of these options, but you limit his ceiling and betray his preferred combination of being a starting pitcher and a DH. He prefers it, his fans prefer it, and so do the numbers from a value standpoint.
As a hitter, he’s been a top hitter in the league and projects well in ZIPS. ZIPS can be conservative, and I certainly wouldn’t bet against Ohtani reaching his 80th percentile production a few times throughout the length of the deal. As you might expect, ZIPS projects a significant decline in the mid thirties, which is pretty typical. That said, Ohtani should be a middle of the order force with Mookie, Freddie, and Co. for the next several years. If he can outperform his projections as a DH, it could alleviate some of the pressure he faces as a pitcher.
Shohei Ohtani ZIPS Hitting Projections (Fangraphs)
Overall, even if Shohei underperforms on the mound from an expectation standpoint and pitches like a mid-rotation starter, it will still be exhilarating to watch the unicorn do unicorn things. It’s hard to consider this contract a win for the Dodgers without at least one championship, even if they clear a billion in value over the next ten years, from the combination of baseball and commercial value. I think Shohei will feel at home in LA, and his personality seems to suit Los Angeles more so than it does New York. Tracking this whole process was great for baseball, even if there was some irresponsible journalism mixed in. We are going to be able to witness an international superstar in the Postseason for the next several years, which is a success to me. Opening day 2024 can’t come soon enough.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
*Stats are as of 12/9/23