6 of the Worst Contracts in MLB
Giancarlo Stanton of the New York Yankees (New York Post)
For simplification purposes, we will only consider contracts for players who are still active. This specifically excludes Stephen Strasburg, who is owed $105M at age 35, but severe nerve damage has rendered him inactive. I will also have a bias toward larger total liabilities, rather than bad deals on the last year or two of the contract. Take Patrick Corbin for example, who is set to make $35M this season. Though this is obviously one of the worst liabilities in the league this season, he’ll be off the books this time next year. There are two archetypes that resurface here regularly, starting pitchers with health issues, and position players with health issues. These guys were all Cy Young contenders or earned MVP votes at some point, but injuries have robbed them of their full potential. If you think I should have a different top 6, please let me know in the comments.
Giancarlo Stanton, DH | 34 yo
Yankees: Owed $128 over 4 years (includes a 2028 buyout), Full NTC
As I mentioned, we aren’t including Strasburg on this list, since he’s done playing. De facto, Giancarlo may be the worst deal in the league right now. Stanton had decent years for the Yankees in 2018 and 2021, but otherwise has fought a rash of injuries. All told, Stanton’s accrued 8.3 bWAR over 6 seasons, with half from 2018. The Yanks will be lucky if Giancarlo is a replacement level DH over the next four years, and it’s hard to imagine any other clubs being interested in him at this point. It’d be cool to see him get to 500 HR’s, if he can stay healthy.
Giancarlo Stanton Seasonal Stats (bRef)
2. Kris Bryant, RF | 32 yo
Rockies: Owed $131 over 5 years (through 2028), Full NTC
The Rockies could be the worst run org in the MLB, so I guess the shoe fits when their largest signing made no sense and has also gone very poorly. The Rockies got little back for Nolan Arenado in a trade, shortly before signing Bryant to become one of the highest paid players in the league. In fact, he’s still the highest paid outfielder in the league. In two years with the Rockies, Bryant has a 93 OPS+ in 122 games. Kris has an above average arm in right, but does check in below average in range, and will need to hit 35 HR to carry much value for the Rockies. So far, he’s failed to live up to the contract that pays him as a middle of the order bat at third base. He’s now a corner outfielder putting up 4th outfielder production.
Kris Bryant Batting Stats by Team (bRef)
3. Anthony Rendon, 3B | 33 yo
Angels: Owed $114M over 3 years, Full NTC
Rendon had a career year at the right time, winning the World Series, leading the league in RBI and finishing 3rd in MVP voting back in 2019 before signing a $245M deal. He’s still owed $114M and has a full no trade clause. He also hasn’t played a full season since 2019 and somehow has only accrued 3.1 bWAR in 4 years in Anaheim. Rendon was a two way star in his prime as a middle of the order bat and premium defender, but now the barrel % and sweet spot numbers are going the same direction as the others. Will we see a healthy Rendon in 2024? Time will tell, Steamer projects him at 2.3 fWAR over a full season.
Anthony Rendon Seasonal Comparison (Baseball Savant)
4. Carlos Rodon, LHP | 31 yo
Yankees: Owed $135M over 5 years, Full NTC
Not only was Carlos Rodon diagnosed with chronic back issues, he was bad for the entire 3 month stretch he was active on the Yankees staff. A 6.85 ERA with a 2.10 HR/9 rate, Rodon ranked 1st percentile in barrel %, 30th in hard hit %, and 2nd percentile in average exit velocity. These metrics are huge red flags for a guy owed $135M. Let’s hope Rodon gets healthy this year and shows his 2022 form and at least pitches at a serviceable level.
Carlos Rodon, Pitching
(Baseball Savant)
5. Javier Baez, SS | 31 yo
Tigers: Owed $98M over 4 years, 10 Team NTC
Javy is unfortunately the worst of these shortstop deals, even though he is one guy who can actually play short well. He’s only posted a .300 wOBA once in the last four years, hitting .222 this past year with only 9 HR in 547 PA. Baez also doesn’t walk much (3rd percentile), and swings at everything, which certainly contributes to his woes. Detroit will hope to salvage as much value as they can over these next four years, especially from Javier’s defense at short. Best case scenario at this point may be 1-2 WAR a year, given that all the KPI’s point to decline for Baez right now at the plate. Steamer projects Baez for a .295 wOBA, with a .287 OBP in 2024, with a 0.8 fWAR and 1st percentile chase rate. Not exactly what you’re looking for from a $25M player.
Javier Baez, Batting
(Baseball Savant)
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS | 31 yo
Padres: Owed $250M over 10 years, Full NTC
Xander’s stats at the finish line weren’t so bad, .285 with 19 HR and 19 SB. The issue is the .285/ .350/.440 line differs quite a bit from Xander’s expected line of .252/.317/.395. The other problem for Xander is that he is unlikely to stay at short for more than maybe another year or two. If Xander is moved to 2nd or 3rd, the offensive profile and expectation will be raised, especially at 3B. Now, Xander was still a 4.0 bWAR player in 2023 (4.4 fWAR), but I think there is a solid chance year one is the best year of the deal. 4th percentile in Sweet Spot %, 19th in average exit velocity, and 18th percentile in hard hit %. It is worth noting that Bogaerts finished in the top fourth of the league in chase, whiff, and k %. Similar to Rodon, this deal felt like a bad one before it even started, even if for different reasons. Xander doesn’t seem to have significant health issues, I just can’t see him staying at shortstop or winning the fight against quality of contact metrics long term.
Xander Bogaerts, Batting
(Baseball Savant)
Honorable Mentions: Trevor Story, Jacob Degrom, Salvador Perez, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Pat Corbin, Yoan Moncada, Mike Trout, Justin Verlander
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
*Stats are as of 11/22/2023