The Non Tenders Become Free Agents

Brandon Woodruff of the Milwaukee Brewers *(Clutch Points)*

On Friday, the 17th, teams had until 8:00 ET to decide which players they would be tendering contracts to. Those who were tendered have until January 12th to agree to terms with their club, before the case is sent to arbitration. Those who were not tendered contracts on Friday are now free agents, including a few All Stars, such as Brandon Woodruff and Daniel Vogelbach. By nature, these players have something amiss, usually either an injury history or a disappointing few seasons, perhaps a combination of the two. Let’s take a look at a few of our new free agents who could be of interest to other clubs.

Brandon Woodruff, RHP | 31 yo
Projected 2024 Arbitration Salary: $11.4M

For a small- mid market club like Milwaukee, $11.4M is a lot to spend on an arm that may not even make an appearance in 2024. Woodruff had shoulder surgery in October, and could optimistically make a handful of starts after the 2024 trade deadline. A larger market team could take a flier on him with the hope that he’s ready to go for a few starts down the stretch. The other option is a two year with incentives or club options, but I’d opt to keep it clean and sign for the year to have rehab and potentially make a few starts to get his career back on track. Brandon has made two all star teams and finished 5th in Cy Young voting back in 2021. He has a 27-15 record with a 2.70 ERA in the last three years, and is a true ace when he’s healthy. Teams will be willing to give a few million with the possibility of him pitching down the stretch.

Potential fits: Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Padres

2) Daniel Vogelbach, DH | 31 yo

Projected 2024 Arbitration Salary: $2.6M

Vogelbach hit 30 HR back in 2019 when he made the AS team for the Mariners, but unfortunately hit .162 in the 2nd H that year. Vogelbach brings left handed power to the table and that’s about it. Daniel has a 1.7 bWAR over 8 seasons despite carrying a .753 OPS. The advanced math may not say so, but clubs have to fit out their lineup, and Vogelbach can easily hit 30 home runs if he’s playing everyday. Little to no versatility defensively, Vogelbach will play some first base and probably command a lionshare of the DH spot. Steamer projects a 112 wRC+ for Vogelbach in 2024.

Potential fits: Guardians, Marlins, Brewers, Nationals, Royals, A’s

Daniel Vogelbach Season by Season & Projections *(Fangraphs)*

3) Kyle Lewis, LF | 28 yo

Projected 2024 Arbitration Salary: $1.61M

Kyle Lewis won the ROY back in 2020, when he posted a 124 OPS+ during the COVID shortened season. Lewis has been plagued by injuries since, but found his form in AAA this season, hitting .371 and driving in 80 runs in 63 games. Lewis could probably handle either LF or RF, but hasn’t played center field since 2021 so that may be a stretch. Lewis could be a nice depth for clubs looking to add 4th of 5th outfielders. I see him as a candidate to build value and an opportunity to draw a return at the trade deadline for non contending clubs.

Potential fits: Royals, Rockies, Angels, Red Sox, A’s

4) Jacob Stallings, C | 34 yo

Projected 2024 Arbitration Salary: $3.6M

The Jacob Stallings era was brutal for the Miami Marlins and for Stallings himself in the two-year tenure, as he hit .210/.287/.290 and compiled a -1.3 bWAR in over 200 games. When the Marlins acquired Stallings from the Pirates, Jacob was coming off a 3.0 bWAR season, not to mention the Gold Glove he won. Stallings still blocks pitches well and had a 1.97 sec pop time in 2023. It’s unlikely Stallings can match his career year again, but he’s worth a guaranteed major league deal for the teams that don’t have backup catchers in this thin market.

Potential fits: White Sox, Astros, Rays, DBacks, Rockies, Brewers

Jacob Stallings 2021-2023 Value Stats *(bRef)*

5) Rowdy Tellez, DH | 29 yo

Projected 2024 Arbitration Salary: $5.9M

This one was really a no brainer for Milwaukee, as there was a projected $5.9M price tag for Rowdy, another one dimensional left handed DH. The other major problem here is that Rowdy didn’t hit this year, finishing at .215 with only 13 HR and .288 wOBA a season after hitting 35 home runs. Rowdy has a nice 2022 campaign, finishing with a 110 wRC+ before putting up a pedestrian 78 wRC+ in 2023. Tellez was also bad in 2021, and doesn’t have the consistency that Vogelbach has provided. However, Rowdy is only 29 and I believe there will be teams calling, looking to get 25-30 HR from a DH for maybe a million bucks. If that’s what your club is looking for, Rowdy might be your guy. FGDC projects Rowdy to get 294 PA, and put up a 107 wRC+.

Potential fits: Same as Vogelbach

Rowdy Tellez Season by Season Hitting Stats & 2024 Projections *(Fangraphs)*

6) Lou Trivino, RHP | 32 yo

Projected 2024 Arbitration Salary: $4.1M

There are multiple relievers who you could add here, such as Adam Cimber, Jovani Moran, and company, but Trivino has some of the highest upside. Lou had Tommy John surgery in May 2023 after putting up a 1.66 ERA in 25 appearances for the Yankees back in 2022. He’s still only 28 years old, and has good stuff. Someone lacking bullpen depth will take a chance on him, same goes for guys like Adam Cimber and Matt Bush.

Potential fits: Angels, Rangers, Cardinals, Mets, Marlins