What should the Mets do with Polar Bear?
Pete Alonso of the New York Mets (New York Mets Photography)
The Mets have had a tumultuous season, including a fire sale at the trade deadline, and a GM resignation followed by an investigation on manipulation of the injury list. Last year, around this time, most people were operating under the assumption that Steve Cohen and the Mets front office would give Pete Alonso his number and keep him in New York. The Mets were coming off a 101 win season in 2022, and had signed and traded for marquee players to improve the roster. After spending close to a half a billion dollars for 75 wins in 2023, the starting rotation is unrecognizable and the offense has some significant holes as well. Even if they manage to sign a few blue chip free agents, will they be a competitive team in the NL East against both the Braves and the Phillies? The Mets have three options with Alonso: extend him, trade him, or hold on to him under the one year deal and see where they are at the trade deadline.
What would an Alonso extension look like?
Pete has averaged .250/.338/.513 over the last three seasons, with 41 HR a year while averaging 155 games. He is 29 years old, only plays 1B, but has prodigious 40 HR power. He is considered to be a roughly average defender and as a solid baserunner, albeit with only 26 ft/sec speed. From 2021-2023, Polar Bear has averaged 3.9 bWAR, putting him in the same production neighborhood as Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Max Muncy. A first baseman extension that could be comparable was back in March 2019 when Paul Goldschmidt agreed to a 5 year/$130M extension. Goldy had hit .295/.401/.528 from 2016-2018 when this deal was closed, so it’s fair to say he had significantly better numbers than Pete. Moreover, Paul averaged 19 stolen bags in this three year range and is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman. St. Louis has gotten 19.2 bWAR in the four years of this five year deal, so this one has aged well. You can also look at the Matt Olson extension in March 2022, when Matt signed for 8 years/ $168M with Atlanta.
Pete Alonso 2021-2023 Seasons (bRef)
Olson easily topped Freddie Freeman’s $135M extension back in 2014, and set a new market for star first basemen. At the time of this extension, Olson had hit .257/.354/.522 over from 2019-2021, and similar to Goldy, has a reputation as an elite defender at 1B. The offensive numbers are similar to Alonso’s though, and I think we can use this number to base our projections. The years will likely be similar, and I don’t see Pete settling for less than $30M/year (he’s a 3.9- 4.0 bWAR player so Scott Boras will do that math for him), which would be #1 above Freddie’s $27M salary and Goldy’s $26M annual number. I also expect Pete to look for 8 years, which puts us at $240M. I do think Pete will likely ask for around $250M, and he very well could get it when he hits the open market. According to ZIPS, Pete’s 80th percentile outcome in 2024 is a 156 OPS+, which would have been 8th in the MLB this year for reference.
Extension projection: 8 years | $248M
What if they trade him?
As mentioned above, Pete is a 4.0 bWAR player on average, he could fall closer to 3 wins or rise to 5. Evenstill, this is a decent foundation to project a trade. If you’re acquiring a middle of the order bat like Pete as a rental, you’re going to be parting with a centerpiece worthy player, and the Mets could ask for major league ready pitching. Kodai Senga is the team’s ace, and Jose Quintana is penciled in for the middle of the rotation. Other than that, things are dicey for the Mets pitching staff. There has been quite a bit of buzz about the Cubs, which could fit from the standpoint that the Cubs need a first baseman and could use 40 HR a year. However, the rumored center piece in the deal is Christopher Morel, a 24 year old DH with 30 HR power. The Mets would get 5 years of Morel, plus whoever else is included in the deal for Pete. However, I expect a starting pitcher to be the main piece of the deal, and for that reason I don’t see the Cubs as a likely destination. Teams like the Guardians and the Mariners seem like potential fits, with the starting pitching they boast on their major league club. It’s also possible the Mets settle for a young arm still in the minor leagues, a 45-50 FV type arm that’s expected to be major league ready in the next few years. The San Francisco Giants have a few arms meeting this criteria and clearly were missing star power this season. The Padres seem to be flirting with a fire sale, which could create the power vacuum the Giants need in the NL West. Alonso instantly takes the Giant lineup to a new level, and would go a long way toward making them a playoff roster in 2024.
Projection of a trade: Pete Alonso to the Giants for Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, Keaton Winn, and Austin Slater
The Giants have too many outfielders, with Haniger healthy and Conforto opting in. Carson Whisenhunt would be the centerpiece of the deal, as a 23 year old lefty throwing 92-94 with a 60 grade changeup. If Carson can improve his curveball or add another plus offering, he’ll solidify his floor as a back-end starter.
2023 Carson Whisenhunt Tool Grades (Fangraphs)
Keaton Winn is probably more of a middle relief guy or spot starter long term, while Mason Black projects as a back-end starter, but could also thrive as a high leverage reliever because of his nasty 60 grade slider. The Mets also get Austin Slater for a 4th outfielder, who can play all three spots and has a career .747 OPS. He’s a free agent at the end of the year, which makes him a good rental to hold the Mets over until next offseason. The Giants would get a 3-time All Star with average defense at 1B. This haul for the Mets isn’t crazy, but Alonso is only a 4.0 bWAR player. However, given the dearth of everyday players available on the market right now, it’s possible the Mets get a better package than this.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/
https://www.spotrac.com/news/projecting-a-pete-alonso-contract-extension-2042/
*Stats are as of 11/17/2023