The AL West is a Three Team Race
Houston Astros and Texas Rangers (Karen Warren, Houston Chronicle)
The Seattle Mariners are making a historic comeback in the AL West division race with a 25-11 record in the 2nd half and 15-4 in August. Seattle now sits two games behind the Texas Rangers and only half a game behind the Houston Astros. Houston is 21-14 since the break, while Texas is 20-14 in the 2nd half while they stave off their competition for the division. The Rangers have a dominant +184 run differential with Houston and Seattle in a dead heat at +85 and +84 respectively. Of course, only one club can win the division, but their all around solid play has already pushed a few teams out of the race. The Yankees are 11-22 since the All Star break and their season is effectively over with a 9.5 game deficit for the Wild Card. The Angels are 5-13 in August after going all in on the deadline while declining to trade Ohtani. They tied with the Yankees for a .4% playoff probability approaching the end of August. The Red Sox have played just well enough in the Wild Card to stay in, sitting 4 games back. Fangraphs gives them 12% at the Wild Card, as Houston, Seattle, and Toronto fight it out for the last two playoff spots in the American League. Boston is 18-16 in the 2nd Half and it’s going to take more to catch up in the American League. Given their schedule for the remainder of the season (ranked 2nd toughest by Power Rankings Guru), Boston has an outside shot at best. There is a decent chance that three AL West teams are in the playoffs, but more than likely there will be two.
The Seattle Mariners have the best offense in the American League in the 2nd Half with a 128 wRC+ and Houston is right behind at 123 wRC+. Cutting bait on guys like Wong and Pollock seems to have turned the Mariners offense around, while Julio has a ridiculous 173 wRC+ since the All Star break. Almost every regular has played well since the break, with Teoscar being the only core player hitting below average in the 2nd Half (94 wRC+). Seattle’s starting rotation ranks 7th in the 2nd Half, despite Gilbert and Castillo being pretty average. Kirby has broken out with a 3.56 ERA in the 2nd Half and rookie Bryce Miller has also pitched well (3.49 in 2nd H). The bullpen is 1st in the American League with a 2.78 ERA since the break, despite trading closer Paul Sewald. Relatively inexperienced relievers like Justin Topa and Gabe Speier have really stepped up in the absence of Sewald. The X factor for Seattle is whether or not they will continue to hit. They sit in the middle with the 13th toughest schedule through the rest of the season.
Houston, on the other hand, does not have the rotation strength that Seattle does, ranking 20th in the MLB with a 4.74 staff ERA in the 2nd half. Three of their starters– Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Christian Javier– all have ERA’s north of 5.00 in the 2nd H. Verlander has been only ok in his three starts this year since getting dealt back (4.50 ERA), while their ace Framber has a ghastly 6.18 ERA since the break. The bullpen has a 3.63 ERA in this timeframe, good for 9th in the MLB. The Astros have gotten superb production from front end relievers like Bryan Abreu (0.60 ERA since the break) and Rafael Montero (1.84 in the 2nd half). However, the offense is really what has kept them in the race for the division crown. Yordan and Altuve are finally back and their offense is clicking. Houston had a 99 wRC+ in the 1st Half, ranking 17th in the league. In the 2nd Half, they are 3rd in the MLB and have five players with a wRC+ north of 160 in that timeframe. Believe it or not, Yordan is not one of them (133 wRC in the 2nd Half). Role players like McCormick have been raking, as have core players like Altuve, Tucker, and Bregman. The X Factor for Houston is whether or not Framber can get back to his ace form and if Verlander can be the version of himself Houston needs him to be. They do rank 22nd in strength of schedule, so they have some opportunities to rack up wins vs weak teams down the stretch.
Texas had the red hot start that neither Seattle or Houston had, but they cooled off offensively. They are 9th in the 2nd half with a 114 wRC+. In the 1st half, they tied for 1st in the MLB with the Rays and the Braves putting up a 120 wRC+. Corey Seager has stayed red hot with a .756 SLG since the break, while Nathaniel Lowe and Marcus Semien have continued to hit. Ezequiel Duran appears to be back down to earth, hitting .224/.306/.337 in the 2nd Half, while Taveras has fallen off a cliff in that timeframe (.176/.206/.286). The strength of Texas in the 2nd Half has been their starting pitching. Their 3.46 staff ERA is good for 3rd in the MLB. Deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery have each made four starts and have a combined record of 5-2. Scherzer has a 2.66 ERA, while Montgomery has shined even brighter with a 1.73 ERA. Andrew Heaney has also gone 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA, while guys like Dane Dunning and Jon Gray have been pretty average. The bullpen is a much different story, ranking 24th with a 4.96. This group is holding Texas back from running away and has opened the door to the AL West for Seattle and Houston. Closer Will Smith has a putrid 6.92 ERA in 14 games since the break, while recent acquisition Aroldis Chapman has buoyed the pen with a 2.00 ERA in 17 games since being acquired by Kansas City. Their X factor is the bullpen, specifically Will Smith. Another fair question is which version of Max Scherzer will we see in October? Texas ranks 5th in SOS, which is a tough disadvantage for a team that has already lost ground to both Houston and Seattle.
Prediction:
Houston and Seattle have almost exactly the same run differential, albeit with different strengths and weaknesses. I project a well balanced Texas team to stave off both Houston and Seattle. Houston and Seattle both make the Wild Card, while Toronto is bounced out.
http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php
*Stats are as of 8/22/23