Bobby Witt Jr, The Prince of Kansas City
Bobby Witt Jr of the KC Royals (Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports)
Bobby Witt Jr was drafted as a shortstop 2nd overall in 2019 out of Colleyville, Texas. Bobby was picked right after Orioles star Adley Rutschman and before White Sox 1B Andrew Vaughn. Before the shortened 2020 COVID season, Witt Jr. was ranked as the 29th best prospect by Baseball Prospectus and 24th by Baseball America. In 2021, he hit .290 with 33 HR and stole 29 bags, while playing solid defense at short in both AA and AAA. Naturally, Witt’s stock skyrocketed and he was #1 according to both Baseball Prospectus and Major League Baseball by the preseason of 2022. He did strike out at a 24% clip in AA which gave some evaluators cause for concern but there was little to none of Bobby not playing short at the top level, due to his athleticism and good instincts.
In 2021, the Royals had finished as a 74 win team, but in 2022 they slipped to 65 wins. That said, Witt Jr. was a rookie which was enough excitement for KC fans to compensate for another mediocre campaign in the American League Central. Bobby had a good offensive campaign with a 99 wRC+ and .254/.294/.428 across the season. Unfortunately, he had defensive growing pains at short with 16 errors in 96 starts. In 2023, Witt Jr improved dramatically, ranking 1st in the American League with 12 outs above average and only 9 errors in 112 starts at short.
It’s also been a breakout season at the plate as he’s put together 281/.320/.500 production over 123 games. Even more notable, he is hitting .343 with 10 HR in the 2nd Half, showing his superstar ceiling. Witt Jr ranks 3rd in the MLB among shortstops in fWAR (4.8), while also leading the position in stolen bases (34) and tying for the lead in home runs (22). Bobby is also managing a low K rate of 18%, despite the early concerns of strikeouts and looks like a young star with no major weaknesses.
His production is in spite of another mediocre Royals season, reflected in a .317 winning percentage. At the trade deadline, the Royals traded away most of the quality bullpen arms they had, while also having conversations about Salvador Perez and Brady Singer. KC GM JJ Picollo knows that this team is likely not competing next year because they simply don’t have the starting pitching depth. The starting rotation ranks 27th in the MLB this season with a 5.12 ERA, with contributions from guys like Jordan Lyles, Greinke, and Singer. Since trading the bullpen away, KC ranks 26th in bullpen production in the 2nd Half with a 5.49 ERA. This kind of pitching production can’t really be supported by any kind of offense, effectively ending the conversation of contention before it begins.
Kansas City may not have the starting pitching talent, but they do have several talented young hitters to build around Bobby Witt Jr. MJ Melendez is hitting .302/.343/.527 in the 2nd Half, while Maikel Garcia looks like an emerging starting 3rd baseman. Rookie catcher Freddie Fermin is hitting .298, while sporting pop and above average defense. This offense should be able to score its share of runs in 2024. The question is how fast and how well JJ can build a competitive pitching staff to win games and make Bobby’s production meaningful. He is arbitration eligible in 2025, which means the Royals need to start communicating with Bobby Witt Sr. to get extension talks moving along. An extension comparison could be Wander Franco, who was signed to an 11 year $182M contract prior to the current scandal going on. Still, this contract is a good comparison as a recent extension for a young superstar shortstop with plenty of team control left. If the price is in that range, the Royals can’t hesitate here to make Witt Jr. their franchise player and give Royals fans a reason to be optimistic.
*Stats are as of 8/21/23