How Good is Seiya Suzuki?
Seiya Suzuki of the Chicago Cubs (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
When Seiya Suzuki was posted by the Hiroshima Carp at the end of the 2021 season he was coming off of a career year, hitting .317/.433/.636 over 134 games. He’d also won four gold gloves in Japan and had a 70 grade arm. He was 27 years old, in the middle of his prime, and looking to contribute to the middle of an MLB lineup. Two years after ultimately signing for 5 years, $85M, Suzuki is a cleanup hitter for a playoff contender. The Cubs also had to pay $15M to the Hiroshima Carp in the form of a posting fee, on top of the $85M. Has he been worth it so far? We’ll take a look and then project his potential performance for the remainder of the contract.
Through two seasons, Suzuki has hit .263/.336/.431, which good for a 112 OPS+, or about 12% above average. Seiya has a 0 DRS, as well as a -1 OAA in over 200 outfield starts, indicating he’s roughly average as a right fielder in the major leagues. By Fangraphs measurement, he was worth about $16.7M in 2022 despite below average defensive metrics. In 2023, Suzuki has better defensive metrics, but has also seen a drop in offensive production, (116 OPS+ in 2022, 108 in 2023). For a guy who hit 38 HR in the NPB just a few years ago, you’d expect power closer to 25-30 HR in the major leagues. Suzuki has hit 20 HR per 162 games since coming over stateside. With the posting fee, Suzuki essentially cost the Cubs $100M over 5 years, so it is fair to say empirically that he has underperformed his contract. However when you dig in a bit more, there is reason to be optimistic about the next three seasons.
For one, Suzuki is a decent outfielder with a cannon for an arm. Baserunners think twice before turning the corner for home when Suzuki comes up with the ball. He’s a decent athlete and projects to be a roughly average outfielder in the foreseeable future. On the offensive side of things, Seiya has a career barrel rate of 10.2%. For context, San Diego Padres star Manny Machado has a 10.2% barrel in 2023. His hard hit percentage in 2023 is 46.7%, which puts him at the same level as guys like Wilson Contreras and Michael Harris Jr. It’s reasonable to expect offensive production somewhere in the range of 110-115 OPS+ from Suzuki.
Seiya does have a 24.2% career K rate, which is on the higher end (Shohei has a 24.2% K rate in 2023). Unlike Shohei, Suzuki walks less than 10% of the time (9.6% career). However, he’s seen an increase in BB% (9.4% to 9.8%) and a decrease in K rate (24.7% to 23.6%). These are improvements to Suzuki’s approach at the game that keeps the ball in play and drives his on base percentage in the right direction. Though he just turned 29, Suzuki is still making adjustments at the major league level, just as major league pitchers made adjustments to him. If Seiya can hit in the 110-15 OPS+ range and play solid in right field, he’ll be worth close to $15M to $20M each season. This is close enough to the contract value to be a win for Chicago, but it’d be nice if he tapped his power a bit more and demonstrated 25-30 homer power. If he does, he could be looking at a few All Star Selections before the end of this deal.
*Stats are as of 8/27/23